UN warns El Niño could be ‘off the charts’, strongest in decades

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that the current El Niño could become the strongest since records began four decades ago, with UN chief Antonio Guterres stating the planet is in the 'danger zone of extreme weather'.

El Niño, a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, is expected to intensify into a 'very strong' event in the coming months, according to the WMO. The agency said Thursday that forecasts show a 100% likelihood that El Niño will continue through February.

WMO chief Celeste Saulo told reporters in Geneva that if the current trajectory continues, the event 'may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began — so literally off the charts we have used for the past four decades.' She noted that El Niño will peak towards the end of this year, but its knock-on impacts for the climate will continue well into 2027.

Saulo put disaster management authorities and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water on notice, saying there was 'no time to lose' in getting ready. 'This exceptional El Niño … has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world,' she said.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres echoed the warning, saying: 'El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up.'

While El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon and not caused by climate change, scientists expect it will exacerbate the heat of a planet already warming from burning fossil fuels, amplifying weather extremes. The powerful 2023-24 El Niño contributed to 2024 being the warmest year on record, and Saulo added that 'we should not be surprised if this record is broken.'

Why This Matters

The current El Niño could surpass all previous events in recorded history, potentially causing more severe droughts, floods, and extreme heat across the globe.
The phenomenon is expected to persist through February 2027, meaning its effects will be felt over multiple seasons, straining agriculture, water resources, and disaster response systems.
The event comes on top of ongoing climate change, raising the risk of breaking the record for the warmest year on record, with consequences for ecosystems and human communities.

Background

El Niño is a natural climate pattern that occurs every two to seven years, typically lasting nine to 12 months. It involves warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, which alters global weather patterns. The previous strong El Niño in 2023-24 contributed to record global temperatures, with 2024 becoming the warmest year on record. The WMO has been monitoring El Niño for approximately four decades using modern instruments.

Key Perspectives

WMO and UN officials: Emphasize the severity of the event and the need for urgent preparedness. Celeste Saulo warns of a 'massive blow' to economies and calls for immediate action in climate-sensitive sectors. Climate scientists: While El Niño is natural, they note it will amplify the effects of human-caused climate change, potentially leading to unprecedented compound extremes. Critics/Skeptics: Some may question the certainty of forecasts or point to historical variability, but the WMO's 100% likelihood of persistence through February indicates strong scientific consensus.

What to Watch

Sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific over the coming months, which will indicate whether the event reaches 'off the charts' intensity.
Impacts on global food production, particularly in regions prone to drought (e.g., Australia, Southeast Asia, Africa) or flooding (e.g., parts of South America).
Whether 2026 or 2027 sets a new global temperature record, as the lagged effects of El Niño push temperatures higher.

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