Texas Republicans have lost at least six congressional seats in the 2026 midterm elections, with the final tally possibly reaching seven as one race remained too close to call. The outcome defied party hopes of gaining ground through redistricting and instead delivered substantial Democratic gains in a state with the nation's second-largest congressional delegation.
According to unofficial results reported by The Center Square, Democrats swept all five seats on the Mexican border. Heading into the election, Republicans held 25 seats to Democrats’ 12 in the 38-member delegation.
Thirteen members elected in 2024 were not returning to Congress. Of the 12 open races, Republicans won seven and Democrats won five.
In the 15th District, Republican Monica De La Cruz lost by a 30-point margin to Latin Grammy singer Bobby Palido, who has never run for political office. Speaker of the US House Mike Johnson had campaigned in South Texas hoping to build momentum, encouraging voters not to believe polls that showed Democrats ahead. According to The Center Square, he was partially correct that the polls did not accurately reflect voter outcomes, but far more voters cast ballots for Democrats than expected, including Hispanic and Republican voters who cited the economic policies of the Trump administration.
Democrats also won the 23rd District seat of former Representative Tony Gonzales, who was forced to resign. Former Representative Colin Allred, who lost a Senate bid to Ted Cruz in 2024, returned to the House after winning the newly drawn 33rd District. In the 2nd District race, Republican state Representative Steve Toth is tied 50-50 with Democrat Shaun Finnie, a result that could take the Republican loss to seven seats.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- The loss reshapes the political map of Texas, a state Republicans had banked on for future House gains.
- The Democratic sweep of all five border districts signals a significant shift among Hispanic voters, a key voting bloc for both parties.
- The results immediately alter the balance of power in the US House and will influence the next Congress's legislative agenda.
Background
Texas Republicans controlled the redistricting process and expected to gain as many as five seats. Instead, a wave of open seats driven by retirements, a resignation and the death of an incumbent, combined with strong Democratic turnout in South Texas, produced a net loss. The election was the first under the new congressional map.
Key Perspectives
South Texas voters: According to The Center Square, many Hispanic and Republican voters in the region shifted toward Democrats, citing the economic policies of the Trump administration.
Speaker Mike Johnson: Campaigning in the region, he argued the polls were wrong and urged voters to back Republican candidates. He was partially correct that the polls did not perfectly predict the margin, but the Democratic vote exceeded expectations.
What to Watch
- The result of the 2nd District race, which will determine whether the Republican loss totals six or seven seats.
- How the shift in border districts affects the incoming Congress's debates on trade, immigration and economic policy.
- The long-term effect on the Texas GOP's electoral strategy and candidate recruitment in 2028.