A new Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll reveals a sharpening partisan divide over U.S. support for Israel, a split that could determine which party controls the Senate. The findings come as Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed face off in Michigan in a race already drawing millions in outside spending from groups like the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.
A new poll from the Deseret News and the Hinckley Institute of Politics finds that while a majority of American voters support maintaining or strengthening diplomatic ties with Israel, the consensus has fractured along party lines. Jason Perry, the institute's director, said the poll shows “some fatigue” with what has traditionally been a bipartisan issue. According to the poll, nearly 50 percent of voters back continued or increased military and financial support for Israel, but around one in five want such aid decreased and 16 percent want it ended entirely. Republicans were 34 percentage points more likely than Democrats to favor continued or elevated military support, while independents were as skeptical as Democrats.
The national survey highlights the stakes in Michigan's Senate race, where the two candidates have taken sharply different positions. El-Sayed has made criticism of Israel a central part of his campaign, saying the country is not a friend of the United States and appearing with an activist who has compared supporters of Israel to Nazis. Rogers has sought to tie El-Sayed to Muslim terrorist groups and told Jewish voters they are “literally afraid” of progressive candidates. AIPAC, a pro-Israel lobby, pledged $9 million to support Rogers, but soon after announced it would no longer make direct donations to candidates, a move reflecting the growing controversy over its advocacy. The group had spent $30 million trying to shape the Democratic primary, its largest ever for a single race.
The broader trend is clear: disfavor toward Israel has grown. Pew Research found that the share of adults with an unfavorable view of Israel rose from 42 percent in 2022 to 53 percent in 2025, driven largely by voters under 50. On Thursday, a Utah man was charged with threatening Jews and planning to attack synagogues. Concern about antisemitism is widespread, with more than 6 in 10 voters nationally and nearly 7 in 10 in Utah saying they are at least somewhat concerned. The poll attributes the largest share of blame to social media.
Experts describe the dynamic as unprecedented but not surprising. University of Utah law professor Amos Guiora said the war in Gaza has fueled an “obsession” with Israel among ideologues on both the left and right. Sociologist Steven Cohen noted that while research finds little overlap between anti-Jewish bigotry and intense criticism of Israel, many Jews experience both as threats and conflate them. Matt Weinstein of J Street, a liberal Zionist group, said the focus on Israel reflects a broader discontent about the role of money in politics, particularly the millions AIPAC injects into campaigns.
The poll of 2,050 registered voters was conducted Oct. 13-19.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- The Michigan Senate race is one of the most competitive in the country, and its outcome could determine party control of the Senate, affecting the legislative agenda and judicial confirmations.
- The growing partisan gap on Israel policy suggests that the long-standing bipartisan consensus on the U.S.-Israel relationship is fraying, which could shape future foreign aid decisions and presidential policy.
- Record levels of concern about antisemitism and debate over the role of money in politics indicate that the Israel issue is tapping into deeper anxieties about social cohesion and democratic integrity.
Background
The U.S.-Israel relationship has been a cornerstone of American foreign policy for decades, traditionally enjoying broad support from both parties. However, the war in Gaza that began after the Hamas attacks on Oct. 7, 2023, has shifted public opinion, especially among younger and more progressive voters. AIPAC has long been a powerful force in campaign finance, spending millions to support candidates friendly to Israel, but its tactics have become increasingly controversial. The upcoming midterm elections in 2026 could serve as a referendum on these changes.
Key Perspectives
Jason Perry (Hinckley Institute director): The poll shows “some fatigue” with the U.S.-Israel relationship but not a lack of support for a strategic ally; the economy remains the top issue for voters.
Abdul El-Sayed (Democratic candidate): Israel is not a friend of the United States; he campaigns with an activist who compared supporters of Israel to Nazis.
Mike Rogers (Republican candidate): Jewish voters are “literally afraid” of progressive candidates; he has attempted to link El-Sayed to Muslim terrorist groups.
American Israel Public Affairs Committee: Pledged $9 million to support Rogers but announced it would stop making direct donations to candidates.
Matt Weinstein (J Street Utah chair): The focus on Israel reflects a broader discontent about the role of money in politics, particularly AIPAC's campaign contributions.
Amos Guiora (University of Utah law professor): The war in Gaza has created an obsession with Israel among ideologues left and right, and Netanyahu's strategy makes Israel vulnerable to criticism.
Steven Cohen (sociologist of American Jewish community): Research shows little overlap between anti-Jewish bigotry and intense criticism of Israel, but Jews experience both as threats and conflate them.
What to Watch
- The final election results in Michigan and whether Israel policy proves decisive for swing voters.
- Further developments in AIPAC's campaign finance strategy after its announcement to stop direct donations.
- Trends in Pew and other polling on younger voters' attitudes toward Israel and antisemitism leading into 2026.