Former ADF Officer Calls for Australia to Scrap AUKUS Subs, Shift to Undersea Drones

In a stark break from bipartisan support for the AUKUS trilateral security partnership, a former senior Australian Defence Force officer has called for a fundamental rethink of the nation's maritime strategy. Speaking to the Financial Review, the officer—whose identity has not been disclosed in the report—argues that the massive expenditure on nuclear-powered submarines is misaligned with the evolving nature of conflict beneath the waves.

"The $368 billion price tag is predicated on a Cold War-era understanding of submarine warfare," the officer said. "But the battlefield has shifted. Undersea drones are cheaper, more adaptable, and can be deployed in swarms. Australia has a real competitive advantage in this space, but we're ignoring it."

The comments come as the Albanese government reaffirms its commitment to the AUKUS pact, which was announced in 2021 and involves Australia acquiring nuclear-powered submarines from the United States and United Kingdom. The deal is seen as a cornerstone of Australia's defence strategy amid China's growing naval presence in the Indo-Pacific.

Proponents of AUKUS argue that nuclear-powered submarines offer unparalleled stealth, endurance, and strike capability. They dismiss undersea drones as supplementary rather than a replacement. Defence Minister Richard Marles has previously stated that emerging technologies, including autonomous systems, are being considered alongside the submarine program.

However, critics point to rising costs and delays. The AUKUS submarine fleet is not expected to be fully operational until the 2040s, leaving a potential capability gap. The former officer suggests that an accelerated drone program could fill this void more quickly and at a fraction of the cost.

"An undersea drone fleet could be operational within years, not decades," the officer added. "They can perform surveillance, mine-laying, and even offensive strikes without risking human lives. The technology is mature, and Australia has the expertise to lead."

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) has called for a balanced approach, noting that "autonomous systems are complementary to, not substitutes for, nuclear submarines." Others warn that pivoting away from AUKUS could strain relations with Washington and London.

The government has not formally responded to the officer's remarks, but a Defence spokesperson reiterated that "AUKUS remains the cornerstone of Australia's long-term strategic capability." The debate is likely to intensify as the next round of budget negotiations approaches.

Why This Matters

The AUKUS submarine program is the largest defence investment in Australian history, and a shift to drones would have profound implications for military posture, budget allocation, and alliance dynamics.
If the officer's critique gains traction, it could spark a broader public debate about whether the government is spending wisely on a platform that may be obsolete before it's fully deployed.
The outcome will affect Australia's ability to deter China in the South China Sea and protect sea lanes, with potential ripple effects for regional security.

Background

The AUKUS pact, announced in September 2021 by Australia, the UK, and the US, was designed to counter China's expanding naval power. It includes plans for Australia to acquire eight nuclear-powered submarines, with the first expected in the early 2030s and full fleet by the 2050s. The total cost has been estimated at $368 billion over 30 years. Undersea drone technology has advanced rapidly, with navies worldwide experimenting with large autonomous underwater vehicles (L-AUVs) for reconnaissance and combat roles. Australia has invested in projects like the Ghost Shark (a large autonomous submarine) but has not prioritized them over crewed submarines.

Key Perspectives

Former ADF officer: Argues that the AUKUS submarine deal is a Cold War relic that ignores the drone revolution. Believes Australia can leverage its engineering and tech sector to become a leader in undersea autonomous systems, delivering cheaper, faster, more flexible capabilities.

Australian Government (Defence Department, Coalition and Labor): Maintains that nuclear submarines offer unmatched strategic deterrence and that drones are complementary. Sees AUKUS as essential for alliance cohesion and technological transfer from the US and UK. Any major shift would be politically difficult and diplomatically costly.

Critics and Skeptics: Defence analysts like those at ASPI warn that abandoning the submarine program would leave a dangerous capability gap and undermine trust with allies. Others question the technical readiness of large-scale drone swarms and argue that submarines still have unique advantages in stealth and endurance. Budget hawks, however, say the cost is unsustainable and that drones offer a viable alternative.

What to Watch

The Australian government's response to the officer's call, particularly any signals from Defence Minister Marles or Prime Minister Albanese.
Upcoming defence budget reviews and the next Defence Strategic Update, due in 2028, which could formally assess the role of autonomous systems.
Progress of the Ghost Shark project or any new contracts for undersea drones; a major investment would indicate a pivot.
Public opinion polls on AUKUS spending and whether the cost-benefit analysis shifts as drone technology matures.

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