Algeria Moves to Reclaim Sahel Broker Role as Mali Retakes Kidal

Analysts point to Algerian influence behind separatist withdrawal as Algiers reopens ties with Bamako

By LineZotpaper
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Algeria is aggressively reasserting its influence in the Sahel, seeking to reclaim its traditional role as security mediator just as Mali's military and its Russian allies retake the strategic city of Kidal from Tuareg separatists. The recapture comes amid a resumption of bilateral ties, with Algiers reopening its airspace to Bamako in July after a 15-month rift.

The Malian military and its Russian allies retook Kidal last week after a tactical withdrawal by Tuareg separatists, who had captured the strategic city in April. According to some analysts, Algeria may have played a role in convincing the rebels to withdraw.

The developments come as Algiers works to restore ties with Bamako. Algeria reopened its airspace to Mali in July, ending a 15-month rift that followed a dispute over Algeria shooting down a Malian drone along their shared border.

Algeria, the second-strongest military power in Africa after Egypt, served for decades as a peace broker between Tuareg rebels and Mali's government. In recent months it has aggressively sought to reclaim that role, alongside its traditional status as a security mediator in the Sahel, amid escalating security threats across the region.

While Algeria's foreign policy maintains a strategy of noninterference in other states' internal affairs, it has historically viewed the Sahel and West Africa as its backyard.

"They've always sort of looked at the Sahel as part of the general geopolitical area in which they exert their influence," said Intissar Fakir, a senior fellow and the founding director of the North Africa and Sahel program at the Middle East Institute.

With Mali, Fakir added, "there's a lot of shared interests in terms of the Tuareg issue, in terms of counterterrorism." In particular, Algeria fears insurgency spilling over into its southern regions among its own Tuareg populations, according to some analysts.

But as Algeria's role in the Sahel has waned in recent years, it has become increasingly worried about foreign actors, including Russia and the United Arab Emirates, pushing for greater influence in the region. "Algeria began to find itself quite isolated in its own neighborhood," Fakir said.

Algeria has long disapproved of Mali's use of Russian mercenaries, despite its good relations with Moscow. That prompted Mali in 2024 to terminate the Algiers Accord, a peace deal brokered in 2015 by Algeria between the Malian government and a Tuareg-led coalition of Azawad separatists. Relations between Algeria and Sahelian countries broke down further after the accord was scrapped, before the recent thaw.

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Analysis

Why This Matters

  • Algeria's push to reclaim its mediation role could reshape security dynamics in a region where Russian influence has expanded since Mali turned to Moscow.
  • The recapture of Kidal shifts the balance between Mali's military and Tuareg separatists, with potential consequences across the wider Sahel.
  • Algeria's fear of insurgency spilling across its southern border ties the Sahel conflict directly to its own domestic stability.

Background

Algeria has long viewed the Sahel and West Africa as its sphere of influence, serving for decades as a peace broker between Tuareg rebels and Mali's government. That role was cemented by the 2015 Algiers Accord, a peace deal between Bamako and a Tuareg-led coalition of Azawad separatists. Mali terminated the accord in 2024, driven in part by Algeria's disapproval of Mali's reliance on Russian mercenaries. Relations then deteriorated further, including a dispute over Algeria shooting down a Malian drone, before the recent reopening of ties.

Key Perspectives

Algeria: Seeks to restore its status as the Sahel's security mediator, motivated by shared interests with Mali on the Tuareg question and counterterrorism, and by fear of an insurgency spilling into its own southern regions.

Mali and its Russian allies: Have pursued a military path, retaking Kidal after the separatists' tactical withdrawal, and terminated the Algiers Accord in favor of closer ties with Moscow.

Analysts: Intissar Fakir of the Middle East Institute says Algeria has always treated the Sahel as an area where it exerts influence, and warns that it had become increasingly isolated in its own neighborhood as Russia and the UAE moved in.

What to Watch

  • Whether Algeria can convert the reopening of airspace and the diplomatic thaw into a revived mediation role in Mali.
  • How Mali's Russian partners respond to any return of Algerian influence in Bamako.
  • Whether Tuareg separatists attempt to regroup after withdrawing from Kidal.

Sources

Zotpaper

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