Spanish Intelligence Warned of Mass Ceuta Crossing Before Surge, Declassified Documents Reveal

Spanish intelligence services identified WhatsApp and Facebook groups encouraging migrants to cross into Ceuta on 30 July, according to documents declassified by the government amid accusations it failed to disclose the full story of the influx. The CNI reported that around 180,000 people were receiving the messages, some of which urged migrants to take advantage of Throne Day celebrations when authorities would be distracted.

The CNI's note on 29 July warned that migrants planned to reach the Spanish exclave both by swimming around the border fence and by climbing it. At least 72,000 migrants crossed from Morocco into Ceuta on 30 and 31 July, with at least 100 deaths reported during the crossing, according to figures from Ceuta's mayor. Although most returned, up to 5,000 remain in makeshift camps or sleeping on the city's streets and beaches, leading to local unrest. Residents have expressed safety concerns and some have destroyed shelters and blocked aid to the migrants.

Prime Minister Sánchez had previously told parliament that there was "no information that conveyed the magnitude" of the "crisis we were going to suffer" on the last two days of July. Opposition parties argue the declassified documents prove the government misled Spaniards. The documents were released as part of a transparency effort following political pressure, though the government maintains that the scale of the eventual surge was not foreseeable.

The influx has strained relations between Spain and Morocco, with humanitarian organisations calling for a coordinated response. The situation in Ceuta remains tense as local authorities struggle to manage the thousands still present.

Why This Matters

The revelations undermine the Spanish government's narrative, potentially eroding public trust in its handling of migration crises.
The scale of the crossing — the largest in Ceuta's recent history — highlights persistent vulnerabilities in EU border security and the human cost of irregular migration.
The aftermath, with thousands still in makeshift camps, is fuelling social tensions in Ceuta and may influence domestic politics ahead of future elections.

Background

Ceuta is a small Spanish autonomous city on the north coast of Africa, sharing a land border with Morocco. It is one of two Spanish exclaves on the continent (alongside Melilla) and serves as the European Union's only land border with Africa. The territory has long been a flashpoint for migration, with periodic mass crossing attempts. Spain and Morocco have a complex bilateral relationship that includes cooperation on border control, though tensions can spike when large numbers attempt to cross.

Key Perspectives

[Spanish Government (PSOE)]: Maintains that while some warnings existed, the scale of the crossing — 72,000 people in two days — was unprecedented and could not have been anticipated. Points to the declassification as a sign of transparency. [Opposition Parties (PP, Vox)]: Accuse Prime Minister Sánchez of deliberately misleading parliament. Argue that the CNI warning shows the government had clear intelligence and failed to act or was negligent in failing to prevent the crisis. [Ceuta Residents and Local Authorities]: Express concern over security and strain on public services. Some locals have resorted to blocking aid, reflecting frustration with both the government's response and the ongoing presence of migrants.

What to Watch

Whether further declassified documents or parliamentary inquiries produce additional evidence of government inaction.
The condition of the estimated 5,000 migrants still in Ceuta — could humanitarian conditions worsen and trigger a new crisis?
Spain-Morocco diplomatic relations: Morocco's role in allowing or preventing crossings and any potential deal-making or recriminations.

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