The US Defence Intelligence Agency has warned that China could deploy laser and other directed-energy weapons in orbit by the end of the 2020s, marking the first official US government timeline for such a capability, but Victoria Samson and the Global Times have pushed back against the assessment.
The DIA report, entitled Challenges to Security in Space, was published on Sunday and includes an image of China's reusable spaceplane. It states that Beijing already operates ground-based energy weapons capable of disrupting satellites and that space-based versions would add a more dangerous capability.
Victoria Samson, chief director of space security and stability at the Secure World Foundation, told the South China Morning Post she would be “very surprised if China fielded space-based laser weapons by the late 2020s”.
China's state-run Global Times dismissed the warning as hype, accusing Washington of accelerating its own military buildup in orbit while sounding alarms about others.
Brendan Mulvaney, director of the China Aerospace Studies Institute, said the US is far more dependent on space than the People's Liberation Army; the South China Morning Post reported that disrupting those satellites could disproportionately affect American forces, potentially weakening their ability to intervene in a regional conflict, such as one over Taiwan.
The Pentagon earlier this month unveiled four directed-energy systems for a counter-drone pilot, including lasers and high-powered microwaves. US Space Force Gen. Stephen Whiting said survivability matters at least as much as performance, noting that “in space, there is no safe harbor. You can't dig a trench or build a shield.”
The DIA says the ground-based weapons can also degrade or damage satellites and will be stronger by the end of the 2020s, with the ability to impact satellites beyond low Earth orbit.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- Space-based directed-energy weapons would represent a major escalation in military space capabilities, threatening satellites critical for communications, navigation, and intelligence.
- The US, being more dependent on space than China, could be disproportionately affected in a conflict.
- The timeline puts pressure on US space defence investments and any potential arms control efforts.
Background
The DIA's report is the first official US government estimate for when China could field space-based directed-energy weapons. China already has ground-based lasers that can disrupt satellites. The US has been preparing for such threats, with the Pentagon unveiling its own directed-energy systems and the Space Force emphasising survivability.
Key Perspectives
- US Defence Intelligence Agency: Says China could have directed-energy weapons in orbit by the late 2020s, adding a dangerous new disruptive capability.
- Victoria Samson (Secure World Foundation): Says she would be “very surprised” if China fielded such weapons by then.
- China's Global Times: Accuses the US of hyping threats to justify its own military buildup in orbit.
- Brendan Mulvaney (China Aerospace Studies Institute): Notes the US is far more dependent on space than the PLA, so satellite disruption would hurt American forces more.
- Gen. Stephen Whiting (US Space Force): Says survivability matters as much as performance; there is no safe harbour in space.
What to Watch
- Whether China offers its own official timeline or denies the capability.
- Further US investment in directed-energy and space survivability systems.
- Upcoming US-China talks on space arms control, if any.
Checked
11 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 11 supported.
Show each claim
- SupportedChina could have laser and other directed-energy weapons operating in orbit by the end of the 2020s.Oilprice.com: “The Defense Intelligence Agency says China could have laser and other directed-energy weapons operating in orbit by the end of the 2020s”
- SupportedThis is the first official US government timeline for the capability.Oilprice.com: “the first US government timeline for that capability.”
- SupportedVictoria Samson said she would be “very surprised if China fielded space-based laser weapons by the late 2020s”.Oilprice.com: ““I would be very surprised if China fielded space-based laser weapons by the late 2020s,” she said.”
- SupportedThe Global Times dismissed the warning as hype and accused Washington of building up its own military presence in orbit while sounding alarms about others.Oilprice.com: “China’s Global Times dismisses the warning as hype.”
- SupportedThe DIA report, Challenges to Security in Space, was published on Sunday.Oilprice.com: “The US Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) report, entitled Challenges to Security in Space , is the first time”
- SupportedThe DIA report includes an image of China's reusable spaceplane.Oilprice.com: “The DIA report, published on Sunday, includes a rare image of the newly developed reusable spaceplane.”
- SupportedThe DIA says Beijing already has ground-based energy weapons capable of disrupting satellites, and that they will be stronger by the end of the 2020s and able to affect satellites beyond low Earth orbit.Oilprice.com: “Beijing already has established earthbound energy weapons, which are capable of disrupting, degrading, and/or damaging satellites, and will also be stronger by the end of the 2020s, with the ability to impact satellites beyond low Earth orbit.”
- SupportedBrendan Mulvaney said the US is more dependent on space than the PLA, and the South China Morning Post reported that disrupting US satellites could disproportionately affect American forces and weaken their ability to intervene in a regional conflict such as one over Taiwan.Oilprice.com: ““The US will be far more dependent on space than the PLA” in a potential future conflict, according to Brendan Mulvaney, director of the China Aerospace Studies Institute. Based on the interview with Mulvaney, the South China Morning Post reports that, “Disrupting those satellites could therefore disproportionately affect US forces, potentially weakening their ability to intervene in a regional conflict, such as one over Taiwan.””
- SupportedThe Pentagon unveiled four directed-energy systems for a homeland counter-drone pilot earlier this month, including lasers and high-powered microwaves.Oilprice.com: “At the beginning of this month, the Pentagon unveiled four of its own directed-energy weapons for deployment in a homeland counter-drone pilot.”
- SupportedGen. Stephen Whiting said, “in space, there is no safe harbor. You can't dig a trench or build a shield.”Oilprice.com: ““In space, there is no safe harbor. You can’t dig a trench or build a shield,” Whiting continued.”
- SupportedThe DIA says space-based energy weapons would add a more dangerous disruptive capability.Oilprice.com: “These new space-based energy weapons would add an even more dangerous new disruptive capability to that arsenal.”