Nathan Heuston, who opened his Hunter Valley winery about five years ago, said business had plummeted. 'We were averaging, especially on our busy days, up to 220 people,' he said. 'This year we've even had days where we've had no-one.' His winery’s weekly revenue fell from about $20,000 to $2,000. 'We were taking a tenth of what we require to pay our bills. How do you recover from that?' he said.
The pain is widespread. The Independent Brewers Association confirmed more than 80 breweries have shut since June 2023. Seven hotel bars in Hobart entered voluntary administration earlier this year. Liquor sales at Coles dropped 3.3% last financial year, while Endeavour Group, owner of BWS and Dan Murphy's, saw retail sales rise only 0.7%.
Fitch Solutions data shows global wine volumes have declined in seven of the eight years to 2025, falling to 23.14 billion litres. In Australia, total alcohol consumption fell about 10% in the three years to 2024, with IBISWorld senior analyst Michael Doyle calling the 2024 financial year drop 'the sharpest we've seen on record.' The reduction is driven by younger Australians drinking less, tighter budgets, and the rise of non-alcoholic alternatives.
Non-alcoholic beer sales are projected to almost double from 150 million litres in 2024 to around 300 million by 2028, making it the fastest-growing beverage across the alcohol sector. Andy Miller, co-founder and chief executive of non-alcoholic brewer Heaps Normal, said sales were growing about 20% each year. 'What we're seeing in some of the more progressive venues around the country is that the non-alcoholic Heaps Normal draft is outselling other alcoholic counterparts,' he said.
Australian Grape and Wine chief executive Lee McLean described the period as 'the most difficult set of circumstances' the industry has faced in 'generations.' He said the industry would be 'a different shape and size' in coming years, with some businesses needing help to transition out or diversify. 'The message that we've been giving to government over the last little while is that grape growers and wine makers in many of these regions that are suffering need a hand to make a transition,' he said.
Alcohol Beverages Australia executive director Alistair Coe said the industry was innovating with greater product diversity and growth of low- and no-alcohol products. Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry Julie Collins acknowledged the challenges and said the government had delivered over $105 million in funding, including the Wine Equalisation Tax rebate and a new mandatory code of conduct for wine-grape purchases. 'Our government will continue to work closely with industry on future opportunities,' she said.
Michael Doyle expects more pain ahead: 'People just don't have the money to spend on alcohol like they may have used to. I would expect to see a continual slow decline in per capita consumption.'