Vannacci's 'manosphere' play reshapes Italy's right before spring elections

Polling near 8 percent, the ex-paratrooper's National Future party could decide whether Giorgia Meloni can build a ruling coalition

By LineZotpaper
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Former paratrooper General Roberto Vannacci is turning a deliberately provocative online persona aimed at the "manosphere" into an 8 percent polling share, forcing Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni to decide before elections expected next spring whether to bring his movement into a right-wing coalition.

Roberto Vannacci, a former paratrooper general who served in Iraq and Afghanistan, built his political rise on provocation. In 2023 his self-published book "The World Upside Down" attacked immigration, feminism and homosexuality, telling gay people: "You are not normal, get over it." He collected more than half a million votes standing for the anti-immigration League in the 2024 European elections and founded National Future in February.

His social media persona is a deliberate play to the "manosphere," according to analysts who study the far right. He has posted AI-generated images of himself as a Roman legionary and charioteer, declared he prefers women "without skirts," and shared an AI-generated image of junior minister Matilde Siracusano with exaggerated cleavage. "It is disgusting to think you can manipulate the image of a woman for such deplorable propaganda," Siracusano, a centre-right member of Meloni's coalition, told POLITICO.

The party calls its preferred social order "Mediterranean patriarchy." Its program promises to form "strong men" capable of controlling their emotions and passions, protecting women and sacrificing themselves for society. It opposes the recently introduced crime of femicide, condemns feminism, and declares the defense of life "from conception to natural death" and the "natural family" among its non-negotiable values. It proposes paying parents who leave work to raise children and rewarding parents of large families with tax exemption and public sector jobs, proposals that echo the fascist-era "Battle for Births" under Benito Mussolini. The program's principal author is Lorenzo Gasperini, a conservative Catholic philosophy teacher from Tuscany who has opposed vaccines and abortion rights and blamed feminism for violence against women.

Defenders say the label is misunderstood. National Future parliamentarian Emanuele Pozzolo, who defected from Meloni's Brothers of Italy, called the "without skirts" remark "extremely funny" and compared Vannacci's ability to connect with ordinary Italians to Silvio Berlusconi's. He said Mediterranean patriarchy is "exactly the opposite" of male supremacy: recovering, preserving and passing on "the responsibilities of being a man within the family and society," while rejecting violence or coercive control. Vannacci told a rally in Orvieto that the concept means "duty, fidelity, sacrifice," not "oppression and possession," and praised it as the family model that allowed "us to prevail over the last 2,000 years."

Critics are unconvinced. Elisa Ercoli, president of the women's rights organization Differenza Donna, condemned the program as "a return to the supremacy of the white, cisgender alpha male, and the woman as his handmaiden." Luca Sforzini, a former Vannacci ideologue who has broken with him, said the Mediterranean label was clever marketing that concealed a patriarchal model behind "bucolic, positive images."

Federica Formato, a lecturer at Brighton University who studies gender and the far right, said Vannacci is "testing the waters" to see whether he can reach a younger male audience, tapping into what she calls the "aggrieved entitlement" of young men. Polling analysis suggests about 62 percent of National Future's prospective voters are male, including strong support among manual workers and the unemployed. Pozzolo denied the party deliberately targets male voters, insisting it aims to reach Italians of all backgrounds who feel unrepresented.

The arithmetic makes Vannacci hard to ignore. With elections expected next spring, National Future polls at about 8 percent, drawing voters from Meloni's Brothers of Italy and Matteo Salvini's League. Italy's electoral law offers a parliamentary majority bonus to coalitions that win at least 42 percent of the vote, so his share could prove decisive. Vannacci has opened the door to an alliance with Meloni, describing National Future as a natural partner for the centre-right while insisting any deal must respect his party's principles. Meloni, Italy's first female prime minister, must now weigh whether he is an asset or a liability.

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Analysis

Why This Matters

  • National Future's roughly 8 percent polling share could determine whether Italy's centre-right clears the 42 percent threshold that triggers a parliamentary majority bonus under the country's electoral law.
  • An alliance would bring a movement opposed to the newly introduced femicide crime and openly critical of feminism to the edge of government in a G7 country.
  • The campaign tests whether online male-grievance politics, the "manosphere," can convert into conventional electoral power in Europe.

Background

Vannacci, a career soldier who served in Iraq and Afghanistan, became a media sensation in 2023 with the self-published "The World Upside Down," a broadside against immigration, feminism and homosexuality. He won more than half a million votes as a League candidate in the 2024 European elections and founded National Future in February. The party's "Mediterranean patriarchy" program blends conservative Catholic teaching on family and sexuality with older Italian ideals of virility and newer online politics of male grievance. Meloni, Italy's first female prime minister, leads a right-wing coalition that includes the League and the centre-right, and parties to her right have been competing for the same voters.

Key Perspectives

Vannacci and National Future: The party presents Mediterranean patriarchy as a recovery of male responsibility rather than supremacy. Pozzolo insists the aim is for men to show women respect, love and protection, with genuine abuse punished, and he rejects any suggestion of "oppression and possession."

Meloni and the centre-right: Siracusano's condemnation of the manipulated image shows how much Vannacci's tactics unsettle Meloni's coalition, yet the electoral arithmetic could make his votes necessary. Meloni must decide whether he strengthens the right or damages it.

Critics and women's rights groups: Ercoli describes the program as a return to the supremacy of the "white, cisgender alpha male," with women as his "handmaiden." Sforzini calls the Mediterranean branding a mask for a patriarchal model, and Formato sees provocation as a calculated route to the "aggrieved entitlement" of young men.

What to Watch

  • Whether Meloni opens or rules out an alliance with National Future before the spring vote.
  • Whether National Future's polling holds near 8 percent or climbs as the campaign draws closer.
  • Whether the right-wing coalition can reach the 42 percent threshold on its own, which would determine Vannacci's leverage in any negotiations.

Sources

Checked

8 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 5 supported.

Show each claim
  1. Not in the sourcesVannacci's rise is reshaping Italy's right before spring elections.Politico Europe
  2. Not in the sourcesVannacci is turning his deliberately provocative online persona into an 8 percent polling share.Politico Europe
  3. Partly supportedNational Future could decide whether Meloni can build a ruling coalition.Politico Europe: “With elections expected next spring, his National Future party is polling at about 8%, making him a potentially crucial factor in building a right-wing coalition.”
  4. SupportedVannacci's book told gay people, “You are not normal, get over it.”Politico Europe: “In it, he told gay people: “You are not normal, get over it.””
  5. SupportedSiracusano said, “It is disgusting to think you can manipulate the image of a woman for such deplorable propaganda.”Politico Europe: ““It is disgusting to think you can manipulate the image of a woman for such deplorable propaganda,” the center-right junior minister in Meloni’s coalition whose image was manipulated, Matilde Siracusano, told POLITICO.”
  6. SupportedVannacci's National Future party polls at about 8 percent.Politico Europe: “With elections expected next spring, his National Future party is polling at about 8%”
  7. SupportedAbout 62 percent of National Future's prospective voters are male, with strong support among manual workers and the unemployed.Politico Europe: “Polling analysis suggests that about 62% of National Future’s prospective voters are male, including strong support among manual workers and the unemployed.”
  8. SupportedCoalitions winning at least 42 percent of the vote qualify for a parliamentary majority bonus under Italy's electoral law.Politico Europe: “With Italy’s new electoral law offering a parliamentary majority bonus to coalitions winning at least 42 percent of the vote, those votes could matter.”

Zotpaper

Written by Rex Doyle on the World desk. Claims checked by Ines Fairley, verification. Read for legal risk by Marcus Hale, legal. Edited by Angus Burke, chief sub.

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