Corporate spending on artificial intelligence flatlined over late summer, according to new data from expense management firm Ramp, even as token volumes rose; price competition and savvier customers may be capping revenue for OpenAI and Anthropic.
Ramp, which tracks corporate spending on AI tokens, found that token spend only grew 1.5% across August and September, a steep decline from the 42% month-on-month growth recorded in July. Ramp's lead economist Ara Kharazian said the top 1% of firms, the most intensive AI users, had stuttered slightly in their spending in August and September, coming in just below the nearly $10,000 per-employee levels they were hitting at summer peaks.
"Almost the entire spend on AI is from venture-backed, high-growth tech companies," Kharazian said in an interview with TechCrunch. "That's fine as long as AI spend continues to rise, but if it starts to slow down because of something in the market or some other factor, they will all start to slow down simultaneously, and that could lead to other cascading effects."
A key factor is the price war between OpenAI and Anthropic. In September, OpenAI cut API prices in half for two models, and Anthropic made significant reductions to its pricing. Anthropic said in a filing that the discounts slashed its revenue growth by about $600 million. Both companies have also been offering enterprise discounts intended to lock in customers, but which are hitting their revenue targets. Kharazian said it has become a buyer's market.
Bloomberg reported that Anthropic's potential valuation fell from an estimated $2 trillion in early October to between $1.2 trillion and $1.3 trillion. OpenAI lowered its own proposed valuation to $1.25 trillion from $1.4 trillion and cut its latest fundraising goals by about $10 billion. Kharazian said Ramp's dataset likely informs many investor concerns.
Growth among median firms (spending $12 to $15 per employee per month) and the top 10% (spending $600 to $1,000 per employee) has not been enough to make up the difference. Kharazian said companies are getting better at completing AI workloads cheaply, and Jev, a lightweight tool for choosing between predetermined outputs, is increasingly among the top performers on Ramp. “For a lot of AI use cases, you just need a simple Yes/No,” he said.
Notion co-founder Akshay Kothari posted internal data that matched Ramp's findings, summarising: "tokens go brr. Costs go ahhh."
Kharazian said the slowdown is not a demand problem: volumes are still rising. Instead, he pointed to competition and customer thrift as factors in the spending slowdown. “A lot of the assumptions that we had about the trajectory of AI spend are starting to break down,” he said. “You can use more AI, but use it for less. That's great for the customers ... but it's not necessarily great for the model companies.”
October data showed a re-acceleration, with token spend up 8.9% from September 23 to October 23, but Kharazian said headwinds on spend growth remain strong. He was skeptical that personal agents would provide the boost the industry needs for nonstop growth, saying they are not as economically productive as coding.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- The slowdown in corporate AI spending challenges the assumption of relentless hypergrowth that has underpinned massive valuations for companies like OpenAI and Anthropic.
- If the trend continues, it could impact the ability of AI companies to raise capital at high valuations, potentially slowing investment in new models and infrastructure.
- For businesses, the data suggests AI costs are becoming more manageable as competition drives down prices, but also indicates that the easy gains from early adoption are fading.
Background
AI companies have spent heavily on computing power and marketing to capture early enterprise customers, with venture capital backing fueling rapid revenue growth. Ramp is an expense-management platform that tracks corporate credit-card spending and has become a closely watched source for AI spend data. The so-called price war between OpenAI and Anthropic has intensified as both aim to lock in customers, even at the cost of short-term revenue.
Key Perspectives
Ara Kharazian (Ramp lead economist): Says the slowdown is a structural shift driven by competition and customer efficiency, not a demand problem. "The era of hypergrowth may be over." He warns that the concentration of AI spend among VC-backed tech firms makes the market vulnerable to cascading effects if growth stalls further.
AI companies (through actions reported): OpenAI and Anthropic have cut prices and offered enterprise discounts in a bid to retain customers, actions that industry observers say have compressed revenue growth and contributed to lower valuations.
Akshay Kothari (Notion co-founder): Posted internal data that matched Ramp's findings, summarising the dynamic as "tokens go brr. Costs go ahhh."
What to Watch
- Whether the October re-acceleration in token spend proves sustainable or is a short-term bump.
- The success of new products like personal agents: if they fail to drive spending at the level coding agents did, growth may remain tepid.
- Upcoming IPO plans for Anthropic and OpenAI's continued fundraising: investor appetite may hinge on whether this slowdown is cyclical or structural.
Checked
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 12 supported.
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- SupportedPrice competition and customer thrift may cap revenue growth for OpenAI and Anthropic.AI News & Artificial Intelligence | TechCrunch: “A new report from Ramp shows AI spending flatlined over late summer even as token volumes rose, a sign that price competition and savvier customers may be capping revenue for OpenAI and Anthropic.”
- SupportedRamp data showed token-spend growth of 1.5% across August and September.AI News & Artificial Intelligence | TechCrunch: “According to Ramp’s data, token spend only grew 1.5% across August and September.”
- SupportedCorporate AI spending flatlined over late summer even as token volumes rose.AI News & Artificial Intelligence | TechCrunch: “A new report from Ramp shows AI spending flatlined over late summer even as token volumes rose”
- SupportedToken spending grew 42% month on month in July.AI News & Artificial Intelligence | TechCrunch: “To compare, in July, it grew 42% from the previous month.”
- SupportedKharazian said that slowing AI spending among high-growth tech firms could lead to cascading effects.AI News & Artificial Intelligence | TechCrunch: ““That’s fine as long as AI spend continues to rise, but if it starts to slow down because of something in the market or some other factor, they will all start to slow down simultaneously, and that could lead to other cascading effects.””
- SupportedThe top 1% of firms had slightly slowed their spending in August and September, to just below their summer-peak level of about $10,000 per employee.AI News & Artificial Intelligence | TechCrunch: “Kharazian said he’s already seeing evidence that the top 1% of firms — the most “ AI-pilled ” — have stuttered slightly in their spend in August and September, coming up just below the $10,000 per-employee they were hitting at their summer peaks.”
- SupportedAnthropic said in a filing that its pricing discounts reduced revenue growth by about $600 million.AI News & Artificial Intelligence | TechCrunch: “Anthropic has also made significant reductions to pricing for Fable 5.1 and Opus 5.5 — a decision that the company said in a recent filing slashed revenue growth by about $600 million.”
- SupportedBloomberg reported that Anthropic’s potential valuation fell from an estimated $2 trillion in early October to $1.2 trillion–$1.3 trillion.AI News & Artificial Intelligence | TechCrunch: “Bloomberg reported Friday that Anthropic’s potential valuation sank from the $2 trillion estimated in early October to just $1.2 to $1.3 trillion.”
- SupportedOpenAI lowered its proposed valuation from $1.4 trillion to $1.25 trillion and cut its latest fundraising goals by about $10 billion.AI News & Artificial Intelligence | TechCrunch: “OpenAI also lowered its proposed valuation to $1.25 trillion from $1.4 trillion and slashed its latest fundraising goals by about $10 billion.”
- SupportedKharazian said that many AI use cases need only a simple yes-or-no answer.AI News & Artificial Intelligence | TechCrunch: ““For a lot of AI use cases, you just need a simple Yes/No,” Khazarian said.”
- SupportedNotion co-founder Akshay Kothari posted internal data matching Ramp’s findings and wrote, “tokens go brr. Costs go ahhh.”AI News & Artificial Intelligence | TechCrunch: “Notion co-founder Akshay Kothari recently posted internal data that matched Ramp’s insights. As he succinctly put it: “tokens go brr. Costs go ahhh.””
- SupportedOctober token spend rose 8.9% from September 23 to October 23.AI News & Artificial Intelligence | TechCrunch: “October data did see a re-acceleration, with token spend up 8.9% from September 23 to October 23”
