Crime rates reach decade highs in Victoria as Labor faces electoral test over law and order

Analysis shows aggravated burglaries, car thefts and assaults at elevated levels in majority of Melbourne council areas as November 28 election looms

By LineZotpaper AI staff

Published25 October 2026

Read Time3 min

Sources3 outlets

Victoria's crime rate has hit a record high in 2025, with more than 60 per cent of Melbourne council areas and over 40 per cent of regional municipalities recording decade-high rates of aggravated burglaries, car thefts and assaults over the past two years, according to an analysis by The Age. The figures come as Labor, in power for 12 years, faces a November 28 election in which law and order is expected to be a decisive factor, with opinion polls showing erosion of the party's primary vote.

Throughout Labor's three terms, crime has been a chronic political problem, with three premiers riding the crime-rate rollercoaster from progressive policies to blunt crackdowns amid escalating voter anxiety. The state's crime rate hit a record high in 2025, coinciding with a decline in the party's primary vote.

Premier Ben Carroll came to power recognising his party's political weakness on crime, even after his predecessor Jacinta Allan changed course on key policies to appear tougher to voters. This has caused discomfort within the party and sparked criticism from researchers who say Labor is locking itself in a 'race to the bottom' with the Liberal Party and One Nation, rather than prioritising evidence-based best practice.

The government has repeatedly adjusted bail laws. After the 2017 Bourke Street attack, in which James Gargasoulas killed six people while on bail, Labor introduced a 'reverse onus test'. The percentage of prisoners on remand rose from 30.9 per cent in 2017 to 44.4 per cent by 2022. The death of Veronica Nelson in custody in 2020 led to a Coroner's inquest that called the bail provisions a 'complete, unmitigated disaster'. The government unwound the laws in 2023.

In March 2025, Allan reversed course again, removing the requirement for judges to treat remand as a last resort and making it a specific crime to commit an indictable offence on bail. This followed a spate of high-profile home invasions and car thefts. The sister of doctor Ashley Gordon, stabbed to death in 2024 after confronting teenagers who had broken into his home including one on bail, said: 'I don't want anyone to feel what we are feeling.'

'Victorians want to feel safe, only Labor will listen and act on what the community wants,' Police Minister Paul Edbrooke said in a statement. Carroll has made a point of saying more people than ever are going to jail. 'It is nonsense that incarceration brings people out worse,' he said this month. 'Incarceration gives them the opportunity to get a trade, get an education and break up their links [to crime].'

However, neither Allan nor Carroll's changes have slowed the Coalition's attack. 'After 12 years of Labor, police numbers are down, crime is up and Victorians are living in fear,' said opposition police and corrections spokesman Brad Battin. 'Being weak on crime is in Labor's DNA, but our Liberal and Nationals team has a comprehensive plan to restore community safety.'

Barrister Greg Barns of the Australian Lawyers Alliance said: 'The government did the right thing and started to unwind those appalling laws, and then of course did a reverse.' Monash University professor Natalia Antolak-Saper said the 2025 laws were 'very disappointing because you now have quite a lot of evidence … that its operation is both discriminatory and problematic.'

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Analysis

Why This Matters

The outcome of the Victorian election could signal whether tough-on-crime policies are politically rewarded, influencing law-and-order platforms in other states.
The ongoing cycle of bail law tightening and loosening highlights the tension between public safety demands and evidence-based justice.
The rising remand population and youth detention numbers raise human rights and fiscal concerns.

Background

Victoria has been governed by Labor for 12 years under three premiers. Crime has been a persistent political vulnerability, with high-profile incidents including the 2017 Bourke Street attack and the 2016 Moomba riot driving public anxiety. The government has repeatedly adjusted bail laws, swinging between strict measures and reforms aimed at reducing over-incarceration. The November 28 election is likely to be a referendum on community safety.

Key Perspectives

Ben Carroll (Premier): says incarceration gives offenders access to trades and education, and that 'it is nonsense that incarceration brings people out worse.'

Brad Battin (Opposition police and corrections spokesman): says 'being weak on crime is in Labor's DNA' and promises a one-strike bail policy if elected.

Greg Barns (Australian Lawyers Alliance): says the government 'did the right thing' unwinding the strict bail laws but then reversed.

Natalia Antolak-Saper (Monash University): says the 2025 laws are 'very disappointing' given evidence that the earlier strict bail regime was 'both discriminatory and problematic.'

What to Watch

Whether the Liberal-National coalition's 'one-strike' bail proposal gains further traction in the campaign.
The next release of prison and remand population data, which will show the impact of the latest bail tightening.
The level of voter turnout in Melbourne's outer suburbs, where crime rates have risen sharply.

Sources

After 12 years, crime may bring Labor undone. How have rising rates affected your suburb? · Brisbane Times
After 12 years, crime may bring Labor undone. How have rising rates affected your suburb? · The Sydney Morning Herald
After 12 years, crime may bring Labor undone. How have rising rates affected your suburb? · WAtoday

Checked

12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 10 supported.

Show each claim

Partly supportedCrime rates reached decade highs across Victoria as Labor faced an electoral test over law and order.Brisbane Times - Latest News: “in more than 60 per cent of Melbourne council areas and more than 40 per cent of regional municipalities, the rates of aggravated burglaries, car thefts and assaults have reached their highest levels in a decade over the past two years.”
SupportedMore than 60 per cent of Melbourne council areas and more than 40 per cent of regional municipalities had decade-high rates of aggravated burglaries, car thefts and assaults over the past two years.Brisbane Times - Latest News: “in more than 60 per cent of Melbourne council areas and more than 40 per cent of regional municipalities, the rates of aggravated burglaries, car thefts and assaults have reached their highest levels in a decade over the past two years.”
SupportedVictoria’s crime rate hit a record high in 2025.Brisbane Times - Latest News: “The state’s crime rate hit a record high in 2025”
Partly supportedOpinion polls showed erosion of Labor’s primary vote.Brisbane Times - Latest News: “The state’s crime rate hit a record high in 2025, coinciding with erosion of the party’s primary vote. If the polls are to be believed, law and order will be a decisive factor”
SupportedThe sister of Ashley Gordon said, “I don’t want anyone to feel what we are feeling.”Brisbane Times - Latest News: “said: “I don’t want anyone to feel what we are feeling.””
SupportedPolice Minister Paul Edbrooke said, “Victorians want to feel safe, only Labor will listen and act on what the community wants.”Brisbane Times - Latest News: ““Victorians want to feel safe – only Labor will listen and act on what the community wants,” Police Minister Paul Edbrooke said in a statement.”
SupportedThe share of prisoners on remand rose from 30.9 per cent in 2017 to 44.4 per cent by 2022.Brisbane Times - Latest News: “The percentage of prisoners on remand went from 30.9 per cent in 2017, to 44.4 per cent by 2022.”
SupportedCoroner Simon McGregor called the bail provisions a “complete, unmitigated disaster.”Brisbane Times - Latest News: “Coroner Simon McGregor labelled the bail provisions a “complete, unmitigated disaster”.”
SupportedGreg Barns said, “The government did the right thing and started to unwind those appalling laws, and then of course did a reverse.”Brisbane Times - Latest News: ““The government did the right thing and started to unwind those appalling laws, and then of course did a reverse,” said barrister and spokesman for the Australian Lawyers Alliance Greg Barns, SC.”
SupportedBen Carroll said, “It is nonsense that incarceration brings people out worse.”Brisbane Times - Latest News: ““It is nonsense that incarceration brings people out worse,” he said this month.”
SupportedBrad Battin said, “After 12 years of Labor, police numbers are down, crime is up and Victorians are living in fear.”Brisbane Times - Latest News: ““After 12 years of Labor, police numbers are down, crime is up and Victorians are living in fear,” said opposition police and corrections spokesman Brad Battin.”
SupportedNatalia Antolak-Saper called the 2025 laws “very disappointing because you now have quite a lot of evidence … that its operation is both discriminatory and problematic.”Brisbane Times - Latest News: ““[It] is very disappointing because you now have quite a lot of evidence … that its operation is both discriminatory and problematic,” she said.”