Analysts have shifted predictions further toward Democratic victories as Election Day approaches, while recent polls show close contests or Democratic leads in Pennsylvania’s four congressional races. The races are part of the battle for control of the U.S. House.
Pennsylvania has four competitive House seats where Democrats see a realistic chance of flipping, more than any other state. The contests, in the 1st, 7th, 8th and 10th Congressional Districts, are testing whether Republican incumbents can withstand a strong Democratic wave.
In the 1st District, Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, a five-term incumbent with a reputation for independence, is locked in a dead heat with Democrat Bob Harvie. A recent poll put Harvie at 48% and Fitzpatrick at 46%, within the margin of error. Cook Political Report recently shifted its rating from “likely Republican” to “leans Republican,” while Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the race from “leans Republican” to “toss up.” Fitzpatrick has a significant fundraising advantage. “You read this stuff and you say, ‘Oh, he’s moderate and he does this,’ but then you look at how he votes and whenever the Republicans need him, he votes with them,” said Bucks County resident Jean Barrell.
In the 7th District (Lehigh Valley), Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, who flipped the seat in 2024, is trailing Democrat Bob Brooks, a firefighter and union president, by 5 points in a recent poll. The race is rated a toss-up by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Brooks has emphasized wages and health care, while Mackenzie has attacked him over a lawsuit filed by his mother. The lawsuit has been settled, and Brooks sent cease-and-desist letters over attack ads.
In the 8th District, Republican Rep. Rob Bresnahan is defending his Lackawanna County seat against Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti. A recent poll showed Cognetti leading 51% to 46%. Bresnahan has faced criticism over stock trades that critics allege were made with the benefit of insider trading and related to bills he voted on, though he has denied wrongdoing and sponsored legislation to limit congressional trading. “The guy’s a citizen. They should be allowed the same opportunities that everybody else has,” said Wilkes-Barre resident Joel Bizub.
In the 10th District, Republican Rep. Scott Perry faces a rematch against Democrat Janelle Stelson. The race is rated “lean Democrat” by Cook and Sabato. Recent polling shows the two tied at 48%. Perry has maintained close alignment with President Trump, while Stelson has attacked his Medicaid vote and called for reversing Trump’s tariffs. “We do not need a member of Congress that is that closely tied under the strings of Donald Trump,” said former Pennsylvania Attorney General Walter Cohen.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- Control of the U.S. House could hinge on these four Pennsylvania seats, where analysts have recently shifted ratings toward Democrats.
- The outcomes will test whether Republican incumbents can survive strong political headwinds and whether Democratic turnout can overcome GOP registration advantages.
- Issues like health care, tariffs, and congressional ethics are being put to the test in these closely watched contests.
Background
Pennsylvania has emerged as a key battleground in the 2026 midterm elections, with four competitive House seats where Democrats see a realistic path to victory. The incumbents, Brian Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mackenzie, Rob Bresnahan and Scott Perry, each represent districts that have become Democratic targets, and national parties are spending heavily to influence the outcomes. Democrats are benefiting from a blue wave that has shifted many races nationwide toward Democratic candidates.
Key Perspectives
- Democrats: Point to strong polling, fundraising advantages in some races, and a political environment that has shifted in their favor as evidence that the seats are winnable.
- Republicans: Highlight incumbents’ records, local issues, and district advantages, while dismissing Democratic momentum as driven by national factors that may not translate in conservative-leaning areas.
- Voters: Express mixed views, with some citing concerns about healthcare and the cost of living, while others remain supportive of incumbents based on constituent service or skepticism about challengers.
What to Watch
- Election Day turnout, particularly in the Philadelphia suburbs and the Lehigh Valley, where Democratic performance will be crucial.
- The impact of accusations against candidates, such as the FBI investigation reference in the 1st District and the stock trading criticism in the 8th District.
- The final public polls in each district, which could further narrow or shift the ratings.
Checked
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 11 supported.
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- SupportedFour Pennsylvania House races have shifted toward Democrats ahead of the fight for House control.WHYY: “4 contested Pa. congressional races shift in Democrats’ favor ahead of Tuesday’s battle for control of U.S. House.”
- Partly supportedAnalysts shifted ratings closer to Democrats in key districts across Pennsylvania.WHYY: “As Election Day inches closer, analysts have shifted their predictions further toward Democratic victories.”
- SupportedRecent polls show close contests or Democratic leads in all four Pennsylvania congressional races.WHYY: “The only public poll in the race puts Harvie at 48% and Fitzpatrick at 46%.”
- SupportedPennsylvania has four seats Democrats believe they can flip, more than any other state.WHYY: “The four Pennsylvania seats Democrats believe they can flip are more than any other state.”
- SupportedJean Barrell said Fitzpatrick votes with Republicans when they need him, despite his moderate image.WHYY: ““You read this stuff and you say, ‘Oh, he’s moderate and he does this,’ but then you look at how he votes and whenever the Republicans need him, he votes with them,” said Bucks County resident Jean Barrell, a Democrat.”
- SupportedThe 1st District poll put Harvie at 48% and Fitzpatrick at 46%.WHYY: “The only public poll in the race puts Harvie at 48% and Fitzpatrick at 46%.”
- SupportedA recent poll showed Brooks leading Mackenzie by 5 points in the 7th District.WHYY: “Mackenzie won by just over 4,000 votes in 2024 with Trump at the top of the ticket and, according to a recent poll, Brooks is 5 points ahead in the race.”
- SupportedA recent poll showed Cognetti leading Bresnahan 51% to 46% in the 8th District.WHYY: “A recent poll shows Cognetti up by 51% to Bresnahan’s 46%, a gap just within the margin of error.”
- SupportedJoel Bizub said Bresnahan should have the same opportunities as other citizens.WHYY: ““The guy’s a citizen. They should be allowed the same opportunities that everybody else has,” he said.”
- SupportedA recent poll found Perry and Stelson tied at 48%.WHYY: “A recent poll found Perry and Stelson tied at 48%.”
- SupportedWalter Cohen said Congress does not need a member so closely tied to Donald Trump.WHYY: ““We do not need a member of Congress that is that closely tied under the strings of Donald Trump,” Cohen told WHYY News.”
- SupportedCritics allege Bresnahan’s stock trades benefited from insider trading and related to bills he voted on.WHYY: “Critics allege the trades were made with the benefit of insider trading and related to bills he voted on, which is all legal.”