The Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights (CHIRLA) submitted a court filing on Saturday showing that more than four in ten names on a list of 'likely non-citizen' voters provided by the Trump administration are not on California's voter rolls, and that thousands of potentially eligible US citizens were incorrectly flagged as ineligible to vote.
The analysis, conducted by two data scientists from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) Voting Rights Project, found that 8,880 of the 20,930 names on the list, 42 percent, did not appear anywhere in California's current voter files. The filing also found that many other names on the list were either confirmed US citizens or may correspond to US citizens.
The Trump administration sent the list to California in early October, suggesting that as many as 20,930 'likely non-citizens' were registered to vote in the state. The list forms the basis of a lawsuit filed on October 15 that calls on California to sequester any ballots sent to those 'likely non-citizens', preventing them from counting in Tuesday's midterm elections.
On Friday, the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco rejected the complaint a second time, ruling it unconstitutional. 'We decline the United States's invitation to contravene the Elections Clause by undermining the Constitution's plain text,' the court majority wrote.
Saturday's filing was co-signed by Xavier Becerra, the Democratic candidate to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom, and states that 'this review proves, at least as a preponderance of the evidence, that demands of election officials under criminal and civil threats, endangers the voting rights of plaintiff CHIRLA's members and clients.'
Other states that received similar lists have also found significant errors. Nevada, for example, found that none of the names on the list it received were non-citizen voters. Such errors have raised concerns that eligible citizens could see their votes denied if the Trump administration wins its California lawsuit. The administration has threatened state officials with prosecution over potential non-citizen voting and continues to pursue the case in federal court.
Trump has expressed fear that if Republicans lose their majorities in Congress in Tuesday's elections, he could be impeached. He has a history of spreading false information about elections, including claims that his 2020 defeat was due to a 'rigged' vote. California, the most populous state and a longtime left-wing stronghold, will elect 52 seats to the House.
Critics, including Gov. Newsom, have pointed to the Elections Clause of the US Constitution, which gives states authority over election administration. All 50 states already prohibit non-citizen voting in federal elections and take measures to prevent voter fraud, which is considered exceedingly rare.
Analysis
Why this Matters
- Thousands of eligible US citizens could be disenfranchised if the Trump administration wins its lawsuit, affecting the outcome of closely contested House races in California.
- The filing undercuts the administration's argument that non-citizen voting is a widespread problem, reinforcing evidence that such fraud is rare.
- The legal battle tests the balance between federal and state authority over election administration under the Elections Clause.
Background
President Donald Trump has repeatedly spread unsubstantiated claims about election fraud, including that the 2020 presidential election was 'rigged.' His administration has sent lists of 'likely non-citizen' voters to several states ahead of the midterm elections. California, a Democratic stronghold, has resisted. The 9th Circuit has twice rejected the administration's lawsuit as unconstitutional. Elections administration is constitutionally left to the states, though Congress may pass regulations.
Key Perspectives
CHIRLA/UCLA data scientists: The list is inaccurate: 42% of names not on voter rolls, and many others are US citizens. The threats to election officials endanger voting rights.
Trump administration: The list identifies likely non-citizen voters; it has threatened state officials with prosecution and continues to pursue its lawsuit.
9th Circuit Court of Appeals: The lawsuit violates the Elections Clause and the Constitution's plain text.
Gov. Gavin Newsom: The Elections Clause gives states authority, rebutting federal intervention.
What to Watch
- Tuesday's midterm elections: will the court order sequestration before votes are counted?
- A potential appeal to the Supreme Court, which could set a precendent on federal power over elections.
- Other states receiving similar lists may release their own findings or file similar challenges.
Checked
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 12 supported.
Show each claim
- SupportedThe filing found that 42% of the Trump administration’s list names were absent from California voter files.Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: “In Saturday’s court filing, the data scientists from UCLA’s Voting Rights Project found that 8,880 names on the list were not listed anywhere in California’s current voter files, a proportion of 42 percent.”
- SupportedThe UCLA analysis found more than 8,800 names absent from California voter files.Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: “found that 8,880 names on the list were not listed anywhere in California’s current voter files”
- SupportedThousands of potentially eligible US citizens were incorrectly identified as ineligible to vote.Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: “It also found that thousands of potentially eligible US citizens were incorrectly identified as ineligible to vote.”
- SupportedThe filing said, “This review proves, at least as a preponderance of the evidence, that demands of election officials under criminal and civil threats, endangers the voting rights of plaintiff CHIRLA’s members and clients.”Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: ““This review proves, at least as a preponderance of the evidence, that demands of election officials under criminal and civil threats, endangers the voting rights of plaintiff CHIRLA’s members and clients,” the filing said.”
- SupportedThe court majority wrote, “We decline the United States’s invitation to contravene the Elections Clause by undermining the Constitution’s plain text.”Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: ““We decline the United States’s invitation to contravene the Elections Clause by undermining the Constitution’s plain text,” the court majority wrote in its ruling.”
- SupportedThe analysis found 8,880 of 20,930 names absent from current California voter files.Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: “found that 8,880 names on the list were not listed anywhere in California’s current voter files, a proportion of 42 percent.”
- SupportedThe list, delivered to California in early October, suggested as many as 20,930 likely non-citizens were registered to vote in the state.Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: “The Trump administration’s list, delivered to California in early October, had suggested that as many as 20,930 “likely non-citizens” were registered on the state’s voter rolls.”
- SupportedThe list formed the basis of an October 15 lawsuit seeking to sequester ballots sent to those likely non-citizens so they would not be counted in Tuesday’s election results.Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: “That list has formed the basis of a lawsuit, filed on October 15, that calls on California to sequester any ballots sent to those “likely non-citizens”, preventing them from being tallied as part of voting results.”
- SupportedOn Friday, the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco rejected the complaint a second time, determining it was unconstitutional.Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: “On Friday, the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco rejected the complaint a second time , determining it unconstitutional.”
- SupportedThe Saturday filing was co-signed by Xavier Becerra, the Democratic candidate to succeed Gavin Newsom as governor.Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: “It was co-signed by the Democratic candidate to succeed Newsom as governor, Xavier Becerra.”
- SupportedNevada found that none of the names on its list were non-citizen voters.Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: “Nevada, for example, found that none of the names included on that list were non-citizen voters.”
- SupportedTrump described his 2020 election defeat as the result of a “rigged” vote.Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: “including that his defeat in the 2020 presidential race was the result of a “rigged” vote.”