Off-grid solar has become the cheapest electricity solution for at least 398 million people still living without power, according to a joint report by the World Bank's Energy Sector Management Assistance Program and the off-grid solar industry association GOGLA, which estimates that bringing reliable electricity to those people will require $11.4 billion in investment between 2027 and 2030.
The report, released this week, treats off-grid systems as permanent infrastructure rather than a stopgap until the grid arrives, noting that 95% of surveyed customers still had working solar home systems four or more years after buying them.
The sector's reach is growing quickly. The number of people using off-grid solar products such as home systems, water pumps, generators and lanterns rose 26% over the past two years, from 118 million to 149 million. The sector supports 219,000 jobs in companies tracked by GOGLA, with full-time employment up 29% between 2021 and 2025, and some 7.4 million people use off-grid solar to run microenterprises or other income-generating activities, generating an estimated $28 billion in additional income and savings over 15 years.
The $11.4 billion investment figure includes $1.3 billion a year in grants and affordability subsidies and $1.6 billion a year in equity, debt and receivables financing. It is a small but critical slice of the $3 trillion to $5 trillion in average annual energy transition investment the world needs by 2030.
High upfront costs remain the main hurdle for poorer communities. Only about a third of unelectrified households can afford an entry-level Tier 1 pay-as-you-go system, another third can do so only at a stretch, and the rest are priced out.
Uptake has been uneven. In Sub-Saharan Africa, 47% of all solar home system sales in 2025 occurred in Kenya, Nigeria and Zambia, and Kenya remains the largest tracked market, with sales jumping 61% between 2023 and 2025 to roughly 2.4 million units. Africa as a whole is on track to install a record 17 gigawatts of capacity in 2026, a 45% increase year on year and the third consecutive record year. Chinese-made solar panels have dropped to 12 cents per watt, down from $5 to $6 per watt at the turn of the millennium. About 94% of panels installed across Africa still come from China, though the continent's panel manufacturing is set to quadruple to about 3.5 GW in 2026.
India had installed 164.59 GW of solar capacity as of July 31, 2026, and its PM Surya Ghar program, which targets rooftop solar for 10 million households, had reached about 5.16 million by mid-August, offering subsidies of up to $820 for residential systems of 3 kW or larger. Pakistan, meanwhile, is undergoing one of the fastest consumer-led solar build-outs, with businesses and households defecting from the national grid; cement giant Bestway Cement has deployed 26 MW of solar at its Chakwal plant, where solar now supplies more than a quarter of the facility's power.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- The finding reframes off-grid solar as a permanent, cheapest solution for nearly 400 million people without electricity, not a temporary fix, and quantifies the investment needed to reach them.
- The $11.4 billion required by 2030, split between grants, subsidies and financing, is small relative to global energy transition spending but is a critical test of whether the poorest households, a third of whom cannot afford entry-level systems, are reached.
- Rapid adoption in Africa, India and Pakistan is already reshaping national grids and economies, with record installation volumes expected in Africa in 2026.
Background
Off-grid solar products, from single lanterns to home systems and water pumps, have been used for years in places where extending the electricity grid is slow or uneconomic. Falling solar panel costs, driven mainly by Chinese manufacturing, have made these systems increasingly affordable, and the new report argues they now outcompete other options for a large share of the unelectrified population.
What to Watch
- Whether the $11.4 billion investment target for 2027 to 2030 is met, particularly the $1.3 billion a year in grants and affordability subsidies needed to reach households priced out of entry-level systems.
- Africa's expected record year in 2026: whether installations reach the projected 17 GW and whether panel manufacturing on the continent quadruples to about 3.5 GW.
- Progress of India's PM Surya Ghar program toward its 10 million household rooftop target, after reaching about 5.16 million by mid-August.
Checked
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 12 supported.
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- SupportedOff-grid solar is the cheapest electricity solution for at least 398 million people still living without power.Oilprice.com: “Off-grid solar is now the cheapest electricity solution for at least 398 million people”
- SupportedThe report estimates that bringing reliable off-grid electricity to those 398 million people will require $11.4 billion between 2027 and 2030.Oilprice.com: “The report estimates that bringing reliable off-grid electricity to those 398 million people will take $11.4 billion between 2027 and 2030.”
- SupportedThe number of people using off-grid solar products rose 26% over two years, from 118 million to 149 million.Oilprice.com: “the number of people using off-grid solar products such as solar home systems, water pumps, generators and lanterns rose by 26% over the past two years, from 118 million to 149 million.”
- SupportedThe report was a joint report by the World Bank’s ESMAP and GOGLA.Oilprice.com: “A joint report released this week by the World Bank’s Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) and the off-grid solar industry association GOGLA”
- SupportedThe report treats off-grid systems as permanent infrastructure rather than a stopgap until grid access arrives.Oilprice.com: “A joint report released this week by the World Bank’s Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) and the off-grid solar industry association GOGLA treats the technology as permanent infrastructure. Systems once sold as a stopgap until the grid arrived”
- Supported95% of surveyed customers still had working solar home systems four or more years after buying them.Oilprice.com: “95% of surveyed customers still had working solar home systems four or more years after buying them.”
- SupportedThe sector supports 219,000 jobs in companies tracked by GOGLA.Oilprice.com: “The sector already supports 219,000 jobs in the companies tracked by GOGLA”
- SupportedThe sector generates an estimated $28 billion in additional income and savings over 15 years.Oilprice.com: “generating an estimated $28 billion in additional income and savings over 15 years.”
- SupportedOnly about a third of unelectrified households can afford an entry-level Tier 1 pay-as-you-go system, another third can do so only at a stretch, and the rest are priced out.Oilprice.com: “Only about a third of unelectrified households can afford an entry-level Tier 1 pay-as-you-go system, another third can do so only at a stretch, and the rest are priced out.”
- SupportedIn Sub-Saharan Africa, Kenya, Nigeria and Zambia accounted for 47% of all solar home system sales in 2025.Oilprice.com: “In Sub-Saharan Africa, 47% of all solar home system sales in 2025 occurred in Kenya, Nigeria and Zambia”
- SupportedAfrica is on track to install a record 17 gigawatts of capacity in 2026.Oilprice.com: “the continent on track to install a record 17 gigawatts (GW) of capacity in 2026.”
- SupportedBestway Cement has deployed 26 MW of solar at its Chakwal plant, where solar supplies more than a quarter of the facility’s power.Oilprice.com: “Pakistan’s cement giant Bestway Cement has deployed 26 MW of solar capacity at its Chakwal plant, where solar now supplies more than a quarter of the facility’s power”