Documents obtained by the ABC under right-to-information reveal that in July 2025, the Tasmanian government was told Liberty Bell Bay "may run out of available capital by the end of July" and was given four options. A paper from the state's coordinator-general, John Perry, recommended an urgent loan of up to $20 million, stating there was a "very high risk" the smelter would not be able to restart without an immediate capital injection.
The paper rated every risk category for the loan as "high", including the risk that the value of security provided would not cover the outstanding amount. It also noted that Liberty Bell Bay's owner, GFG Group, appeared "unable and/or unwilling to provide any capital into the business".
However, the document concluded that the risks of doing nothing were greater. It estimated the smelter's closure could impact the state economy by $500 million a year if it failed to reopen. The other options considered were a staged financial support package, a sale through US-based private equity firm White Oak, or a smaller loan conditional on security that could force administration. The sale option was deemed "more than what is required" and not good value for money.
Minister for Business, Industry and Resources Felix Ellis said the government stood by its decision to give workers the best possible chance of a future. "We understood the risks were present, but the released documents show the advice was that the consequences of doing nothing were greater," he said in a statement. He said the loan was secured, funds were paid directly to the ore supplier, and state-appointed receivers were pursuing recovery through the secured ore.
The smelter's administrator, EY Parthenon, said it believed the company had been insolvent from as early as May 1, 2025. However, Liberty Bell Bay's directors signed a solvency declaration in August 2025 before the loan was executed.