Sudan's Civil War: RSF Defeat Risks Fragmentation, Not Peace

The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have made significant gains against the RSF in recent months, recapturing key cities and strategic infrastructure. However, these advances have been achieved through a fragile alliance with various rebel groups and local militias, raising questions about what happens once the shared adversary is gone.

According to sources familiar with the dynamics, the SAF-led coalition includes factions with competing territorial claims, ethnic loyalties, and grievances dating back decades. The RSF's defeat, while a major military milestone, would remove the only unifying factor keeping these groups aligned.

"The army's battlefield gains rely on an armed coalition it may struggle to control once the common enemy is gone," a regional analyst told Zotpaper. "We're looking at the potential for a chain reaction of localized conflicts among former allies."

The war, which erupted in April 2023 between the SAF under General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the RSF led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, has killed tens of thousands and displaced millions. International mediation efforts, including talks in Jeddah and elsewhere, have failed to produce a lasting ceasefire.

In areas recently liberated from RSF control, reports of looting, revenge attacks, and power struggles between coalition factions have emerged. Meanwhile, the RSF itself may not dissolve entirely but could fragment into guerrilla cells or merge with other armed groups, perpetuating violence in peripheral regions.

The humanitarian situation remains dire. Access to aid is limited in conflict zones, and famine-like conditions have been reported in parts of Darfur and Kordofan. The UN estimates that over 25 million people need assistance.

Calls for a comprehensive political settlement have grown louder, but the SAF leadership has signaled little willingness to negotiate, emboldened by its military momentum. Critics argue that without an inclusive peace process, the cycle of violence will continue.

"This is not a victory that leads to stability," a Sudanese civil society leader said. "It's a pause before the next phase of conflict."

Why This Matters

Broader significance: A fragmented conflict in Sudan could destabilize the entire Horn of Africa region, triggering refugee flows, regional military interventions, and renewed proxy wars.
Humanitarian impact: Millions of civilians in conflict zones face continued violence, displacement, and food insecurity as the security situation remains unpredictable.
Prospects for peace: The failure to forge a unified political settlement after the RSF's defeat could dash hopes for a durable end to the war, prolonging suffering.

Background

The Sudanese civil war began in April 2023 when long-simmering tensions between the SAF and RSF erupted into open fighting. The two forces had previously collaborated to overthrow President Omar al-Bashir in 2019, but disputes over integration and control of lucrative resources—particularly gold mines—led to a breakdown. The RSF, a paramilitary force with roots in the Janjaweed militias of the Darfur conflict, proved a formidable opponent, seizing large swaths of territory and committing widespread atrocities. The SAF, under General Burhan, initially struggled to contain the RSF but gradually gained ground by forming alliances with rebel groups that had fought the government during the Bashir era. These include the Sudan Liberation Movement and other Darfur-based factions. International mediation efforts, including U.S.-Saudi-brokered talks, have repeatedly stalled due to mistrust and competing external interests, with the UAE, Egypt, and Russia all involved through arms supplies or diplomatic support.

Key Perspectives

Sudanese Armed Forces: Argue that destroying the RSF is a necessary step to restore state authority and end banditry. They view their allied militias as temporary partners and claim they have plans to disarm and integrate them after the war. RSF and its allies: Deny imminent defeat and call for negotiations on their terms. They warn that the SAF's intolerance for compromise will lead to endless conflict and accuse the army of harboring remnants of the old regime. Civil society and human rights groups: Fear that neither side is committed to a civilian-led transition. They advocate for an immediate ceasefire and an inclusive peace process that addresses root causes: marginalization, inequality, and lack of accountability for war crimes.

What to Watch

Fractures within the SAF coalition: Reports of clashes or defections among allied groups could signal the start of fragmentation.
RSF's ability to regroup: Whether its leadership can maintain cohesion or whether it splinters into localized militia networks.
International response: Shifts in support from key backers—such as the UAE reducing arms supplies or the US ramping up sanctions—could alter the military balance.
Humanitarian access: A spike in aid worker deaths or obstruction could trigger a major famine or international intervention.

ZOTPAPER