Americans head to the polls in the 2026 midterm elections today, with former White House staffer Cory Alpert arguing that many of President Donald Trump's supporters are struggling with the economic costs of his policies. Writing in an opinion piece for The Age and Brisbane Times, Alpert says the political map is shifting, with Democratic challengers finding opportunities in states Trump won easily in 2024.
Alpert notes that Trump has held 28 rallies in the past month, with only one in a state he lost last election. He writes that states like South Carolina, his home state, are now open ground after going for Trump by double digits.
The piece frames the midterms as a verdict on two years of the president's second term. Alpert acknowledges Trump has delivered on many of his policies, targeting immigrants, imposing tariffs and largely dismantling institutions, but argues that his policies have raised costs for voters who backed him and have not done much to improve their lives.
Alpert highlights a Kansas family paying $US737,375 more this year to stay afloat, mostly as a result of rising fuel costs, while its revenue is down $US325,000 mostly because international markets are drying up under Trump's tariffs. The family has had to sell land that had been in its family for 140 years. The farm's owner, Larry Preisser, is voting for a Democrat for the first time.
According to Alpert, the percentage of Republicans who blame Trump for their economic pain has doubled this year, reaching 35 per cent in October, according to Pew Research Centre.
Alpert writes that, in communities that rely on agriculture, workers are staying home out of fear of immigration raids. Farm processing slows and shipments get delayed, while entire regions are losing tax revenue and cash flow, hurting schools and other businesses.
He identifies three early bellwethers for the night: South Carolina's First Congressional District and Virginia's First and Second Districts, all of which Trump won in 2024.
Alpert is a PhD researcher at the University of Melbourne and served in the Biden-Harris administration.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- The outcome of the midterms will determine whether Trump's political project retains momentum or faces a serious rebuke from the electorate
- The economic pain of Trump's tariffs and immigration policies is being felt disproportionately by his core supporters, raising questions about the durability of his coalition
- International markets and allies are watching closely: a shift in US domestic politics could signal changes to trade and foreign policy posture
Background
The 2026 US midterm elections mark the first nationwide test of President Donald Trump since he returned to office in 2024. His second-term agenda has focused on sweeping tariffs, an immigration crackdown, and cuts to federal institutions. Cory Alpert, a former staffer in the Biden-Harris administration, argues in an opinion piece that the economic consequences of those policies are now falling heavily on the rural and agricultural voters who helped secure Trump's 2024 victory.
What to Watch
- Early results in South Carolina's First District and Virginia's First and Second Districts, which Alpert calls bellwethers for how far the political needle has moved
- The extent of defections among rural and agricultural voters, particularly in states like Iowa, Kansas and Ohio
- The post-election response from Republicans: whether the party unites behind Trump or begins to distance itself from his policy approach
Checked
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 11 supported.
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- SupportedTrump’s policies are hurting his base voters economically, as former White House staffer Cory Alpert argues.The Age - Latest News: “Two years down the line, Trump’s policies have raised the cost of living for those voters who put him in office.”
- SupportedAlpert says Kansas farmer Larry Preisser is voting for a Democrat for the first time.The Age - Latest News: “Larry Preisser, the owner of that farm, is voting for a Democrat for the first time in his life.”
- SupportedAmericans are heading to the polls for the 2026 midterm elections today.The Age - Latest News: “Since the beginning of the US midterm campaigns, which face the final judgment of voters today”
- SupportedMany Trump supporters are struggling with the economic costs of his policies.The Age - Latest News: “Many Trump supporters are struggling with the effects of his immigration policy and the rising cost of fuel and other necessities as a result of the war in Iran.”
- SupportedThe political map is shifting, creating opportunities for Democratic challengers in states Trump won easily in 2024.The Age - Latest News: “This is especially true in the rural and agricultural states that Trump won easily in 2024 and where Democratic challengers now find life: places like Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and even Alaska.”
- Partly supportedAlpert frames the midterms as a verdict on two years of Trump’s second term.The Age - Latest News: “Since the beginning of the US midterm campaigns, which face the final judgment of voters today”
- SupportedA Kansas family is paying $US737,375 more this year to stay afloat, mostly because of rising fuel costs.The Age - Latest News: “One Kansas family told CBS News on the weekend that they’re paying $US737,375 ($1,053,905) more to stay afloat this year, mostly as a result of rising fuel costs”
- SupportedThe Kansas family’s revenue is down $US325,000, mostly because international markets are drying up under Trump’s tariffs.The Age - Latest News: “while their revenue is down $US325,000 mostly because international markets are drying up under Trump’s tariffs.”
- SupportedThe family had to sell land that had been in its family for 140 years.The Age - Latest News: “They’ve had to sell land that’s been in their family for 140 years to keep their farm from going under.”
- SupportedIn agriculture-dependent communities, workers stay home for fear of immigration raids, slowing farm processing and delaying shipments.The Age - Latest News: “In communities that rely on agriculture, workers are staying home out of fear of immigration raids. Farm processing slows and shipments get delayed.”
- SupportedThe share of Republicans who say Trump is responsible for their economic pain doubled to 35 per cent in October, according to Pew Research Centre.The Age - Latest News: “The percentage of Republicans who say that Trump is responsible for their economic pain has doubled this year, up to 35 per cent in October, according to Pew Research Centre.”
- SupportedAlpert identifies South Carolina’s First Congressional District and Virginia’s First and Second Districts as early bellwethers; Trump won all three in 2024.The Age - Latest News: “In South Carolina’s First Congressional District, and Virginia’s First and Second, polls close at 7pm local time (11am AEDT). The results of these three districts, which Trump won in 2024, will show how far the needle has moved this year.”