A record 7.4 million Texans cast early ballots in the 2026 midterm election, according to preliminary records from the secretary of state’s office. Turnout is about 39 percent, nearly matching the modern-day high set in 2018. The in-person early voting period ended Friday, and mail-in ballots are expected to continue to come in.
With more than 19 million registered voters, up 2.2 percent from the November 2024 presidential election, Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University, said turnout was high. “We’re not going to hit presidential levels, but this is definitely high turnout,” he said. “The question that is still out there is, and this happens every time that we try to interpret early voting numbers: How many votes are actually still out there?”
The election features several closely watched races. State Representative James Talarico, an Austin Democrat, is locked in a tight race with Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton for a U.S. Senate seat, while Democratic state Representative Gina Hinojosa is challenging Republican Governor Greg Abbott, who is running for a historic fourth term.
Turnout data posted Saturday is preliminary and may be incomplete, as counties report at different speeds. Earlier in the week, the early voting rate lagged behind the 2018 election, when U.S. Representative Beto O’Rourke challenged U.S. Senator Ted Cruz and came closer than any Democrat to winning statewide office. Matt Angle, a Democratic strategist, said the last-minute increase likely reflects more Hispanic and Black voters turning out. “That doesn’t mean Democrats are going to win, Republicans are going to lose,” he said. “That’s a big mistake to make those assumptions, but it shows that the structure of the electorate is such that Democrats have a chance to win.”
Preliminary reports showed increasing turnout rates in Texas’ urban cores. The state’s most populous counties, Harris, Dallas and Tarrant, are seeing higher turnout than in previous midterm elections and are also where there are more diverse voters. Angle described urban cores as “areas where Democrats compete better.” He noted that the electorate is typically a little more diverse on Election Day.
By comparison, Texans cast 9 million ballots during early voting in 2024, reaching a 49 percent turnout rate among registered voters at the time; 5.5 million voted early in the 2022 midterm, a 31 percent turnout rate among registered voters then; and 9.7 million people cast a ballot in 2020, when 57 percent of registered voters did so. Election Day is Tuesday.
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Early voting totals in Texas by election year
million ballots
2026 data is preliminary Source: Texas Secretary of State's office via Texas Tribune
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Analysis
Why This Matters
Near-record early turnout signals intense voter engagement in a midterm year, which could shape the outcome of a tightly contested U.S. Senate race and a historic gubernatorial bid.
The increase in registered voters and last-minute surge among diverse populations may give Democrats a competitive edge in urban and suburban strongholds, though both parties caution against reading early data as predictive.
The data provide an early measure of political mobilization ahead of Election Day, with remaining mail-in ballots and Tuesday’s in-person vote still to be counted.
Background
The 2026 midterm election in Texas features a high-profile U.S. Senate contest between Democratic state Representative James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, as well as Governor Greg Abbott’s campaign for an unprecedented fourth term against Democrat Gina Hinojosa. Previous midterm records were set in 2018, when Beto O’Rourke’s Senate challenge drew 9.7 million total voters and a 46 percent turnout rate, the highest for a midterm in Texas since 1990.
Key Perspectives
Mark Jones (political science professor, Rice University): Called the early turnout “definitely high” but cautioned that it is uncertain how many eligible voters remain, noting that interpretation of early voting numbers is always difficult.
Matt Angle (Democratic strategist): Said the late surge likely indicates more Hispanic and Black voters are participating, which improves Democratic chances without guaranteeing victory. He emphasized that urban cores with diverse populations are seeing higher turnout.
What to Watch
Election Day turnout on Tuesday, November 3, and whether it aligns with typical midterm patterns of growing diversity in the electorate.
Final certified early-vote tallies from all 254 counties, which may shift the reported 39 percent turnout rate.
The volume and partisan lean of mail-in ballots still being processed, which could affect margins in close races.
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 12 supported.
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SupportedMore than 7.4 million Texans voted early in the 2026 midterm election.Texas Tribune: “More than 7.4 million Texans voted early in 2026 election”
SupportedThe early-vote total nearly matched the 2018 pace.Texas Tribune: “That puts turnout at about 39%, nearly matching the modern-day highwater mark for a midterm election set in 2018.”
SupportedPreliminary turnout was about 39%, approaching the 2018 midterm high-water mark.Texas Tribune: “That puts turnout at about 39%, nearly matching the modern-day highwater mark for a midterm election set in 2018.”
SupportedThe in-person early-voting period ended Friday.Texas Tribune: “The in-person early voting period ended Friday.”
SupportedMail-in ballots are expected to continue to come in.Texas Tribune: “And mail-in ballots are expected to continue to come in.”
SupportedMark Jones said, “We’re not going to hit presidential levels, but this is definitely high turnout.”Texas Tribune: ““We’re not going to hit presidential levels, but this is definitely high turnout,” said Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University.”
SupportedMark Jones said, “The question that is still out there is, and this happens every time that we try to interpret early voting numbers: How many votes are actually still out there?”Texas Tribune: ““The question that is still out there is, and this happens every time that we try to interpret early voting numbers: How many votes are actually still out there?””
SupportedMore than 19 million Texans are registered to vote, up 2.2% from the November 2024 presidential election.Texas Tribune: “More than 19 million Texans are registered to vote, up 2.2% from the November 2024 presidential election.”
SupportedJames Talarico is in a tight U.S. Senate race with Ken Paxton.Texas Tribune: “State Rep. James Talarico , an Austin Democrat, and Attorney General Ken Paxton , a McKinney Republican, are locked in a tight race for a U.S. Senate seat.”
SupportedGina Hinojosa is challenging Greg Abbott, who is running for a historic fourth term.Texas Tribune: “And state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, an Austin Democrat, is challenging Republican Gov. Greg Abbott , who is running for a historic fourth term.”
SupportedMatt Angle said the last-minute increase likely reflects more Hispanic and Black voters turning out.Texas Tribune: “Matt Angle, a Democratic strategist, said the last-minute surge in voters likely means that more Hispanics and Black people are voting.”
SupportedElection Day is Tuesday.Texas Tribune: “Election Day is Tuesday.”