Americans go to the polls on Tuesday in midterm elections framed as a referendum on President Donald Trump’s presidency, with polls putting Democrats eight points ahead in generic ballot polling and assuming Republicans will lose the House of Representatives while not ruling out a loss of Republican control of the Senate.
Donald Trump is due to have held 28 rallies during the midterm campaign, a record-setting blitz dubbed “Midterm Blitz” that included canceled and rescheduled events. At every stop, he asked his supporters to “pretend, please, that I’m on the ballot.”
Early voting figures of just over 51 million citizens as of Saturday forecast high turnout. The numbers carry two possible interpretations: many voters prefer to guarantee their voice is heard before Election Day, which arrives amid the administration’s attacks on the democratic process, or Democratic voters, who have traditionally favored early participation, may bolster the party’s hopes.
Trump’s approval rating stands at historic lows. A war with Iran has no apparent end, corruption has risen on voters’ list of concerns, and the administration’s immigration campaign and a battered economy weigh on Republican prospects. The president’s support among Republicans has fallen from 95% in February 2025 to 67% this month, according to the Pew Research Center.
The Republican establishment has been unable to prevent the selection of handpicked candidates who have complicated once-safe Senate seats in states such as Texas (Ken Paxton) and South Carolina (Darline Graham, sister of the late Lindsey Graham). Trump’s tour has visited nine states, all Republican, suggesting either that he was content to make sure already-converted voters did not forget to vote or that things had become so dire he feared defeat even in those territories.
Democrats will also draw conclusions in their own referendum on the party’s two souls. A faction has tried progressive politics in the mold of Bernie Sanders, exemplified by Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, who seeks to become the first Muslim senator in history. Others could be labeled “prairie populists” in hostile territories: Pastor Adam Hamilton in Kansas, Josh Turek in Iowa, and James Talarico in Texas, presenting themselves as conservative and God-fearing enough to win over Republicans fed up with Trump.
The elections will include votes for every House seat and 35 of the 100 Senate seats, along with thousands of local and state officials and hundreds of ballot questions, including California’s Proposition 40 on taxing billionaires and Montana’s Initiative 194 on dark money in elections.
Artificial intelligence has emerged as an issue uniting the political spectrum, with concern about the threats posed by AI and opposition to data centres being built or planned across the country. Trump has defended the data centres, dismissing opponents as enemies of progress. Elon Musk has spent at least $267 million to support Republicans in these midterms, according to The New York Times, while X’s algorithm continues to influence the mood of millions of voters whose news diets consist exclusively of videos a few seconds in length.
If the polls are correct and Democrats win majorities, Trump faces a hostile Congress ready to order investigations into decisions made during the first part of his second term. The president appears to be laying the groundwork to contest bad results with baseless lawsuits, threats of fines or prison for election officials, voter intimidation, and the possibility of an illegal deployment of troops at polling places.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- The outcome will determine whether Trump can sustain his grip on the Republican Party or becomes a lame duck for the remainder of his term.
- Control of Congress shifts the balance of power on investigations, legislation, and the direction of US policy on the economy, immigration, and foreign affairs.
- High turnout and early voting numbers signal intense public engagement, with implications for the integrity of the electoral process itself.
Background
US midterm elections are held every two years, with all 435 House seats and about one-third of Senate seats up for a vote. They are typically seen as a referendum on the sitting president. The 2026 midterms come after a turbulent first half of Trump’s second term, marked by a war with Iran, a polarising immigration crackdown, and a struggling economy. Trump’s approval ratings have fallen to historic lows, and the Republican coalition shows signs of fraying.
Key Perspectives
Trump and the Republican establishment: The president and his allies have pursued an all-or-nothing strategy of mobilising the base through rallies and personal attacks, while the party’s leadership has been unable to prevent the nomination of candidates who may have weakened Republican chances in key Senate races.
Democrats: They are running on a two-track approach, progressive candidates like Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan energising the left, and pragmatic “prairie populists” in rural states aiming to win over moderate Republicans and independents disillusioned with Trump.
Elon Musk and the tech industry: Musk has poured at least $267 million into Republican campaigns, while his platform X shapes the information environment. Data centres backed by Musk have become a flashpoint in local elections, with candidates like Justin Pearson in Memphis campaigning against them.
What to Watch
- Whether Democrats secure majorities in both the House and Senate, and by what margins.
- Any legal challenges or claims of fraud from Trump and his allies in the days after the vote.
- The performance of progressive and moderate Democratic candidates as a signal for the party’s future direction.
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12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 12 supported.
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- SupportedThe midterm elections will test the future of Trumpism.El País English: “The all-or-nothing move also highlights these elections as a referendum on the end of Trumpism”
- SupportedPolls suggest Democrats may win back the House.El País English: “the surveys assume they will lose the House of Representatives”
- SupportedPolls do not rule out Republicans losing control of the Senate.El País English: “while not ruling out the possibility that they could also cede control of the Senate”
- SupportedIt remains unclear whether Trump’s campaign blitz has reversed Republicans’ grim polling outlook.El País English: “It is still unclear whether the operation — a record-setting maneuver dubbed “Midterm Blitz” — will have achieved its aim: to reverse the grim outlook in the polls for Republicans.”
- SupportedAmericans vote in the midterm elections on Tuesday.El País English: “Donald Trump will have held 28 rallies during the midterm election campaign, which culminates with the November 3 vote across the United States.”
- SupportedRepublicans trailed Democrats by eight points in generic ballot polling.El País English: “On Saturday they trailed by eight points in generic ballot polling”
- SupportedThe elections are framed as a referendum on Trump’s presidency.El País English: “these elections as a referendum on the end of Trumpism”
- SupportedTrump was due to hold 28 rallies during a record-setting campaign blitz called “Midterm Blitz.”El País English: “Donald Trump will have held 28 rallies during the midterm election campaign”
- SupportedAt every stop, Trump asked supporters to “pretend, please, that I’m on the ballot.”El País English: “At each and every stop, the same request to his supporters: “Pretend, please, that I’m on the ballot.””
- SupportedJust over 51 million citizens had voted early as of Saturday, a figure that forecast high turnout.El País English: “Early voting figures (just over 51 million citizens as of this Saturday) forecast high turnout.”
- SupportedTrump’s approval rating was at historic lows.El País English: “a presidential approval rating at historic lows”
- SupportedTrump’s support among Republicans fell from 95% in February 2025 to 67% that month, according to Pew Research Center.El País English: “support among that group has fallen from 95% in February 2025 to 67% this month, according to the Pew Research Center”