Voters watching midterm results on Tuesday night should expect the first votes counted to almost certainly look redder than the final result, and final control of the House and Senate could take days to settle, according to an Axios analysis of vote-count data from the past four elections.
Early leads can create false impressions of who is winning and suspicion when those leads vanish, the analysis warns. Election night is really election week.
AP did not call control of the House until seven or eight days after Election Day in each of the past three elections. The Senate was settled by 10:44pm on election night in 2018 and at 12:06am the next morning in 2024. In 2022, it took four days, and in 2020, it was not called until Georgia's January runoffs, two months later.
Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats. Democrats need a net gain of four for a majority.
In every national election since 2018, the House and Senate votes counted by 9pm ET were 4 to 9 percentage points more Republican than the final result, the analysis of AP and Edison Research vote counts found. The pattern is mostly geographic: fast-counting Florida and other right-leaning states report first. At 9pm on election night 2022, Florida accounted for 40% of all Senate votes counted nationwide. By 11pm, more House races had been called for Republicans than Democrats in all four elections, including 2018 and 2020, when Democrats won the House.
The tilt fades slowly. At 6am Wednesday, the national House count was still 2 to 3 points more Republican than the final, largely because California, Washington and Oregon count for days.
Each state tilts its own way, depending on which ballots and which counties it counts first. States that count early and mail ballots first tend to start bluer than they finish. States that count Election Day votes first start redder. Ohio, Nebraska, Texas, Kansas and Iowa start blue. Michigan swings both ways: Elissa Slotkin led Mike Rogers by 13 points at 9pm in 2024, trailed by 3 at midnight and won by less than half a point. Maine starts red and counts slowly.
Alaska is the slowest and starts out redder. In 2020, Sen. Dan Sullivan led by 28 points at 6am ET with 37% counted; he won by 13. Election-night results include Election Day ballots and some early and absentee ballots. The rest are counted in the following days. Rural mail often goes through Anchorage, and weather can slow it, with domestic ballots accepted up to 10 days after Election Day if postmarked on time. If no one wins a majority of first choices, Alaska will run its ranked-choice tally on Nov. 18.
The analysis provides a key timeline (all times ET): 6pm, parts of Indiana and Kentucky close, giving the first House returns; 7pm, polls close in Georgia, South Carolina, most of Florida and New Hampshire; 7:30pm, North Carolina and Ohio close; 8pm, Maine, most of Michigan, Texas and Kansas; 9pm, peak red mirage as Iowa, Minnesota and Nebraska close; 11pm, the West Coast begins reporting, and the early Republican tilt should begin fading; about 1am Wednesday, Alaska’s last polls close.
The bottom line: early leads are not necessarily predictive. The closer the race, the longer voters may have to wait to learn who won.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- The analysis warns that early leads can create false impressions and suspicion, potentially undermining trust in the electoral process if results shift dramatically overnight.
- For voters, knowing that early tallies are skewed by geography rather than fraud may reduce confusion and pressure on election officials.
- The timeline matters for media, campaigns and investors: key races may not be called for days, prolonging uncertainty about control of Congress.
Background
Midterm elections determine control of the House and Senate. In recent cycles, AP has not called the House until a week after Election Day. The phenomenon of an early Republican advantage, known in commentary as a "red mirage", stems from faster-counting rural and right-leaning states reporting before slower urban and coastal ones.
Key Perspectives
Axios analysis: shows that in every national election since 2018, votes counted by 9pm ET were 4–9 points more Republican than the final result, driven by geography rather than fraud.
What to Watch
- The balance of House seats at 9pm ET Tuesday: expect a Republican lead that narrows as West Coast results arrive after 11pm.
- Alaska's final tally, delayed by ranked-choice processing and mail ballot acceptance up to 10 days after Election Day.
- The four key Senate races in Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Nevada: any shift after midnight in those states will signal the likely Senate majority.
Checked
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 12 supported.
Show each claim
- SupportedThe first votes counted Tuesday night will almost certainly look redder than the final result.Axios: “The first votes counted Tuesday night will almost certainly look redder than the final result”
- SupportedControl of the House and Senate could take days to settle.Axios: “control of the House and Senate could take days to settle.”
- SupportedAxios’s analysis warns that early leads can create false impressions about who is winning and suspicion when those leads vanish.Axios: “Why it matters: Early leads can create false impressions of who's winning and suspicion when those leads vanish.”
- SupportedThe phrase “Election night is really election week” appears in the source.Axios: “Election night is really election week.”
- SupportedAP did not call control of the House until seven or eight days after Election Day in each of the past three elections.Axios: “AP didn't call control of the House until seven or eight days after Election Day in each of the past three elections .”
- SupportedIn 2018, the Senate was settled at 10:44pm on election night; in 2024, it was settled at 12:06am the next morning.Axios: “The Senate was settled by 10:44pm on election night in 2018 and at 12:06am the next morning in 2024 .”
- SupportedRepublicans hold 53 Senate seats.Axios: “Republicans hold 53 Senate seats .”
- SupportedDemocrats need a net gain of four Senate seats for a majority.Axios: “Democrats need a net gain of four for a majority.”
- SupportedIn every national election since 2018, House and Senate votes counted by 9pm ET were 4 to 9 percentage points more Republican than the final result, according to an analysis of AP and Edison Research vote counts.Axios: “In every national election since 2018, the House and Senate votes counted by 9pm ET were 4 to 9 percentage points more Republican than the final result, an Axios analysis of AP and Edison Research vote counts found.”
- SupportedAt 9pm on election night 2022, Florida accounted for 40% of all Senate votes counted nationwide.Axios: “At 9pm on election night 2022, Florida accounted for 40% of all Senate votes counted nationwide.”
- SupportedAt 6am Wednesday, the national House count was still 2 to 3 points more Republican than the final result.Axios: “At 6am Wednesday, the national House count was still 2 to 3 points more Republican than the final”
- SupportedElissa Slotkin led Mike Rogers by 13 points at 9pm in 2024, trailed by 3 at midnight, and won by less than half a point.Axios: “Elissa Slotkin led Mike Rogers by 13 points at 9pm in 2024, trailed by 3 at midnight and won by less than half a point.”