Russian government projections show China paying roughly 56 percent less than other foreign customers for Russian natural gas in 2026, according to The Moscow Times, which cited Russian Duma documentation. The reporting, carried by Eurasianet, says the steep discount reflects the Kremlin's fiscal dependence on Beijing and comes as China expands investment in mining, ports, energy and digital infrastructure across Central Asia.
Russian government projections put the price Beijing will pay at an average of about $248 per thousand cubic meters of pipeline gas in 2026, compared with $562 for Gazprom's other foreign customers outside the former Soviet Union, a discount of up to 56 percent. The reporting describes the steep discount as the cost of Beijing's ongoing political support for the Kremlin's war effort in Ukraine.
With Western sanctions in force and the European Union working to reduce its reliance on Russian gas, Chinese purchases are a crucial source of funds for Russia's war effort, and Moscow hopes to reduce the discounts in coming years. The scale of the concession is visible against China's other suppliers: an estimate from Carnegie's Russia Eurasia Center found China pays up to $60 per thousand cubic meters more to Turkmenistan than it pays Russia. Talks on a new "Power of Siberia 2" pipeline have also stalled over a pricing dispute, according to Beijing-connected media reports.
"It's much harder for Russian negotiators today," Sergei Vakulenko, a senior fellow at Carnegie, wrote in the estimate. He argued that growing confrontation between the United States and China, and instability in the Middle East, should push China toward pipeline gas rather than LNG, which would favour Moscow. But the break with Europe has left Gazprom with huge gas reserves in Siberia's Yamal Peninsula that are ready to be exploited but have no customers, "significantly strengthening China's position."
The Eurasianet report also charts a wider Chinese push into Central Asia. Chinese Premier Li Qiang visited Uzbekistan and Tajikistan from October 17 to 19, producing deals including a non-ferrous metallurgy industrial cluster in Tajikistan's Sughd region. In Kazakhstan, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev launched construction of a $1.8 billion copper smelter at the Aktogay deposit, developed by KAZ Minerals with NFC, a subsidiary of China Nonferrous Metal Mining Group. A Chinese corporate disclosure dated October 21 says NFC's Kazakh entity has signed only a preparatory-work agreement capped at about $10 million; the full construction contract remains unsigned.
Kazakhstan's Baiterek JSC signed a memorandum of understanding with China's Guoyou Materials Group covering a $1 billion investment to develop the port of Kuryk on the Caspian Sea. In Uzbekistan, state company Uzbekneftegaz and CNPC discussed expanding energy-sector cooperation, including diversifying petroleum product supplies, after Russia reduced oil product deliveries to Central Asian states in recent months following Ukrainian drone strikes on its energy infrastructure. Tajikistan's Tajiktelecom and China Mobile launched the Tajikistan-China International Digital Corridor, a 1,010 km fiber-optic line running from Dushanbe, while Kazakhstan's national security committee said it detained 13 Chinese nationals alleged to have operated an international online fraud scheme from the country.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- Chinese payments are a key revenue source for Moscow while Western sanctions and falling European demand have shrunk Gazprom's market, handing Beijing unusual pricing power.
- The discount is a visible measure of Russia's weakened negotiating position in its most important energy relationship, and Moscow's own projections concede the gap will close only gradually.
- China's Central Asia activity, from copper mining and port development to telecom corridors and policy forums, is extending its influence across a region that borders both powers.
Background
Russia's gas trade has been reshaped since European buyers began cutting purchases under Western sanctions imposed over the war in Ukraine, making Chinese purchases a crucial source of funds for Gazprom. Moscow has long sought a second major pipeline to China, "Power of Siberia 2," but price talks have repeatedly stalled. In parallel, China has steadily expanded its economic footprint across the former Soviet states of Central Asia, investing in the region's infrastructure and resources.
Key Perspectives
- Russian government projections: show China paying about $248 per thousand cubic meters in 2026, around 56 percent less than other foreign customers, with Moscow hoping to reduce the discount in coming years.
- Sergei Vakulenko, senior fellow at Carnegie's Russia Eurasia Center: says it is "much harder for Russian negotiators today," with Gazprom's idle Yamal reserves and the lost European market "significantly strengthening China's position."
What to Watch
- Whether the "Power of Siberia 2" pricing dispute is resolved, a test of how much bargaining power Beijing still holds.
- Whether NFC moves from its roughly $10 million preparatory agreement to a full construction contract for the Aktogay copper smelter.
- Whether future Russian projections narrow the gas discount, and whether the $1 billion Kuryk port memorandum becomes a binding commitment.
Checked
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 10 supported.
Show each claim
- Partly supportedChina will pay 56% less than other foreign buyers for Russian gas in 2026.Oilprice.com: “Russian government projections show China paying approximately 56% less for Russian natural gas than other foreign customers outside the former Soviet Union in 2026.”
- SupportedChina is expanding investment across Central Asia in mining, ports, energy and digital infrastructure.Oilprice.com: “Chinese companies are advancing major copper, port infrastructure, energy, and technology initiatives across Central Asia. Beijing is strengthening its regional influence through investments, digital connectivity, and partnerships with Central Asian governments.”
- SupportedThe Russian gas price figures come from Russian government projections cited by The Moscow Times, which cited Russian Duma documentation.Oilprice.com: “The Moscow Times (MT), citing Russian Duma documentation, shows that China will pay an average of approximately $248 per thousand cubic meters of pipeline gas in 2026”
- SupportedChina is projected to pay about $248 per thousand cubic meters of pipeline gas in 2026, compared with $562 for Gazprom’s other foreign customers outside the former Soviet Union.Oilprice.com: “China will pay an average of approximately $248 per thousand cubic meters of pipeline gas in 2026, compared with $562 for Gazprom's other foreign customers outside the former Soviet Union.”
- Partly supportedThe discount is described as the cost of Beijing’s political support for the Kremlin’s war effort in Ukraine.Oilprice.com: “The steep discount appears to be the cost of Beijing’s ongoing political support for the Kremlin’s war effort in Ukraine.”
- SupportedSergei Vakulenko wrote, “It's much harder for Russian negotiators today.”Oilprice.com: ““It’s much harder for Russian negotiators today,” Sergei Vakulenko, a senior fellow at Carnegie, wrote in the estimate.”
- SupportedVakulenko wrote that Gazprom’s break with Europe left it with huge gas reserves in Yamal that have no customers, “significantly strengthening China's position.”Oilprice.com: ““On the other hand, the break with Europe has left Gazprom with huge gas reserves in Siberia’s Yamal Peninsula that are ready to be exploited but have no customers, significantly strengthening China’s position.””
- SupportedA Carnegie estimate found China pays up to $60 per thousand cubic meters more to Turkmenistan than it pays Russia.Oilprice.com: “an estimate published by Carnegie’s Russia Eurasia Center showed China is paying up to $60 per tcm more to Turkmenistan than the Russian purchase price.”
- SupportedChinese Premier Li Qiang visited Uzbekistan and Tajikistan from October 17 to 19.Oilprice.com: “Chinese Premier Li Qiang traveled to Central Asia on October 17-19, visiting Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.”
- SupportedA non-ferrous metallurgy industrial cluster in Tajikistan’s Sughd region was among the deals produced by Li’s visit.Oilprice.com: “The tour produced deals with both Uzbekistan and Tajikistan , including for a non-ferrous metallurgy industrial cluster in the Sughd region.”
- SupportedNFC’s Kazakh entity had signed only a preparatory-work agreement, and the full construction contract remained unsigned.Oilprice.com: “a Chinese corporate disclosure dated October 21 indicates that NFC’s Kazakh entity has signed only a preparatory-work agreement, capped at 4.52 billion tenge (about $10 million), and that the full construction contract remains unsigned.”
- SupportedKazakhstan’s national security committee said it detained 13 Chinese nationals alleged to have operated an international online fraud scheme from Kazakhstan.Oilprice.com: “Kazakhstan’s Committee for National Security (KNB) reported that it detained 13 Chinese nationals allegedly operating an international online fraud scheme out of Kazakhstan”