Trump approval sinks to 36 per cent two weeks before US midterms, poll finds

New York Times/Siena survey shows voter frustration centred on the economy, cost of living and the Iran war

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Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to 36 per cent, the lowest figure recorded in a New York Times/Siena College poll, two weeks before the US midterm elections, with most respondents saying they disapprove of his handling of the economy, the cost of living and the war with Iran.

The October survey of roughly 3,494 likely voters found 59 per cent disapproved of the president's performance, while 52 per cent said they planned to vote for the Democratic candidate in the upcoming election.

Disapproval was concentrated on economic issues. On gas prices, 73 per cent of registered voters said they disapproved; on the cost of living, 69 per cent; and on the economy, 64 per cent. About 65 per cent disapproved of Mr Trump's handling of the Iran war, which has run for nearly eight months and pushed up gas and oil prices.

The figures underline the distance between the president's 2024 promises and current conditions. Mr Trump campaigned on lowering everyday costs, keeping inflation low and avoiding new wars abroad. As of 21 October, gas prices stood above $4.25 a gallon and inflation had risen to 3.7 per cent last month. His approval rating dropped two percentage points between September and October in the same poll series.

The numbers complicate Republican efforts to hold their congressional majorities. Mr Trump has been on the road campaigning for MAGA-aligned candidates, though some candidates have sought to distance themselves from a president whose economic policies have made him increasingly unpopular.

Democratic candidates have seized on cost-of-living concerns to appeal to independents and undecided voters, promising to rein in policies that have pushed up costs, such as tariffs. However, the party is still fighting against a substantial financial war chest in competitive races in Texas, Ohio, New York, Alaska and Iowa.

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Analysis

Why This Matters

  • An approval rating at its lowest recorded level in the New York Times/Siena College poll two weeks out signals serious headwinds for Republicans defending their congressional majorities.
  • Voter frustration is concentrated on exactly the issues Mr Trump promised to fix in 2024: the economy, the cost of living and avoiding new wars.
  • A Democratic swing in the midterms would change the balance of power in Washington in the president's second term.

Background

Midterm elections decide control of Congress, and a president's approval rating is widely treated as a leading indicator of how the incumbent party will fare. Mr Trump campaigned in 2024 on lowering everyday costs, keeping inflation low and keeping the US out of new wars, and the poll suggests voters are judging him against those promises as the Iran war pushes up gas and oil prices.

Key Perspectives

Republicans: Mr Trump is campaigning heavily for MAGA-aligned candidates, drawing on his name recognition, but some candidates are distancing themselves as his popularity slides. Democrats: They are using cost-of-living concerns to appeal to independents and undecided voters, promising to roll back policies such as tariffs, while still facing a financial disadvantage in several competitive states. Voters: The poll shows large majorities disapproving of the president's handling of gas prices, the cost of living, the economy and the Iran war.

What to Watch

  • Whether the president's approval rating falls further in the final stretch of polling before the November midterms.
  • How many Republican candidates continue to distance themselves from the president.
  • The path of gas prices and inflation over the next two weeks, and any moves to ease the Iran war.

Sources

Checked

12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 12 supported.

Show each claim
  1. SupportedTrump’s approval rating was 36 per cent.World news | The Guardian: “Donald Trump ’s approval rating sank to 36% just two weeks before the midterm elections”
  2. SupportedThe 36 per cent figure was the lowest recorded in a New York Times/Siena College poll.World news | The Guardian: “the lowest recorded in a poll by the New York Times/Siena College”
  3. SupportedThe poll was reported two weeks before the US midterm elections.World news | The Guardian: “Donald Trump ’s approval rating sank to 36% just two weeks before the midterm elections”
  4. SupportedThe poll found voter frustration with Trump’s handling of the economy, cost of living and Iran war.World news | The Guardian: “with most respondents expressing frustration over his handling of the US economy, cost of living and Iran war.”
  5. SupportedThe October survey included approximately 3,494 likely voters.World news | The Guardian: “In an October survey of approximately 3,494 likely voters”
  6. SupportedIn the survey, 59 per cent said they disapproved of Trump’s handling of his job.World news | The Guardian: “59% said they disapproved of Trump’s handling of his job”
  7. SupportedIn the survey, 52 per cent said they planned to vote for the Democratic candidate.World news | The Guardian: “52% said they planned to vote for the Democratic candidate in the upcoming election.”
  8. SupportedDisapproval was 73 per cent on gas prices, 69 per cent on the cost of living and 64 per cent on the economy.World news | The Guardian: “On gas prices, 73% of registered voters said they disapproved; on the cost of living, 69% said they disapproved, and on the economy , 64% said they disapproved.”
  9. SupportedApproximately 65 per cent disapproved of Trump’s handling of the Iran war.World news | The Guardian: “Approximately 65% said they disapproved of Trump’s handling of the Iran war”
  10. SupportedThe Iran war had lasted nearly eight months and pushed gas and oil prices up.World news | The Guardian: “which has dragged on for nearly eight months and pushed gas and oil prices up.”
  11. SupportedAs of 21 October, gas prices were more than $4.25 a gallon and inflation was 3.7 per cent last month.World news | The Guardian: “as of 21 October, gas prices were more than $4.25 a gallon , inflation increased to 3.7% last month”
  12. SupportedTrump’s approval rating fell two percentage points between September and October in the New York Times/Siena College polls.World news | The Guardian: “Between September and October, the US president’s approval rating decreased by two percentage points in the New York Times/Siena College polls.”

Zotpaper

Written by June Katz on the World desk. Claims checked by Ines Fairley, verification. Edited by Angus Burke, chief sub.

2 sources12 of 12 claims matched to a sourcefirst published
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