Zelensky warns Russian airspace 'effectively closing' as drone strikes intensify

In his nightly video address on Tuesday, Zelensky said Ukraine does not threaten civilian aviation but that "there will simply be drones in Russia's skies on a scale that has to be taken into account." He directed the warning to airlines continuing to operate flights to Russian airports, especially in major cities like St Petersburg and Moscow.

Most Western commercial airlines already avoid Russian airspace as a consequence of Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine, but carriers from countries such as China continue to fly over Russia. Zelensky said the war started by Russia "is closing its skies."

Russian President Vladimir Putin responded by calling Zelensky's comments a "declaration of state terrorism" and said Russia would continue its own intensifying attacks on Ukraine.

Aviation risk advisory firm Osprey Flight Solutions said in an alert to clients that while the majority of Ukraine's drone and missile strikes are likely to occur within 300km (186 miles) of the border, daily attacks deeper inside Russia are almost certain to continue this year. The alert added there is "a realistic possibility that the frequency of Ukrainian strikes will continue to increase in the short term deep inside Russian territory," and that miscalculation or misidentification remains a risk.

Why This Matters

The world's largest country by land mass could see significant portions of its airspace become effectively off-limits, affecting global flight routes and airline operations.
The warning creates new risks for insurers and airlines still flying over Russia, potentially leading to higher premiums or service suspensions.
The escalation marks a strategic shift by Ukraine to target deep inside Russian territory with drones, raising the stakes in the conflict.

Background

Ukraine has been conducting drone strikes on Russian energy facilities and other targets deep inside Russian territory. The conflict, which began with Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, has seen both sides use drones and missiles to strike military and infrastructure targets. Most Western airlines stopped flying over Russia early in the war, but carriers from China, India, and some Middle Eastern countries continue to use Russian airspace.

Key Perspectives

Ukraine (President Zelensky): Airspace over Russia is becoming dangerously active due to Ukrainian drone operations, and airlines should heed the warning to avoid risks to civilian aircraft. Russia (President Putin): Zelensky's comments constitute a "declaration of state terrorism," and Russia will continue its own attacks on Ukraine. Aviation risk analysts (Osprey Flight Solutions): Strikes deep inside Russia are likely to continue and increase in frequency, with a risk of miscalculation affecting civilian aviation.

What to Watch

Which airlines, particularly those from non-Western countries, announce changes to their routes over Russia in response to the warning.
The frequency and location of Ukrainian drone strikes inside Russia in the coming weeks.
Any incident involving a civilian aircraft near Russian airspace that could trigger a broader escalation.

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