A new poll from the Deseret News-Hinckley Institute of Politics shows that corruption is among voters' top concerns ahead of Tuesday's midterm elections, with perceptions sharply divided along party lines, a dynamic that is complicating the Texas Senate race between scandal-plagued Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Representative James Talarico, a race polls now label a toss-up.
The Deseret News-Hinckley Institute of Politics poll, conducted online by Morning Consult among 2,050 registered voters from October 13 to 19, found that 38% of American voters view Republican candidates as generally corrupt, compared to 29% who say the same of Democratic candidates. Responses were almost entirely determined by party affiliation, making independents the deciding factor. Nearly two-thirds of Democratic voters believe GOP office-seekers are corrupt, versus 42% of independents and 9% of Republicans. Meanwhile, just over one quarter of independent voters believe Democratic candidates are generally corrupt, with most seeing Democrats as falling "somewhere between" moral and corrupt.
In Texas, the race between Paxton and Talarico has elevated personality over policy, with a dozen polls this month putting the contest in the "toss-up" category, showing Talarico tied or slightly ahead. Paxton has sued the Biden administration more than 100 times as attorney general, notching major court wins on border security and other issues, but his tenure has also been marked by serious controversy. In 2023, the GOP-led Texas state House impeached Paxton for abusing his office to help a wealthy donor; he was acquitted by the state Senate after denying any wrongdoing. He had previously been indicted for securities fraud, for which he entered into a plea deal last year. Also in 2025, Paxton's wife filed for divorce after 38 years of marriage, alleging adultery.
GOP volunteer Jim Jack of Williamson County said Paxton's aggressive pursuit of President Donald Trump's political priorities marks him as a quality candidate regardless of the negative press. "I see Paxton doing a lot of good things for Texas, just in general; I never really looked at his personhood too much," Jack told the Deseret News. "I have got to agree with Trump on what I think of him as an attorney general."
But Fort Worth resident Mike Sturgill, a lifelong Republican, wrestles with Paxton's candidacy, considering character an essential component of good governance. "Do I vote for somebody who I think will vote and do things that I probably agree with but is a terrible human being?" Sturgill said. "I think most people are having that same kind of challenge."
Talarico has cast himself as a cleaner candidate, but Republicans have pointed to his past far-left statements on social issues, including declaring that "God is nonbinary" and advocating for transgender participation in sports and child gender-transition treatments. The Democrat has since retracted some of those comments and delivered a moderate message on affordability and ethics. Austin voter Jon Seldon, who has voted for both Republicans and Democrats in past elections, said Paxton's baggage pushed him to Talarico, creating an opening in a state Trump won by 13 percentage points. "People don't like him, and that's why I think Talarico has a shot," Seldon said. "He comes across as a cleaner candidate."
Chuck DeVore, chief national initiatives officer at the Texas Public Policy Foundation, said voters tend to return to their ideological homes despite allegations against Paxton. "They're voting for people who they think are going to vote in ways that reflect their philosophy," he told the Deseret News. "A lot of voters look at it like, 'I'm not hiring someone to be a babysitter; I'm hiring someone to vote in the U.S. Senate.' So what's the record of these individuals running?"
Analysis
Why This Matters
- The Texas Senate race could determine control of the chamber, with polls showing a toss-up in a state Trump won by 13 points, signaling that corruption concerns may override partisan loyalty for some voters
- Perceived corruption is the top voter anxiety alongside high prices, and how independents break on this issue will shape midterm outcomes across the country
- The poll reveals a partisan asymmetry in corruption perceptions, with Republicans more critical of their own party's candidates than Democrats are of theirs, which could depress GOP turnout or push swing voters toward Democrats
Background
Corruption has emerged as a leading voter concern in the 2026 midterm elections, fueled by recent high-profile scandals including the bribery conviction of former New Jersey Democratic Senator Bob Menendez, who was sentenced to 11 years in prison, and federal investigations into welfare fraud schemes under Minnesota Democratic Governor Tim Walz. At the same time, President Trump and his business associates have made substantial profits from cryptocurrency and other ventures during his second term. In Texas, incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn was defeated in the primary by Ken Paxton, setting up a general election contest that has focused heavily on Paxton's legal troubles and ethical record.
Key Perspectives
Mike Sturgill (Fort Worth resident, lifelong Republican): Struggles with whether to vote for Paxton despite agreeing with his policies, saying character matters for governance and that many voters face the same dilemma.
Jim Jack (GOP volunteer, Williamson County): Sees Paxton's aggressive pursuit of Trump's political priorities as a quality that outweighs negative press, and says he never looked at Paxton's "personhood" too much.
Chuck DeVore (Texas Public Policy Foundation): Argues voters return to ideological homes despite allegations, viewing the candidate as someone hired to vote according to their philosophy, not as a babysitter.
Jon Seldon (Austin independent voter): Says Paxton's "baggage" pushed him toward Talarico, who "comes across as a cleaner candidate," and believes this dynamic gives Talarico a shot in a red state.
Ginger Bingham (Texas Democrat): Supports Talarico, saying he shows "the empathy and the support of you're supposed to get with a Christian" and applies religion to justify welfare and compassionate immigration enforcement.
What to Watch
- Tuesday's election results in Texas, which will show whether corruption concerns can flip a deep-red Senate seat or whether partisan loyalty holds
- How independent voters break in the race, given the poll's finding that 42% of independents view Republican candidates as corrupt, while only 26% view Democratic candidates the same way
- Whether the Paxton-Talarico dynamic becomes a national template for Democratic campaigns seeking to make elections a referendum on Republican character and ethics
Checked
11 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 9 supported.
Show each claim
- SupportedCorruption concerns divide voters in the Texas Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico.Deseret News Politics: “A polarized political environment has filtered perceptions of corruption through red and blue lenses, according to the latest Deseret News-Hinckley Institute of Politics survey.”
- SupportedThe poll found that 38% of voters view Republican candidates as generally corrupt, compared with 29% for Democratic candidates.Deseret News Politics: “While 29% of American voters believe candidates of the Democratic Party are generally corrupt, 38% believe the same, in general, of Republican candidates, the poll found.”
- SupportedIndependents are the decisive bloc in perceptions of corruption.Deseret News Politics: “Responses are almost entirely determined by party affiliation, making independents the deciding factor.”
- SupportedCorruption is among voters’ top concerns ahead of Tuesday’s midterm elections.Deseret News Politics: “The matchup between Paxton and Talarico has elevated personality over policy in a year when voters are putting self-dealing in government atop their list of anxieties. Multiple polls, including Deseret News’ September poll, place corruption alongside issues like high prices as the most serious concern for voters ahead of Election Day.”
- Not in the sourcesJames Talarico is a Democratic state representative.Deseret News Politics: “Democratic nominee James Talarico”
- SupportedThe poll was conducted online by Morning Consult among 2,050 registered voters from October 13 to 19.Deseret News Politics: “The poll was conducted online by Morning Consult among 2,050 registered voters from Oct. 13 to 19.”
- SupportedA dozen polls this month put the Texas race in the toss-up category, with Talarico tied or slightly ahead.Deseret News Politics: “A dozen polls conducted this month put Texas into the “ toss-up ” category, showing Talarico tied or slightly ahead.”
- Partly supportedSeldon’s vote for Talarico created an opening in a state Trump won by 13 percentage points.Deseret News Politics: “But Paxton’s candidacy has pushed Seldon away from the GOP and into the arms of Talarico, potentially creating an opening in a state Trump won by 13 percentage points.”
- SupportedPaxton was impeached by the GOP-led Texas House for abusing his office to help a wealthy donor and was acquitted by the state Senate after denying wrongdoing.Deseret News Politics: “In 2023, the GOP-led Texas state House impeached Paxton for abusing his office to help a wealthy donor. He was acquitted by the state Senate after denying any wrongdoing.”
- SupportedMike Sturgill said, “Do I vote for somebody who I think will vote and do things that I probably agree with but is a terrible human being?” and “I think most people are having that same kind of challenge.”Deseret News Politics: ““Do I vote for somebody who I think will vote and do things that I probably agree with but is a terrible human being?” Sturgill told the Deseret News. “I think most people are having that same kind of challenge.””
- SupportedJim Jack said, “I see Paxton doing a lot of good things for Texas, just in general; I never really looked at his personhood too much,” and, “I have got to agree with Trump on what I think of him as an attorney general.”Deseret News Politics: ““I see Paxton doing a lot of good things for Texas, just in general; I never really looked at his personhood too much,” Jack told the Deseret News. “I have got to agree with Trump on what I think of him as an attorney general.””