Arson offences in Victoria have surged by nearly 75 per cent since a decade low in 2021, according to data obtained by this masthead, while firebombings have become an everyday weapon of intimidation. Stonnington recorded a 385 per cent increase in arson attacks over the past decade, and a firefighting source said police sometimes issue advance pre-warnings to firefighters that a target somewhere in their service area could soon be hit.
The Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission said it identified more than 200 arson attacks nationwide linked to the illicit tobacco trade between 2023 and early 2026. An analysis of more than 29,000 arson offences between June 2017 and June 2026 found that while overall arson increased 11 per cent in a decade, attacks on retailers soared by almost 140 per cent.
An organised crime detective who cannot be publicly identified described the economics behind the trend. 'It can cost next to nothing to send someone out to stage a firebombing, there's that many kids willing to do it,' the detective said. A jerrycan costs as little as $20 and its contents less than $10. Contracts for firebombings, often carried out by teenagers, cost as little as $200, with more professional operators charging up to $20,000.
In January 2025, Katie Tangey died alongside a family dog when arsonists targeted the wrong house, according to WA Today. No one has been arrested for that crime. Teenagers are among those recruited to carry out arson attacks. A 22-year-old was left for dead after setting a fire at a western suburbs tobacco shop in September. Detective Inspector Chris Murray of the arson squad said police would hold accomplices accountable. ‘This individual will have life-changing injuries. His mate, when we catch him, will be charged with the offending that comes with this crime,’ Murray said.
Gangs have increasingly used encrypted messaging to recruit teenagers for the attacks. Police intelligence suggests one recently arrested middle man had access to up to 2000 foot soldiers. The Commission for Children and Young People had warned in 2021 of growing concerns over the criminal exploitation of children and recommended a specialist joint state response to stop young people in residential care being groomed, but the request went nowhere. The pace of attacks is now nearly as bad as the height of the tobacco war in 2025, with more than 23 businesses, homes and cars targeted in just over a fortnight in October. Deliberately lit house fires doubled between 2017 and 2026, and even police stations have been targeted, with 60 set on fire in the past decade.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- Arson is replacing gun violence as a cheap and low-risk intimidation tactic for organised crime, placing entire neighbourhoods and emergency services at risk.
- The widespread use of vulnerable teenagers as foot soldiers points to a critical failure in preventing children from being groomed by criminal networks.
- The spread of firebombings from the tobacco trade to homes, restaurants and public transport suggests the tactic is becoming endemic across Victoria.
Background
Victoria's 'tobacco war' erupted in 2023 when gangs moved to control the lucrative illicit cigarette market. Arson rapidly became the standard method of enforcing extortion and eliminating competition. Attacks on tobacco retailers rose from 47 in 2021 to 102 in 2022, and by 2025 the tactic had spread beyond tobacco to restaurants and homes. Police and the Commission for Children and Young People had raised concerns about youth exploitation, but recommendations for a statewide response were not implemented.
Key Perspectives
Organised Crime Squad detectives: describe the attacks as a cheap and low-risk tactic that has become increasingly difficult to investigate as gangs recruit teenagers through encrypted messaging.
Detective Inspector Chris Murray: states police will hold co-offenders accountable for the life-changing injuries sustained by their own associates in botched attacks.
Commission for Children and Young People: had recommended a specialist joint response to stop children in residential care being groomed by crime gangs, but the request went nowhere.
Firefighting source: said police are now sometimes issuing 'pre-warnings' to fire services about where and when targets might be hit.
What to Watch
- Whether the Victorian government and Victoria Police finally implement the specialist joint response to youth criminal exploitation recommended by the Commission for Children and Young People.
- The outcome of the investigation into the January 2025 fatal attack that killed Katie Tangey, for which no arrests have been made.
- Whether the pre-warning system for firefighters becomes standard practice as the threat continues to evolve.
Checked
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 11 supported.
Show each claim
- SupportedArson offences in Victoria soared 75 per cent.WA Today - Latest News: “New data obtained by this masthead from the Crime Statistics Agency shows arson offences have soared nearly 75 per cent since a decade low in 2021.”
- SupportedFirebombings have become a routine, everyday weapon of intimidation.WA Today - Latest News: “The unprecedented rise of firebombings as an everyday weapon of intimidation and revenge means that, on average, nearly 10 fires are being deliberately lit every day”
- SupportedPolice sometimes issue firefighters advance warnings that a target in their service area could soon be hit.WA Today - Latest News: “A firefighting source, who cannot be identified publicly, said police were now sometimes issuing alerts to firefighters in advance – called a “pre-warning” – that a target somewhere in their service area could soon be hit.”
- SupportedStonnington recorded a 385 per cent increase in arson attacks over the past decade.WA Today - Latest News: “Stonnington recorded a 385 per cent increase in arson attacks over the decade to June 2026, with 34 incidents in that year alone”
- SupportedThe Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission said it identified more than 200 arson attacks nationwide linked to illicit tobacco between 2023 and early 2026.WA Today - Latest News: “The Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission said it identified more than 200 arson attacks nationwide linked to the illicit tobacco trade between 2023 and early 2026.”
- SupportedAn analysis covered more than 29,000 arson offences between June 2017 and June 2026.WA Today - Latest News: “Analysis of more than 29,000 arson offences between June 2017 and June 2026 emphasises just how targeted and calculating arsonists have been.”
- SupportedOverall arson offences increased 11 per cent in a decade, while attacks on retailers rose almost 140 per cent.WA Today - Latest News: “While overall arson offences have only increased by 11 per cent in Victoria over the past decade, attacks on retailers have soared by almost 140 per cent.”
- SupportedThe organised crime detective said, “It can cost next to nothing to send someone out to stage a firebombing, there's that many kids willing to do it.”WA Today - Latest News: ““It can cost next to nothing to send someone out to stage a firebombing – there’s that many kids willing to do it.””
- SupportedA jerrycan costs as little as $20 and its contents less than $10; firebombing contracts can cost as little as $200, with more professional operators charging up to $20,000.WA Today - Latest News: “A jerrycan costs as little as $20 to buy and its contents less than $10. Contracts to do firebombings, often by teenagers, cost as little as $200. More “professional” operators can charge up to $20,000.”
- SupportedKatie Tangey died with a family dog when arsonists targeted the wrong house in January 2025.WA Today - Latest News: “Katie Tangey died along with a family dog when arsonists, believed to have been sent by Kaz Hamad, targeted the wrong house in January 2025.”
- SupportedNo one has been arrested for the crime in which Tangey died.WA Today - Latest News: “No one has been arrested for that crime.”
- Partly supportedMurray said, “His mate, when we catch him, will be charged with the offending that comes with this crime.”WA Today - Latest News: ““His mate, when we catch him, will be charged with the offending that comes with [this crime].””