OpenAI has cut the target for its latest fundraising round by $10 billion to $20 billion, sources told the Financial Times, amid a tech-stock selloff driven by concerns over massive AI spending; its expected valuation also fell to $1.25 trillion from $1.4 trillion.
The ChatGPT maker set a Friday deadline for investor commitments, but the first close is expected to raise less than $20 billion after some investors reduced their allocations, the FT reported. A consortium of UAE investors including state-backed technology fund MGX is expected to be the largest participant, with the deal expected to give OpenAI an option to lease newly developed computing capacity in the region. Venture capital firms Founders Fund, Coatue, Sequoia Capital and Andreessen Horowitz are also expected to participate, according to the report. Wealthy individuals will have the option to invest in a subsequent retail offering at the $1.25 trillion valuation.
The funding round was also upstaged by Anthropic, OpenAI’s arch-rival, which filed an S-1 on Monday ahead of its planned IPO next month, showing revenue growth and positive cash flow in the first half of this year. OpenAI, which is pursuing a listing in 2027, had been keen to close the round partly to get ahead of Anthropic’s imminent listing as the two tap a similar investor base, Reuters reported.
The timing coincided with a brutal week for technology stocks. Quarterly earnings from hyperscalers spooked investors. Alphabet’s cash flow sank deeper into negative territory in the third quarter, while the Google parent joined Meta and Amazon in charging ahead with massive spending plans. Alphabet fell about 12% on Thursday, its worst day on record. The Nasdaq index dropped 2.9% on Friday and is down 7.8% from its all-time closing high reached on October 6.
The prospect of sustained cash deficits was too much for S&P Global, which cut its outlook on Meta to “negative” from “stable” late Friday, citing negative cash flow and uncertainty around capital expenditure plans. S&P kept Meta at AA- but warned its leverage could top 1.0x as soon as 2027, the downgrade threshold for the current rating. It estimated Meta’s capex at $140 billion this year, topping $225 billion in 2027 and reaching $252 billion in 2028, with free operating cash flow remaining negative through that period. S&P said Meta’s ability to monetise its AI investments is more limited than that of peers, who lease compute capacity to frontier model labs and enterprise customers. In a statement to Fortune, a Meta spokesperson said the company disagrees with that assessment, pointing to “significant product and business opportunities” ahead and arguing that AI investments are already delivering “stronger engagement, better recommendations, and greater returns for businesses.”
Some voices remain bullish. Market veteran Ed Yardeni said the AI investment boom faces financial, physical and political constraints that, if they worsen, could lead to further stock declines, but called the constraints “healthy for the durability of the AI boom,” arguing that less readily available capital could encourage more efficient allocation. He expects hyperscalers to retain financing access and keep spending, and said further AI jitters “could set up buying opportunities rather than signal the end of the boom.”
Analysis
Why This Matters
- OpenAI’s reduced target signals that even the most prominent AI companies are facing investor caution, potentially tempering the flow of capital that has fuelled the sector’s rapid expansion.
- S&P’s outlook cut on Meta underscores growing unease about whether hyperscaler spending on AI infrastructure will generate timely returns, affecting how other technology companies are valued.
- The dynamic suggests a possible shift from a period of near-unlimited funding to one where AI firms must demonstrate clearer monetisation paths.
Background
The AI boom has been fuelled by massive capital spending from companies like Meta, Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft, which are building out data centre capacity. OpenAI’s $30 billion funding target set earlier this year was part of that trend. However, Wall Street has recently turned bearish amid rising bond yields, political backlash against data centres and a selloff in tech stocks, raising questions about the sustainability of the investment cycle.
Key Perspectives
- S&P Global: sees Meta’s ability to monetise AI investments as more limited than peers, warning its leverage could rise to a downgrade threshold by 2027, with free cash flow remaining negative through 2028.
- Meta spokesperson: disagrees with S&P’s assessment, saying the company is already seeing returns from AI and believes its investments will open “new revenue streams” and create long-term shareholder value.
- Market veteran Ed Yardeni: views the constraints on AI investment as “healthy” and expects hyperscalers to keep spending, with any selloff creating buying opportunities rather than signalling the end of the boom.
What to Watch
- The size of the first close of OpenAI’s round and whether it reaches the revised $20 billion target through the retail offering.
- Anthropic’s IPO next month, particularly market reception given the more cautious environment.
- Meta’s quarterly cash flow and capex disclosures for signs that spending is narrowing or monetisation is accelerating.
Checked
12 claims in this story checked against 2 sources: 11 supported.
Show each claim
- SupportedOpenAI cut its latest fundraising target by $10 billion to $20 billion.Fortune | FORTUNE: “OpenAI slashed the target on its latest fundraising round to $20 billion from $30 billion, sources told the Financial Times .”
- SupportedThe fundraising cut came amid a tech-stock selloff driven by worries about massive AI spending.US Top News and Analysis: “OpenAI has slashed the target for its latest funding round by $10 billion amid a selloff in tech stocks driven by AI worries”
- Reports differOpenAI’s expected valuation fell to $1.25 trillion from $1.4 trillion.US Top News and Analysis: “The ChatGPT maker is now seeking about $20 billion and its desired valuation has dropped to $1.25 trillion from $1.4 billion”
- SupportedOpenAI set a Friday deadline for investor commitments, and the first close is expected to raise less than $20 billion after some investors reduced their allocations.US Top News and Analysis: “OpenAI set a Friday deadline for investors to commit to the funding round, but the "first close" is expected to raise less than $20 billion after some investors reduced their allocations”
- SupportedA UAE investor consortium including MGX is expected to be the largest participant, and the deal is expected to give OpenAI an option to lease newly developed computing capacity in the region.US Top News and Analysis: “A consortium of UAE investors that includes state-backed technology fund MGX is expected to be the largest participant in the round, and as part of the deal, OpenAI would gain the option to lease newly developed computing capacity in the region”
- SupportedAnthropic filed an S-1 on Monday ahead of a planned IPO next month, showing revenue growth and positive cash flow in the first half of the year.Fortune | FORTUNE: “Ahead of its IPO, Anthropic filed an S-1 on Monday that showed revenue has soared and its cash flow turned positive in the first half of this year.”
- SupportedOpenAI is pursuing a 2027 listing and was keen to close the round partly to get ahead of Anthropic’s listing because they are tapping a similar investor base.US Top News and Analysis: “OpenAI, which is pursuing a listing in 2027, has been keen to close the funding round partly to get ahead of Anthropic's imminent listing as the two are tapping a similar investor base, Reuters has reported.”
- SupportedThe Nasdaq fell 2.9% on Friday and was down 7.8% from its October 6 all-time closing high.US Top News and Analysis: “The tech-heavy Nasdaq index dropped 2.9% on Friday and is down 7.8% from its all-time closing high reached on October 6.”
- SupportedS&P Global cut Meta’s outlook from stable to negative late Friday, citing negative cash flow and uncertainty around capital expenditure plans.Fortune | FORTUNE: “S&P Global, which cut its outlook on Meta to “negative” from “stable” late Friday, citing negative cash flow and uncertainty around capital expenditure plans.”
- SupportedS&P estimated Meta’s capex at $140 billion this year, more than $225 billion in 2027 and $252 billion in 2028, with free operating cash flow negative throughout that period.Fortune | FORTUNE: “S&P sees Meta’s capex reaching $140 billion this year, topping $225 billion in 2027, hitting $252 billion in 2028, and then flattening out from there. As a result, it expects free operating cash flow to remain negative”
- SupportedA Meta spokesperson told Fortune the company disagreed with S&P’s assessment and referred to “significant product and business opportunities” and “stronger engagement, better recommendations, and greater returns for businesses.”Fortune | FORTUNE: “In a statement to Fortune , a Meta spokesperson said the company disagrees with S&P’s assessment of its AI monetization capabilities, pointing to “significant product and business opportunities” ahead. “Meta is already delivering stronger engagement, better recommendations, and greater returns for businesses as a result of AI investments,””
- SupportedEd Yardeni called the constraints on the AI investment boom “healthy for the durability of the AI boom.”Fortune | FORTUNE: ““However, we view these constraints as healthy for the durability of the AI boom!” he added.”