Americans vote in midterms after eve-of-poll US strikes on Iran

The Guardian reported that the US reportedly attacked Qeshm Island in southern Iran on Monday, in strikes first reported by the Wall Street Journal. The strikes were defensive in nature, according to officials, and Reuters and the Associated Press reported that they targeted surface-to-air missiles being used against US assets. The Journal also reported that the US has been carrying out smaller-scale strikes on Iran for several weeks without publicly announcing them, unlike at the start of the conflict in February.

Trump played down the prospect of renewed fighting. "We had a war with Iran. We won," he told journalists, adding: "I don't know if you even call it a war because we haven't been doing any fighting for months." Iran has kept up its closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the AP reported that Netanyahu is pushing for another wave of strikes after the midterms, citing two regional officials and a third person familiar with the matter. The two officials said mediators were trying to advance a framework in which Iran would cease its attacks in the strait in return for the US lifting its blockade of Iran's ports.

On the ballot are all 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and governor elections in 36 states. Republicans hold the Senate with 53 seats, against 47 held by Democrats and independents who caucus with them, and Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take it; for the House, the Guardian put the Democratic target at four seats and the ABC at three. The president's party has lost House seats in 18 of the past 20 midterm elections, the Guardian reported, a pattern stretching back to 1946.

The cost of living has been a major campaign issue, and fuel prices have risen partly because of the war. The BBC reported diesel reached a record $6.52 a gallon in September, against $3.75 before the war began in February, and that inflation has risen to 3.7% from 3% when Trump took office. The ABC reported prices at some Detroit stations pushing $US5 a gallon.

Forecasts from Fifty Plus One, which aggregates opinion polls, give Democrats a 99% chance of winning the House and an 80% chance of taking the Senate, the ABC reported. The BBC reported Trump's approval at around 38% in final polls, while an NBC poll released on Sunday indicated only 29% of voters view the Democratic Party positively. Republican National Committee press secretary Natalie Baldassarre said national polls "always under count support for Republicans". Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini told the ABC the environment was "genuinely bad" for his party: "They look weaker this late in a cycle than I can remember." He cautioned that the Senate battleground runs through red states "that the polls have a hard time getting right". Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report said pursuing an unpopular war that drove prices up "has only put his party in more peril".

In a guide published by WHYY, NPR said early results in Indiana's 5th district and Kentucky's 6th, Republican-held seats that became more competitive during the campaign, could be signs of turnout. In Michigan, where Democrat Abdul El-Sayed faces Republican Mike Rogers, Black voters in Wayne County are key to El-Sayed's chances. In Texas, NPR said one test for Democrat James Talarico, who is challenging Attorney General Ken Paxton, is whether the gap between Paxton and Republican governor Greg Abbott's vote totals exceeds 400,000.