China's advisory to its citizens in Eswatini marks a significant escalation in Beijing's diplomatic offensive against Taiwan's remaining allies. Eswatini, an absolute monarchy in southern Africa, is one of only 12 countries worldwide—and the only one in Africa—that maintain formal diplomatic relations with Taipei, not Beijing. The move follows a pattern of Chinese pressure tactics that have steadily reduced Taiwan's diplomatic footprint over the past decade.
China's embassy in Mbabane did not elaborate on the specific threats, but the advisory warns of 'potential security risks' and recommends Chinese nationals depart 'as soon as possible.' Such warnings are often precursors to broader economic or political measures. In recent years, China has used its global influence to persuade or coerce countries to switch recognition, often dangling trade deals, investment, or aid. At least nine countries have severed ties with Taiwan since 2016, including Panama, the Dominican Republic, and El Salvador.
Eswatini has remained a steadfast ally of Taiwan, with King Mswati III visiting Taipei as recently as 2022. The kingdom receives significant Taiwanese aid, agricultural assistance, and technical support. However, Eswatini is also a member of the African Union and the Southern African Development Community, both of which formally adhere to the One-China policy. This diplomatic isolation puts Eswatini in a vulnerable position, as China is Africa's largest trading partner and a major investor in infrastructure projects across the continent.
Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed concern over the advisory, stating that it is 'closely monitoring the situation' and reaffirming support for Eswatini's sovereignty. Taipei has long argued that its diplomatic recognition is a matter of sovereign choice, not a challenge to the One-China principle. Beijing, however, views any country that maintains official ties with Taiwan as a violation of diplomatic norms.
The advisory could signal a new phase in China's efforts to squeeze Taiwan's remaining allies. Some analysts suggest China may be preparing to use economic leverage—such as restricting trade or investment—to pressure Eswatini, which remains heavily reliant on Taiwanese assistance. Others point to the possibility of a regional security pretext, though no visible threats currently exist in the kingdom.
Eswatini's government has not yet publicly responded to the Chinese advisory. The kingdom's foreign minister has previously stated that relations with Taiwan are based on 'mutual benefit' and that Eswatini will not be bullied into changing its position. However, internal economic pressures, including a fiscal crisis and high unemployment, may make it increasingly difficult to resist Beijing's overtures.
International observers are watching closely to see if other Taiwan allies—such as Paraguay, Vatican City, or Pacific island nations—will face similar advisories. The move also underscores the deepening geopolitical rivalry between the world's two largest economies, which has increasingly played out in the diplomatic arena.