Trump to decide on Australian lamb tariffs after trade panel deadlocks

The USITC has been investigating the issue since July at the request of US trade ambassador Jamieson Greer, a key architect of Trump's tariff policy. Australian lamb exports are already subject to a 12.5 per cent tariff, and Australia has argued that the existing tariff goes against the two countries' free trade agreement. It has also warned that any new tariff would push up prices for US consumers.

Georgetown University's Jennifer Hillman, a former USITC commissioner, said a tie vote meant the president could choose which vote he considered the winner. "[I] would presume, particularly in light of the plight of farmers in the US generally, that he would be inclined to treat this as an affirmative determination and impose tariffs or tariff rate quotas," she told the ABC.

Alan Wolff, a former deputy director-general at the World Trade Organization, said tariff decisions were always partly political. "In this administration, that's no different, except we know the president does, in fact, like tariffs. He doesn't shrink from tariffs on imports from allies, so it's a pretty open question as to what will happen."

The next step is a public "remedies hearing" on December 1, where possible tariffs or other measures will be debated. Commissioners will then produce a report for Trump by January 11.

Australia's ambassador in Washington, Greg Moriarty, told a recent USITC hearing that Australian lamb was important for keeping US prices low. "Any action to restrict lamb meat imports would only increase costs for US con­sumers, reduce product avail­ab­il­ity and risk revers­ing the steady growth in US demand for lamb to the det­ri­ment of the US industry," he said.

The American Sheep Industry Association described the tie vote as "an important step toward securing trade relief for US sheep producers". The investigation followed years of campaigning by the sector, which argued "surging low-priced imports" from Australia and New Zealand were hurting the domestic industry. Dozens of Republicans in the US Congress backed the campaign, arguing in a January letter that foreign producers "have consistently taken advantage of our relaxed barriers and used them to undercut and infiltrate the US lamb market".

Trump has not publicly commented on the issue, but he recently angered US cattle farmers by supporting an increase in beef imports to push down prices, a possible sign he could be swayed by affordability arguments against lamb tariffs.