BlueScope earnings windfall tied to Trump steel tariffs

Australian steelmaker raises earnings forecast after near-75pc profit surge from North American operations

By LineZotpaper AI staff

Published28 October 2026

Read Time2 min

Sources2 outlets

Illustration: BlueScope earnings windfall tied to Trump steel tariffs

Australian steel company BlueScope has significantly raised its earnings forecast, driven largely by a near 75 per cent increase in earnings from its North American mini-mill. The windfall is attributed to US President Donald Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, which have pushed domestic US steel prices to their highest level in four years.

BlueScope's earnings upgrade is the direct result of US President Donald Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminium, which have pushed domestic US steel prices to their highest level in four years.

Writing for the Brisbane Times and WA Today, business columnist Stephen Bartholomeusz noted that BlueScope's shares are now trading nearly 40 per cent above the price offered in a takeover bid from the Stokes family's SGH and North America's Steel Dynamics in December last year, and have exceeded the final, sweetened bid of $14.2 billion.

The column outlines the tariff timeline: a 25 per cent rate imposed soon after the President's inauguration last year was doubled to 50 per cent in June after a court ruling against a broader tariff regime. President Trump also approved the acquisition of US Steel by Japan's Nippon Steel.

US steel prices have risen for 12 consecutive months. Hot rolled coil prices are up more than 50 per cent. The largest US producer, Nucor, generated $3.2 billion in net income in the first nine months of this year, compared with $2 billion in all of last year.

The column also highlights offsetting costs. It cites studies from the Peterson Institute for International Economics and Federal Reserve Board researchers from Trump's first term. Those studies found that the 25 per cent tariffs cost downstream steel using companies about $5.6 billion and roughly 75,000 jobs, far more than the numbers added by steelmakers.

Bartholomeusz argues that the tariffs have not produced a manufacturing boom, noting that US manufacturing employment remains more than 20,000 jobs below the level when Joe Biden left office. The analysis concludes the tariffs are likely to remain indefinitely, as both political parties are keen to retain the support of steel industry workers.

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Analysis

Why This Matters

Highlights the direct financial impact of US trade policy on a major Australian company and its shareholders.
Illustrates the trade-off between benefits for protected industries and costs for downstream users and consumers.
Suggests the tariffs may be politically durable across different administrations, locking in higher prices.

Background

President Trump imposed 25 per cent tariffs on steel and aluminium soon after his inauguration in 2025, citing national security. After a court ruling against his broader tariff regime, he doubled the steel and aluminium rate to 50 per cent in June 2025. BlueScope, which operates a mini-mill in North America, rejected takeover offers from SGH and Steel Dynamics earlier this year, a decision that has proven profitable as US steel prices have surged.

Key Perspectives

Donald Trump: The column reports the tariffs were framed by the president as a national security measure.

Peterson Institute for International Economics / US Federal Reserve Board: Studies cited in the column from Trump's first term concluded that the initial 25 per cent tariffs cost US downstream steel using companies $5.6 billion and approximately 75,000 jobs, vastly outweighing the jobs added in steel production.

What to Watch

US manufacturing employment data for signs of whether the downstream damage from doubled tariffs is escalating.
The potential for a shift in control of Congress or the White House to alter the tariff regime, which the analysis suggests is unlikely given bipartisan support for steel protectionism.

Sources

Thank you, Mr President: BlueScope gets a windfall from Trump’s tariffs · WAtoday
Thank you, Mr President: BlueScope gets a windfall from Trump’s tariffs · Brisbane Times

Checked

11 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 7 supported.

Show each claim

SupportedBlueScope’s earnings windfall is tied to Trump’s steel tariffs.WA Today - Latest News: “It’s his tariffs that are primarily responsible for US steel prices reaching their highest level in four years.”
Partly supportedBlueScope raised its earnings forecast after a near-75 per cent profit surge from North American operations.WA Today - Latest News: “Australian steel giant BlueScope raised its earnings forecast significantly this week, driven largely by a near 75 per cent increase in earnings from its North American mini-mill.”
SupportedTrump’s tariffs on steel and aluminium imports pushed US steel prices to their highest level in four years.WA Today - Latest News: “It’s his tariffs that are primarily responsible for US steel prices reaching their highest level in four years.”
Partly supportedBlueScope’s shares were nearly 40 per cent above the price offered in a takeover bid from SGH and Steel Dynamics in December last year.WA Today - Latest News: “BlueScope’s shares are now trading nearly 40 per cent above the price offered in the initial approach in December last year”
SupportedBlueScope’s shares exceeded the final sweetened price in a $14.2 billion bid.WA Today - Latest News: “they have exceeded the final, sweetened price in the $14.2 billion bid”
SupportedA 25 per cent tariff imposed soon after Trump’s inauguration last year was doubled to 50 per cent in June after a court ruling against a broader tariff regime.WA Today - Latest News: “In June last year, after a lower court ruled Trump’s broader “Liberation Day” tariffs illegal (a decision later reaffirmed by the US Supreme Court), Trump doubled the rate on steel and aluminium imports to 50 per cent.”
SupportedUS steel prices rose for 12 consecutive months, and hot-rolled coil prices rose by more than 50 per cent.WA Today - Latest News: “Last month was the 12th consecutive monthly increase in US steel prices. ... Hot-rolled coil prices are up by more than 50 per cent.”
Partly supportedNucor, the largest US producer, made $3.2 billion in net income in the first nine months of this year, compared with $2 billion in all of last year.WA Today - Latest News: “The largest, Nucor, had net income of $US2 billion last year. In only the first nine months of this year it has generated $US3.2 billion.”
Partly supportedStudies found that the 25 per cent tariffs cost downstream steel-using companies about $5.6 billion and roughly 75,000 jobs.WA Today - Latest News: “the Peterson Institute for International Economics produced a study that concluded that the tariffs cost American downstream steel-using companies about $US5.6 billion”
SupportedUS manufacturing employment remains more than 20,000 jobs below its level when Biden left office.WA Today - Latest News: “Employment in manufacturing, while picking up this year, is still more than 20,000 jobs below the level when Biden left office.”
SupportedThe tariffs are likely to remain indefinitely because both political parties want the support of steel industry workers.WA Today - Latest News: “It’s also unlikely, given that the Democrats are as keen to win the support of steel industry workers and their powerful union as the Republicans, that a shift in the control of Congress or a change in the occupancy of the White House will lead to a material change in the tariffs.”