With less than a week until the US midterm elections, more than 43 million Americans have already cast their ballots, according to the University of Florida Election Lab. The early voting rate is much higher than in most previous elections, with Texas seeing the highest above-average turnout rate so far and Hispanic communities also voting at a much higher rate than usual. Overall turnout appears on track to outpace 2020 and possibly 2018.
Data from the University of Florida Election Lab indicates that four to five million votes are being cast each day, a rate far exceeding most prior elections. More than 5.8 million ballots have been cast in Texas, which has surpassed its 2022 numbers by about 1.75 million voters. The data also shows a surge in voting by some counties on the border with Mexico, which are comprised of more than 90% Hispanic people.
Analysis by the lab shows that among the roughly half of states that require party registration, Democrats account for 44% of early ballots, Republicans 31.2%, and unaffiliated voters 24.7%. In the three states that collect racial data, North Carolina, Georgia and Florida, voting is up among Hispanic and Black communities, while voting among white people is on par with 2022 early voting figures. “That makes sense because communities of colour are more frequently part of the Democratic coalition, and whites are more frequently part of the Republican coalition,” McDonald said. He noted that some border counties could “beat their 2022 turnout in just the early vote alone.”
Early voting has expanded significantly since the pandemic, when states introduced more mail and in-person options. In 2020, more than two-thirds of ballots were cast before Election Day. McDonald says voters are returning their ballots earlier than in the past. He believes this could be due to concerns about postal voting, but says there is no data to indicate what could be causing this.
Minneapolis announced an early voting record for a non-presidential election on Thursday. Early voting will begin to taper off in the coming days as states close their windows ahead of election day on 3 November.
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Early ballots by party affiliation (states that require registration)
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Data from about half of US states that require party registration Source: University of Florida Election Lab via BBC News
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Analysis
Why This Matters
The early voting numbers signal high voter engagement and could affect which party controls Congress.
High turnout among Hispanic and other minority groups may boost Democratic margins in key races.
Texas, historically Republican, is showing competitive early voting, potentially reshaping the Senate map.
Background
The midterm elections determine control of the House and Senate for the second half of Donald Trump's presidency. Early voting has grown steadily since the COVID-19 pandemic expanded mail and in-person advance options. In 2020, more than two-thirds of all ballots were cast before Election Day. This year, early turnout is on pace to exceed both 2020 midterms and possibly the record set in 1914.
What to Watch
Whether early voting records translate to overall turnout on election day.
Which party gains more from the early surge among Democrats and independents.
Potential disputes over mail ballot counting if late-arriving ballots are challenged.
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 11 supported.
Show each claim
SupportedMore than 43 million early ballots have been cast.BBC News: “More than 43 million ballots cast so far in midterms early voting surge.”
SupportedEarly voting is surging in the US midterms.BBC News: “Data from the University of Florida Election Lab indicates that four to five million early votes have been cast each day, a much higher rate than in most previous elections.”
SupportedTexas is a key battleground.BBC News: “More than 5.8 million ballots have been cast in the Lone Star state, which has emerged as a key battleground that could decide which party controls the Senate for the rest of Donald Trump's presidency.”
SupportedTexas early voting has surpassed its 2022 numbers.BBC News: “Texas has already surpassed its 2022 numbers by around 1.75 million voters, says McDonald.”
SupportedThe election is less than a week away.BBC News: “With less than a week to go until the US midterm elections”
SupportedFour to five million early votes are being cast each day, a much higher rate than in most previous elections.BBC News: “Data from the University of Florida Election Lab indicates that four to five million early votes have been cast each day, a much higher rate than in most previous elections.”
SupportedMore than 5.8 million ballots have been cast in Texas.BBC News: “More than 5.8 million ballots have been cast in the Lone Star state”
SupportedTexas is about 1.75 million voters above its 2022 numbers.BBC News: “Texas has already surpassed its 2022 numbers by around 1.75 million voters, says McDonald.”
Partly supportedThe lab’s analysis shows the party shares of early ballots among states that require party registration.BBC News: “Figures on Thursday, external show that 44% of early ballots have been cast by Democrats, and 31.2% by Republicans. A further 24.7% were attributed to voters who had no party affiliation.”
SupportedMcDonald said communities of colour are more frequently part of the Democratic coalition and white people more frequently part of the Republican coalition.BBC News: “"That makes sense because communities of colour are more frequently part of the Democratic coalition, and whites are more frequently part of the Republican coalition," McDonald says.”
SupportedMcDonald said some border counties could beat their 2022 turnout in early voting alone.BBC News: “"When I look at those counties, what I see is some of them are going to beat their 2022 turnout in just the early vote alone," says McDonald.”
SupportedMinneapolis announced an early-voting record for a non-presidential election on Thursday.BBC News: “On Thursday, the city of Minneapolis said that it has set an early voting record for a non-presidential election.”