Americans are heading to the polls in midterm elections that will determine control of Congress and could determine how much power Donald Trump wields in the second half of his term. Though the president is not on the ballot, the results will largely be seen as a referendum on his presidency and a test of his political influence.
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 Senate seats are up for election. Republicans currently hold slim majorities in both chambers. The typical pattern in midterms is for the incumbent party to lose ground.
Democrats need a net gain of three House seats to take control of that chamber and a net gain of four Senate seats to capture the upper house. The Senate is the steeper challenge: in a 50-50 split, Vice President JD Vance can cast a tiebreaking vote. Analysts and prediction markets currently tip Democrats to win the House, a result that would make it much harder for Trump to advance his agenda and bring more aggressive oversight, including investigations, subpoenas and congressional hearings. The president could also face another effort to impeach him if Democrats gain ground in the midterms.
Trump is set to dominate the contest despite low approval ratings in national polls, issuing endorsements across the country and headlining a Republican midterm convention. He and his advisers have suggested he is the only person who can mobilise the MAGA faithful and help Republicans avoid steep losses. For Democrats, Trump offers an obvious campaign target as they frame the vote as a chance to check his power.
The political landscape has shifted since the last election. Redistricting in ten states has led the Cook Political Report to estimate that Republicans gained a net five additional seats, potentially giving them an advantage before votes are cast. Voting rules have become a major flashpoint, particularly over voter eligibility and access to mail-in ballots.
The results will offer an early sign of voter sentiment ahead of the 2028 presidential election. Governor races in 36 states will also be closely watched for potential presidential contenders, as strong performances could raise their public profiles in either party.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- The outcome decides how much power Donald Trump can wield in the second half of his term and whether his agenda can advance or will face a legislative blockade.
- A Democratic-controlled House would bring aggressive oversight of the administration, including investigations and a possible impeachment attempt.
- The results offer an early gauge of voter sentiment and the issues that could drive the 2028 presidential campaign.
Background
Midterm elections are held at the midpoint of a president's term. The party in the White House historically loses congressional seats. The 2026 contests follow a period of intense partisan redistricting battles and court rulings that advocates say have weakened the Voting Rights Act, adding to the high stakes.
Key Perspectives
Donald Trump and the Republicans: Trump has positioned himself as the party's central asset, arguing he is the only person who can mobilise the MAGA faithful and prevent a Democratic wave. He has urged voters to treat the election as a choice about his administration's future.
Democrats: The party is running on a platform of checking Trump's power, hoping voters will treat the midterms as a referendum on the president and a chance to push back on his agenda.
What to Watch
- The final results in the roughly 40 competitive House races that will determine which party controls the chamber.
- Whether Democrats can overcome the uphill battle in the Senate, where the map heavily favours Republicans.
- The performance of progressive candidates such as Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, whose race is being watched as a test of whether the insurgent left can win in a purple state.
Checked
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 11 supported.
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- SupportedControl of Congress is at stake in the midterm elections.Just In: “The results will determine who controls Congress, which passes federal laws that impact the lives of hundreds of millions of Americans.”
- SupportedDemocrats are seeking to take back power from the Republican majorities.Just In: “For Democrats these elections therefore offer a chance to take back congressional power.”
- SupportedThe results will largely be seen as a referendum on Trump’s presidency.Just In: “The results will largely be seen as a referendum on Donald Trump's presidency”
- SupportedThe results could determine how much power Trump has in the second half of his term.Just In: “could determine how much power he wields in the second half of his term.”
- SupportedAll 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are up for election.Just In: “All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the Senate's seats are up for election.”
- SupportedRepublicans currently hold slim majorities in both chambers.Just In: “The Republican Party, also known as the Grand Old Party or GOP, currently holds a slim majority in both the House and the Senate”
- SupportedDemocrats need a net gain of three House seats and four Senate seats to take control.Just In: “Democrats need a net gain of three seats to take the House”
- SupportedIn a 50-50 Senate, Vice President JD Vance can cast the tiebreaking vote.Just In: “in a 50-50 Senate the vice president, currently Republican JD Vance, can cast a tiebreaker vote.”
- SupportedAnalysts and prediction markets currently tip Democrats to win the House; a Democratic House would bring tougher oversight and make it harder for Trump to advance his agenda.Just In: “Analysts and prediction markets currently tip the Democrats to win the House. If Democrats win the House they will make it much harder for Trump to advance his agenda. A Democratic-controlled House would also bring more aggressive oversight”
- Partly supportedTrump headlined a Republican midterm convention as part of his role in the contest.Just In: “In early September, Trump headlined a first of its kind Republican midterm convention”
- SupportedRedistricting in ten states led the Cook Political Report to estimate Republicans gained a net five seats.Just In: “The Cook Political Report estimates Republicans have gained a net five additional seats from the redistricting battles”
- SupportedGovernor races in 36 states will be watched for potential presidential contenders, whose strong performances could raise their profiles.Just In: “Governor races will be also be closely watched for potential presidential contenders, as a strong performance in the midterms would raise their public profile in either party.”