Police and experts say younger children are being drawn into violent crime, although youth crime rates across NSW are mostly stable or trending down. Recent alleged incidents include a hammer attack on a 55-year-old salon worker in Tregear involving figures aged 11 and 12, and a bottle-shop raid in Narellan Vale involving boys aged 12 to 15.
The Australian Federal Police warned a federal parliamentary committee last month that “Australia is at the crossroads of a tsunami of youth crime”, as online platforms and tools become more secret, sophisticated and popular.
Detective Acting Superintendent Jason Smith, acting head of Taskforce Falcon, the NSW Police squad charged with combating gang warfare and organised crime, said saturation of the market with young people willing to take on crime roles had driven down the amount paid. Of the 530 people arrested by the taskforce so far this year, almost 50 have been children, the youngest aged 14. “We've got young people essentially throwing their life away for $500,” he said.
However, data from the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research (BOCSAR) paints a more nuanced picture. Executive director Jackie Fitzgerald said young people today are much less likely to commit crimes overall, and it is not accurate to speak of a youth crime wave. The article reports an apparent uptick in violent crimes, including murder and assault, which appeared to begin just before the pandemic, after a decade of relatively few violent crimes by young people. “The trend is steady, and if there is a tsunami of youth crime it hasn't shown up in the numbers yet,” said Associate Professor Alex Simpson of Macquarie University.
Associate Professor Garner Clancey of the University of Sydney described a post-COVID landscape affected by the “manosphere” and “crimfluencers”. He said grooming can take weeks or months, sometimes quicker, and that “posting and boasting” about minor crimes can act as a calling card for adult criminals to recruit young people.
A caseworker who works with young people involved in gangland crimes in Sydney said family connections are probably the strongest indicator of involvement. The caseworker said apps are a tool, but behaviours can be seeded by social life, family life and background.
A BOCSAR report found that school attendance became by far the strongest predictor of involvement in crime as children grew into teenagers. By age 15, the model was essentially making predictions using school suspension data. The majority of children who participated in Youth Justice NSW’s survey of young people in custody had one or both parents incarcerated.
New bail laws that came into force in April last year have had a big impact on the number of young people in detention, with a 34 per cent jump; most are on remand. Mindy Sotiri of the Justice Reform Initiative said there is strong evidence that detention does not reduce crime. She cited reforms in Scotland that shifted the focus from punishment to child welfare; the child prison population is now zero and youth crime rates appear to be falling, though it is too early to assess the long-term effects.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- The trend reveals how vulnerable children are being exploited by global organised crime networks through encrypted apps, with long-term consequences for community safety.
- The shift towards violent crime by younger perpetrators challenges the effectiveness of current justice and prevention strategies.
- The policy response, including tough bail laws and increased detention, is under scrutiny over whether it addresses the root causes of the problem.
Background
The report from The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald examines a pattern of youth crime in NSW where offenders are getting younger and the alleged crimes more violent. Experts are divided on whether this represents a new trend or a temporary spike against a backdrop of historically falling youth crime rates.
Key Perspectives
- Detective Acting Superintendent Jason Smith (Taskforce Falcon): Says young people are being recruited as cheap, expendable labour by offshore crime figures, with some throwing their lives away for as little as $500.
- Jackie Fitzgerald (BOCSAR): Counsels against describing the situation as a youth crime wave, noting that overall rates are stable or falling, though specific violent offences have increased.
- Associate Professor Garner Clancey (University of Sydney): Attributes the change to a post-COVID landscape dominated by the "manosphere" and "crimfluencers" who quickly groom young people online.
- Mindy Sotiri (Justice Reform Initiative): Argues that increasing youth detention does not reduce crime and advocates for welfare-focused reforms.
- Anonymous Youth Caseworker: Highlights that family connections remain the strongest predictor of youth involvement in gang crime.
What to Watch
- Whether the recent spike in murder and assault charges for young people continues or recedes, which criminologists are uncertain about.
- The long-term impact of the new NSW bail laws on recidivism and the youth detention population.
- Data from overseas reforms, such as those in Scotland, which are being watched closely by Australian reform advocates as potential models.
Checked
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 10 supported.
Show each claim
- SupportedExperts warn that youth offenders are getting younger.Sydney Morning Herald - Latest News: “The two incidents are tiny pieces in a mosaic of youth crime that police and experts say is seeing younger and younger children sucked from the fringes of the criminal world into violent criminal acts.”
- SupportedExperts warn that youth crimes are becoming more violent.Sydney Morning Herald - Latest News: “The two incidents are tiny pieces in a mosaic of youth crime that police and experts say is seeing younger and younger children sucked from the fringes of the criminal world into violent criminal acts.”
- SupportedYouth crime rates across NSW are mostly stable or falling, except for murder and some forms of assault.Sydney Morning Herald - Latest News: “Youth crime rates across the state are mostly either stable or trending down – with the exception of murder and some forms of assault.”
- SupportedAn alleged hammer attack in Tregear involved a 55-year-old salon worker and figures aged 11 and 12.Sydney Morning Herald - Latest News: “Closed-circuit television shows one of the figures lunging with the hammer at the salon’s sole worker, a terrified 55-year-old woman who asked not to be named. The most disturbing aspect of the alleged crime was that the would-be attackers were aged just 11 and 12.”
- SupportedFive boys aged 12 to 15 were charged over an alleged bottle-shop raid in Narellan Vale.Sydney Morning Herald - Latest News: “Across the city in Narellan Vale earlier that month, a group of teens and pre-teens allegedly swarmed a bottle shop, fighting staff and stealing cases of drinks. Five boys, aged between 12 and 15, were charged.”
- SupportedThe AFP warned a federal parliamentary committee last month that “Australia is at the crossroads of a tsunami of youth crime”.Sydney Morning Herald - Latest News: “The Australian Federal Police warned a federal parliamentary committee last month that “Australia is at the crossroads of a tsunami of youth crime””
- SupportedTaskforce Falcon had arrested 530 people so far that year, almost 50 of them children, with the youngest aged 14.Sydney Morning Herald - Latest News: “Of the 530 people arrested by Taskforce Falcon so far this year, almost 50 have been children, the youngest being 14.”
- SupportedSmith said, “We've got young people essentially throwing their life away for $500”.Sydney Morning Herald - Latest News: ““We’ve got young people essentially throwing their life away for $500.”
- SupportedFitzgerald said young people today are much less likely to commit crimes overall and that it is inaccurate to describe the situation as a youth crime wave.Sydney Morning Herald - Latest News: ““Young people today are much less likely to commit crimes,” Jackie Fitzgerald, executive director of BOCSAR, says. It’s not accurate to speak in terms of a youth crime wave”
- SupportedThe apparent uptick in violent crimes, including murder and assault, appeared to begin just before the pandemic, after a decade of relatively few such crimes by young people.Sydney Morning Herald - Latest News: “The apparent uptick in the number of violent crimes, including murder and assault, which appeared to begin just before the COVID-19 pandemic, follows a decade of relatively few violent crimes being committed by young people.”
- Partly supportedClancey said grooming can take weeks or months, and sometimes happens quicker.Sydney Morning Herald - Latest News: ““From what we know, it’s definitely not years, more likely weeks or months. Sometimes quicker if there’s a bit of cash.””
- Partly supportedClancey said “posting and boasting” about minor crimes can act as a calling card for adult criminals to recruit young people.Sydney Morning Herald - Latest News: “In subsets of online culture, “posting and boasting” about relatively minor crimes on social media can act as a “calling card” for adult criminals to recruit them, he says.”