Israel's October 27 general election, the first since the October 7, 2023 attacks and the Gaza war that followed, has become a contest fought largely over the war itself. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is campaigning on the promise that only he can secure the country, while far-right allies push positions on Palestinians that were once outside mainstream debate.
With the vote less than three weeks away, Netanyahu told Israelis on September 29 that the country's enemies were plotting an attack before election day, without providing evidence, and pointed to the continuing military campaign in Gaza, where he said troops had killed more than 100 "terrorists" in recent weeks.
Analysts say that link between the war, the election and national security is the core of Netanyahu's re-election pitch, as he faces what polls suggest is a stiff test in the first general vote since the Hamas-led attacks that killed 1,139 people in Israel and set off the Gaza war, in which more than 74,000 Palestinians have been killed, according to the report. His opponents have pointed to his government's failures during the 2023 attacks and the slow release of captives.
Netanyahu was quick to seize on an incident the following day, when a co-pilot attacked the pilot of a Flydubai flight from Dubai to Tel Aviv with an axe in the cockpit, forcing the plane to divert. He cast it as fresh proof that he remains the man for the country's top job.
The war has also accelerated a rightward shift in Israeli politics. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, sanctioned by a number of Western countries, told Israeli outlet Ynet that the army should "go to war" in the occupied West Bank and "do there what we did in Gaza". His electoral ally Moshe Feiglin went further, telling the Jerusalem Post that "the enemy is Gaza, not Hamas", calling for the annexation of the besieged territory after the election. "The baby that will be born tomorrow in Gaza will do exactly the same", he said, in reference to the 2023 attacks.
Palestinian political analyst Ahmed Najar said these are not "stray comments" from marginal figures but an electoral message from power-seeking politicians that portrays Palestinians as "not a people with rights, but a demographic and security problem to be expelled, conquered or destroyed". He warned that the election risks becoming "a competition not over whether Palestinian life should be protected, but over who can promise to erase it most aggressively".
Analysis
Why This Matters
- The October 27 result will set Israeli policy toward Gaza and the West Bank for the next parliamentary term, at a moment when the war has killed more than 74,000 Palestinians, according to the report, and the region remains highly unstable.
- The campaign is normalising hardline positions, with annexation of Gaza and military action in the West Bank now part of the public debate.
- The outcome will affect the prospects for a ceasefire, the release of captives and any broader political settlement.
Background
The war began with the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, which killed 1,139 people in Israel and triggered an Israeli military campaign in the Gaza Strip. More than 74,000 Palestinians have been killed since, according to the figures cited in the report. Israel rejects genocide allegations and says it is acting in self-defence against Hamas. This is the first Israeli general election since the attacks, and Netanyahu's record, including the security failures of that day and the slow release of captives, is squarely in play. The war has also redrawn the political map, shifting debate to the right.
Key Perspectives
Netanyahu and his coalition: The prime minister frames the election as a security choice, presenting himself as the only leader who can protect Israelis, and using events such as the Flydubai cockpit attack as evidence of the threats the country faces.
Far-right allies: Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin are campaigning on far more aggressive positions, urging war in the West Bank, calling Gaza itself "the enemy" and pushing for annexation after the vote.
Opposition: Netanyahu's rivals argue that his government failed on October 7 and in securing the release of captives, and that he does not deserve another term.
Critics and analysts: Palestinian analyst Ahmed Najar warns that the election risks becoming a competition over who can promise to erase Palestinian life most aggressively, with Palestinians treated as a "demographic and security problem" rather than a people with rights.
What to Watch
- Poll movements in the final weeks before the October 27 vote, and whether Netanyahu's security message holds.
- Any security incident before election day, which could shift the contest in the prime minister's favour.
- Whether Smotrich and Feiglin's rhetoric is translated into policy after the vote, particularly on Gaza and the West Bank.
- The reaction of international actors to annexation talk and to the continuing military campaign.