President Donald Trump and his allies have poured significant resources into the campaign of Jay Feely, a personal friend and golf partner of two decades. GOP groups have spent more than $22 million on the race, with much of the spending concentrated in the final weeks. The effort marks a distinct departure from the Trump team's generally transactional approach to political spending.
Feely is navigating a delicate path. Democratic opponent Amish Shah has worked to tie him to Trump in a district where the president's approval rating sits at roughly negative 13 points, according to Democratic internal polling. Feely has publicly pledged independence, posting on social media this week: "I will stand up to anyone including the president if it is not in the best interest of this district and this state." Along with fellow Arizona Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani, Feely did not attend a Trump rally in the state on October 14. His consultant, Brian Seitchik, said Feely "regrettably could not attend."
The personal nature of the support is unusual. Trump initially backed Feely and a primary opponent, former state party chair Gina Swoboda, but soon moved to clear a path for his friend. Feely originally ran for a safer seat but switched to the 1st District after the incumbent announced he would run for governor, a move encouraged by Trump. "I know Jay well, and he is a TOTAL WINNER, on and off the field!" Trump wrote.
Feely has acknowledged the high stakes of the race. He told Politico in September he expects the contest to be "probably the most expensive race in the country" and one of three to five that will determine the House majority. Trump-aligned super PACs have dropped over $9 million on his behalf, while the Congressional Leadership Fund has spent nearly $7 million and the National Republican Congressional Committee has spent $2.6 million.
Feely also attended a summer meeting with Speaker Mike Johnson and tech billionaire Elon Musk, who has since donated $20 million to the top House GOP super PAC. Internal polling reportedly shows a toss-up. Feely noted the importance of winning independent voters in a district where the economy and the war in Iran are major issues. "In a race that's going to come down to potentially hundreds of votes, Jay is doing the hard work required to win this battleground seat," Seitchik said.