Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has proposed withdrawing more than 21 percent of the country's National Fund, around 6.5 trillion tenge ($14.4 billion), to finance infrastructure projects through 2029, abandoning an earlier goal of growing the sovereign wealth fund to $100 billion. In an October 28 national address, Tokayev declared that 'Kazakhstan must turn into one big construction site.'
The National Fund, a sovereign wealth fund established in 2000 and supplied by oil and gas tax revenues, currently holds approximately $66.7 billion, according to RFE/RL. Tokayev's proposal scraps a 2022 target, set after the Qandy Qantar unrest as part of his 'Fair Kazakhstan' agenda, to increase the fund's assets to $100 billion by 2030.
From 2026 through the first two months of 2027, 1.5 trillion tenge ($3.3 billion) would be allocated for social projects. 'I am confident that no one will object if we call this initiative a "People's Construction Project,"' Tokayev said.
Tokayev outlined a range of infrastructure priorities. 'Particular focus should be placed on developing logistics infrastructure,' he said, mentioning the Bakhty-Ayagoz rail line to the Chinese border, expected by end of 2027, and the Aral-Caspian Highway, which 'will shorten the route along the Trans-Caspian Corridor by approximately 1,000 kilometers, reducing cargo delivery time to three days.' He criticized the quality of roads and local executive bodies, saying, 'They kicked the issue around and did everything possible to drown the problem in an impassable swamp.'
On energy, Tokayev set an ambition for Kazakhstan to achieve a 'sustainable energy surplus' by 2029 using a mix of sources including 'clean coal' and renewables. He praised the 2024 referendum approving nuclear power as the 'correct decision,' though that vote took place under heavy government pressure on critics. He also addressed critical minerals, cautioning that 'new businesses should not create obstacles for existing businesses in the local area,' referencing the Qarmet steel plant (formerly ArcelorMittal Temirtau), and suggesting similar facilities were planned in three other regions. 'It is obvious that the benefits of such inappropriate decisions are questionable,' he said without clarifying, adding that 'the role of the government in this matter needs to be significantly strengthened.'
A 2025 U.S. State Department report on Kazakhstan's investment climate acknowledged 'significant progress' but noted restrictions on foreign ownership, including a 20 percent ceiling on media and 49 percent limit on air transport, and said foreign companies sometimes face bureaucratic hurdles and inconsistent enforcement. Tokayev later called for 'investment policy management should be concentrated in a single center,' criticizing 'chaotic and uncoordinated' actions by departments. He concluded by ordering reforms to the public administration system, stating, 'Civil servants must serve as models of competence. Unfortunately, we are not seeing this yet.'
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Analysis
Why This Matters
The drawdown from the National Fund marks a major policy shift from savings to spending, potentially affecting Kazakhstan's fiscal stability and long-term reserves.
The infrastructure push could accelerate economic growth and regional connectivity, especially along the Trans-Caspian Corridor, but risks inefficiency given Tokayev's own criticism of bureaucratic inertia.
International investors are watching closely: Tokayev's call for centralized investment management and his vague warnings about new business obstacles may signal tighter state control.
Background
Kazakhstan's National Fund, created in 2000, is a sovereign wealth fund primarily funded by oil and gas revenues. In 2022, following the Qandy Qantar unrest, Tokayev set a target to grow the fund to $100 billion by 2030 as part of a 'Fair Kazakhstan' agenda. The new spending plan abandons that target. The country has long grappled with poor infrastructure and bureaucratic inefficiency, which Tokayev acknowledged in his speech.
What to Watch
Completion of the Bakhty-Ayagoz rail line to the Chinese border by end of 2027.
The pace of public administration reforms Tokayev ordered, including the centralization of investment policy.
Reactions from foreign investors, especially concerning critical minerals and the new 'single center' for investment management.
10 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 7 supported.
Show each claim
Not in the sourcesThe proposal is an infrastructure “splurge.”The Diplomat: “proposing that the government dip into the National Fund, to the tune of 6.5 trillion tenge (approximately $14.4 billion at the current exchange rate) to fund projects through 2029.”
Partly supportedThe proposed 6.5 trillion tenge withdrawal is specifically to finance infrastructure projects through 2029.The Diplomat: “proposing that the government dip into the National Fund, to the tune of 6.5 trillion tenge (approximately $14.4 billion at the current exchange rate) to fund projects through 2029.”
SupportedTokayev proposed drawing more than 21 percent of the National Fund, about 6.5 trillion tenge or $14.4 billion.The Diplomat: “That represents more than 21 percent of the National Fund”
SupportedTokayev said, “Kazakhstan must turn into one big construction site.”The Diplomat: ““Kazakhstan must turn into one big construction site,” President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev proclaimed”
SupportedTokayev scrapped the earlier goal of growing the National Fund to $100 billion by 2030.The Diplomat: “Tokayev’s new ambition scraps a previous goal, stated in 2022 in the wake of the Qandy Qantar events as part of his “Fair Kazakhstan” pitch, to increase the National Fund’s assets to $100 billion by 2030.”
SupportedFrom 2026 through the first two months of 2027, 1.5 trillion tenge ($3.3 billion) would go to social projects.The Diplomat: “From 2026 through the first two months of 2027, Tokayev said in his recent speech, 1.5 trillion tenge ($3.3 billion) would be allocated for social projects.”
SupportedThe National Fund holds about $66.7 billion, according to RFE/RL.The Diplomat: “RFE/RL reported that the fund currently holds around $66.7 billion.”
Partly supportedTokayev praised the 2024 referendum as the correct decision, and the referendum approved nuclear power.The Diplomat: “praising as the “correct decision” the approval of a referendum on the topic in 2024.”
SupportedThe 2024 referendum took place under heavy government pressure on critics.The Diplomat: “That referendum took place under heavy government pressure on critics of nuclear power.”
SupportedThe U.S. State Department report noted a 20 percent foreign-ownership ceiling for media and a 49 percent limit for air transport.The Diplomat: “a 20 percent ceiling on foreign ownership of media outlets and a 49 percent limit on domestic and international air transportation services”
Correction
An earlier version of this story presented The Diplomat's description of local bodies treating the issue like a football as Tokayev's exact words. He said, 'They kicked the issue around.'