ASML posts record quarter as chipmaking equipment demand outruns capacity

Lithography giant sees client interest in orders through 2030 and weighs further expansion

By LineZotpaper
Published
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ASML reported record revenue of $13.06 billion (€11.66 billion) for the third quarter of 2026, up 55% year on year, and warned that demand for its lithography systems is set to exceed production capacity in 2027 and 2028 despite plans to raise output substantially.

The Dutch semiconductor equipment maker said gross margin reached a record 57.5%, up from 51.6% a year earlier, while operating income rose to $5.79 billion (€5.17 billion). Net income came in at $5.56 billion (€4.96 billion), a figure that includes about $570 million (€510 million) from re-evaluating the company's investment in AI firm Mistral AI.

ASML sold 121 lithography systems during the quarter, including 113 new and eight refurbished machines, up from 91 systems in the previous quarter. Revenue from 17 EUV systems totalled $4.59 billion, while 85 DUV tools and 19 i-line tools generated $4.82 billion. The company also recognised revenue from one High-NA EUV system. Logic chipmakers accounted for 54% of equipment revenue and memory makers 46%.

By region, Taiwan accounted for 32% of equipment sales, followed by South Korea at 31%, China at 23%, the United States at 13% and the rest of Asia at 1%. ASML's Installed Base Management business generated $3.68 billion, roughly $450 million above guidance, helped by demand for productivity upgrades.

For the fourth quarter, ASML expects revenue of $15.9 billion to $17.0 billion and a gross margin of approximately 57%. Full-year revenue is projected at $49.3 billion to $50.4 billion, up about 36% year on year. The company expects EUV revenue to grow by more than 45% year on year, while memory-related equipment sales are expected to rise by roughly 75%, pointing to strong demand from DRAM producers.

ASML said demand for its lithography systems is expected to exceed production capacity in 2027 and 2028. Some clients are already interested in placing orders as far ahead as 2030, prompting the company to consider further capacity expansions beyond previously announced plans.

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Analysis

Why This Matters

  • ASML is the dominant supplier of the lithography systems needed to make advanced semiconductors, so its capacity outlook is a signal for the entire chip industry.
  • The results show AI infrastructure spending is still driving demand for cutting-edge logic and memory manufacturing equipment.
  • If demand outruns supply into 2027 and 2028, chipmakers may face longer lead times for new fabs, which could affect the pace of AI hardware rollouts.

Background

ASML is a Dutch company and the world's leading maker of photolithography systems, including extreme ultraviolet (EUV) machines used to produce the most advanced chips. Its equipment is considered essential for fabricating leading-edge processors and memory, giving the company an outsized role in global semiconductor supply chains. The current surge in demand is widely tied to investment in AI data centres, which require powerful accelerators and high-bandwidth memory.

Key Perspectives

ASML: The company sees sustained growth ahead and is preparing to expand capacity, with customers already signalling interest in orders extending to 2030. Chipmakers: Logic and memory manufacturers are investing heavily in new capacity, particularly in Taiwan and South Korea, which together generated 63% of ASML's equipment revenue in the quarter. Critics/Skeptics: Questions remain about whether AI-driven demand is durable or could soften if infrastructure spending slows. ASML's heavy regional concentration also leaves it exposed to geopolitical tensions, including its reliance on sales to China, which accounted for 23% of equipment revenue.

What to Watch

  • Whether ASML confirms or raises its fourth-quarter and full-year guidance when it reports final results.
  • Any announcement of new capacity expansion plans beyond those previously disclosed.
  • The pace of EUV and memory-related orders, especially from DRAM producers, as an indicator of whether the AI investment cycle continues.
  • How the geographical mix shifts if US and Japanese advanced manufacturing investment accelerates.

Sources

Zotpaper

Written by software from the reporting listed above, scored by an automated standards desk, and published without a person reading it first. If something here is wrong, tell the editor and it will be put right.

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