Trump Shadow Looms Over BRICS Summit in Delhi as Internal Divisions Emerge

Leaders from 11 BRICS nations – including host India, China, Russia, Brazil, South Africa, the UAE and Iran, with Saudi Arabia attending as an invited member – are meeting in Delhi for talks spanning a wide range of issues. The shadow of President Donald Trump's trade policies and the ongoing conflict involving Iran looms large over proceedings, having destabilised global energy markets and left the world economy uncertain.

However, the group is unlikely to produce a consensus statement that openly calls out the US or lays out a coordinated strategy to counter Trump's policies. This stems from sharply divergent interests within the expanded bloc, analysts say.

"India cannot afford to have a joint statement that rails against Washington," Michael Kugelman, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, told the BBC. He expects any criticism of US policies to be "vague and indirect".

While Russia and Iran may push for a clearer stand against President Trump, geopolitical realities make that difficult. India, reportedly in the final stages of a trade deal with the US, will not want to upset the White House. China, too, may be wary of being seen as using BRICS to target Washington. Meanwhile, the UAE – which has come under Iranian attack during Tehran's retaliation against US and Israeli strikes – faces its own complex pressures as a Gulf state that hosts US military personnel.

Why This Matters

The summit outcome will signal whether BRICS can act as a counterweight to US influence or remains constrained by its members' competing alliances.
Unstable energy markets and tariff threats directly affect global trade and consumer prices, making the bloc's stance crucial for economic stability.
The war in Iran and India's prospective US trade deal illustrate how bilateral pressures shape multilateral diplomacy.

Background

BRICS originally comprised Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa as major emerging economies. In recent years, the group expanded to include nations such as Iran, the UAE, and Egypt, broadening its geopolitical weight but also introducing new fault lines. This weekend's summit in Delhi is the first major gathering since the expansion and comes amid heightened US tariffs and Middle Eastern conflict.

Key Perspectives

India: Wary of jeopardising a near-final trade deal with the US, New Delhi will avoid language that directly antagonises Washington. Its role as host gives it outsized influence over the final communiqué. Russia and Iran: Both nations face direct US pressure – Russia through sanctions over Ukraine, Iran through military strikes – and are likely to push BRICS for a strong anti-American posture. UAE: A Gulf state that hosts US forces and has suffered Iranian retaliation, the UAE seeks to balance its BRICS membership with its security dependence on Washington.

What to Watch

The wording of the summit's final communiqué – look for any specific references to US tariffs or the Iran war.
Progress on the India-US trade deal, which could further moderate India's stance before the summit concludes.
Energy market reactions; a vague or divided statement may do little to calm oil price volatility.

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