Tigray's fragile recovery under strain as fighting reignites and salaries go unpaid

Federal forces retook Mekelle on October 4; residents face unpaid salaries, disrupted studies and fears of a wider Ethiopia-Eritrea conflict

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Shops and banks are reopening in Mekelle, the capital of Ethiopia's Tigray region, but residents remain anxious after federal forces and allied fighters retook the city on October 4, reviving fears that a fragile recovery from the 2020-2022 war could be derailed. Competing claims about Eritrean troop movements near the border have raised the possibility of a wider conflict.

Reopening, but hardship remains

Businesses and financial services are gradually reopening in Mekelle, yet many households are struggling to afford necessities. Delayed salaries have left public employees struggling to cover food, rent and school costs, while years of conflict have depleted family savings.

"Things may be reopening, but that does not mean our problems are over. We still have expenses every day, and without our salaries, it is difficult to know how we will manage," said Gebregziabher, a public servant in Mekelle.

The funding crisis extends across the public sector. In March, Tigray's interim administration said it could no longer cover monthly salaries for about 137,000 civil servants because expected federal budget transfers had not arrived. In April, the regional finance bureau reported an 8.5-billion-birr (about $52,000) funding shortfall affecting salary payments and development projects.

Students fear losing more time

Renewed fighting has revived fears among students of another interruption to their education. Many already lost study time during the previous war and worry about falling further behind. Shewit, a grade 10 student in Adigrat, said uncertainty about classes and security had left him worried about his future.

"I have already lost so much time because of the war. I am afraid that if our education is disrupted again, I will lose another year and fall further behind," he said.

Some university students have left Tigray for Addis Ababa to seek transfers to other public universities. The Ministry of Education announced temporary placements at universities elsewhere in the country for students enrolled at institutions in Tigray. More than 5,000 returning students had applied by September 17-18, according to reporting on the ministry's programme.

Abel, a third-year student at Axum University, said: "I didn't want to leave, but I also can't keep putting my education on hold. I came to Addis to see if I can transfer to another university and continue my studies. I just want to finish what I started."

Border communities fear a wider conflict

Near the Eritrean border, military movements and conflicting accounts of troop deployments have heightened fears that fighting could spread beyond Tigray. On October 8, The Associated Press reported claims by a commander allied with Ethiopia's government that Eritrean troops had entered Adigrat and, the following day, Idaga Hamus. The AP said it could not independently verify the accounts. The conflict-monitoring organisation ACLED separately reported Eritrean troops crossing the border at Zalambessa. On October 13, Reuters reported that Ethiopian government forces had advanced into Zalambessa, citing people in contact with residents and other sources, though it remained unclear whether Eritrean troops or Tigrayan opposition fighters were still present.

The developments have unfolded amid worsening relations between Addis Ababa and Asmara. On October 8, Ethiopia's foreign minister, Gedion Timothewos, accused Eritrea of sending troops as far as 60km (37 miles) into Ethiopian territory in several areas of Tigray and appealed to the UN Security Council to respond. Eritrea denied invading Ethiopian territory, saying the accusations amounted to a declaration of war, and called on the Security Council to take action against Ethiopia. The two countries fought on the same side during the 2020-2022 Tigray war, when Eritrean forces supported the federal government against the TPLF.

An uncertain road ahead

On October 16, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced a six-month caretaker administration for Tigray, tasked with restoring public services, helping displaced people return and preparing the region for elections. The federal government says the temporary administration will help restore stability and pave the way for elected regional leadership. The TPLF has opposed the federal advance, and it remains uncertain how effectively the new administration will operate.

For residents, the immediate concerns are whether salaries will be paid, schools and health facilities will function, and displaced families can return safely. In Zalambessa, Gebrehiwot said residents knew from experience what another conflict could bring.

"People are worried because we know what war means for this area. We have already suffered enough, and nobody wants to see things reach that point again," he said.

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Analysis

Why This Matters

  • Renewed conflict could unravel Tigray's recovery from the 2020-2022 war, deepening a public-sector funding crisis that has already left about 137,000 civil servants without salaries.
  • Students who lost years of study to the previous war face another interruption, delaying graduation and entry into employment.
  • A direct confrontation between Ethiopia and Eritrea would widen the war beyond Tigray and destabilise the Horn of Africa.

Background

Tigray is still recovering from the 2020-2022 war between Ethiopia's federal government and the TPLF, the region's dominant political movement. Eritrean forces fought alongside the federal side during that conflict. Federal forces and allied fighters retook Mekelle and other major towns in early October, and the two neighbours have since traded accusations over troop movements near the border, each appealing to the UN Security Council.

Key Perspectives

Residents and students: Reopening is welcome but only partial. Without reliable incomes, security and functioning schools, they say, the return to normality is fragile.

Ethiopian federal government: Says the six-month caretaker administration will restore public services, help displaced people return and prepare the region for elections. It accuses Eritrea of sending troops into Tigray and has asked the Security Council to respond.

Eritrea: Denies invading Ethiopian territory, describes Ethiopia's accusations as a declaration of war and has counter-appealed to the Security Council.

The TPLF: Opposes the federal advance; it is unclear how the incoming administration will operate across the region.

What to Watch

  • Whether federal budget transfers resume and the caretaker administration can pay salaries to civil servants in Tigray.
  • Confirmation of who controls border towns such as Zalambessa, Adigrat and Idaga Hamus, where accounts of deployments conflict.
  • Any UN Security Council response to the competing Ethiopian and Eritrean appeals.
  • Whether the Ministry of Education's transfer programme proceeds for the more than 5,000 students who applied by mid-September.

Sources

Checked

12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 10 supported.

Show each claim
  1. Partly supportedThe headline says fighting has reignited and salaries are going unpaid.Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: “renewed fighting raised fears that the region’s fragile recovery could be derailed once again”
  2. Partly supportedThe summary says students are facing disrupted studies.Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: “renewed fighting has revived fears of another interruption to their education. Many already lost valuable study time during the previous war”
  3. SupportedFederal forces and allied fighters retook Mekelle on October 4.Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: “Ethiopian federal forces and allied fighters retook the Tigray regional capital on October 4”
  4. SupportedGebregziabher said, “Things may be reopening, but that does not mean our problems are over. We still have expenses every day, and without our salaries, it is difficult to know how we will manage.”Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: ““Things may be reopening, but that does not mean our problems are over. We still have expenses every day, and without our salaries, it is difficult to know how we will manage,” said Gebregziabher, a public servant in Mekelle.”
  5. SupportedShewit said, “I have already lost so much time because of the war. I am afraid that if our education is disrupted again, I will lose another year and fall further behind.”Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: ““I have already lost so much time because of the war. I am afraid that if our education is disrupted again, I will lose another year and fall further behind,” he said.”
  6. SupportedAbel said, “I didn't want to leave, but I also can't keep putting my education on hold. I came to Addis to see if I can transfer to another university and continue my studies. I just want to finish what I started.”Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: ““I didn’t want to leave, but I also can’t keep putting my education on hold. I came to Addis to see if I can transfer to another university and continue my studies. I just want to finish what I started,” he said.”
  7. SupportedGebrehiwot said, “People are worried because we know what war means for this area. We have already suffered enough, and nobody wants to see things reach that point again.”Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: ““People are worried because we know what war means for this area. We have already suffered enough, and nobody wants to see things reach that point again,” he said.”
  8. SupportedTigray's interim administration said it could no longer cover monthly salaries for about 137,000 civil servants because expected federal budget transfers had not arrived.Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: “In March, Tigray’s interim administration said it could no longer cover monthly salaries for about 137,000 civil servants because expected federal budget transfers had not arrived.”
  9. SupportedThe regional finance bureau reported an 8.5-billion-birr (about $52,000) funding shortfall affecting salary payments and development projects.Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: “In April, the regional finance bureau reported an 8.5-billion-birr (about $52,000) funding shortfall affecting salary payments and development projects.”
  10. SupportedThe AP reported claims that Eritrean troops entered Adigrat and Idaga Hamus the following day, and said it could not independently verify the accounts.Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: “On October 8, The Associated Press reported claims by a commander allied with Ethiopia’s government that Eritrean troops had entered Adigrat earlier that week and Idaga Hamus the following day. The AP said it could not independently verify those accounts.”
  11. SupportedEthiopia's foreign minister accused Eritrea of sending troops as far as 60km (37 miles) into Ethiopian territory in several areas of Tigray.Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: “On October 8, Ethiopia’s foreign minister, Gedion Timothewos, accused Eritrea of sending troops as far as 60km (37 miles) into Ethiopian territory in several areas of Tigray”
  12. SupportedOn October 16, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced a six-month caretaker administration for Tigray with the stated tasks of restoring services, helping displaced people return and preparing for elections.Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: “On October 16, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced a six-month caretaker administration for Tigray, tasked with restoring public services, helping displaced people return and preparing the region for elections.”

Zotpaper

Written by June Katz on the World desk. Claims checked by Ines Fairley, verification. Read for legal risk by Marcus Hale, legal. Edited by Angus Burke, chief sub.

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