New internal polling commissioned by a Republican group shows Democrat Amy Acton leading Vivek Ramaswamy by eight points in Ohio's governor's race, up from a two-point lead earlier this month before an attack ad featuring her estranged mother began circulating on Oct. 19. The findings have heightened Republican anxiety that Ramaswamy's decision to air the deeply personal ad could backfire.
The private poll, obtained by Axios, was conducted Oct. 23-26 among 800 likely Ohio voters and found Ramaswamy's support had fallen from 45% earlier this month to 42%, while Acton's climbed from 47% to 50%. The survey's margin of error for each candidate's result was plus/minus 3.46 percentage points. A memo attached to the poll states the ad "is having a significant effect on the gubernatorial race."
The ad features Donna Arthur, Acton's estranged mother, who accuses her daughter of lying about her childhood and urges Ohioans not to vote for her. Acton has said she was sexually abused by her stepfather when she was 12 and that her mother sided with her abuser. The stepfather was charged with sexual assault but fled to Pennsylvania, where he died in 2004 as a fugitive. Acton and her brother were removed from their mother's custody, and Acton has said she has not seen her mother since 1978.
Ramaswamy's campaign had treated the ad as a game-changer, committing $4 million to airing it statewide despite warnings from other Republicans. A source close to the campaign said there was internal resistance to running it, with one big exception: "The candidate is the one pushing for it." The same source said, "This was not planned. But Vivek got what he wanted," adding, "I probably wouldn't have run it."
Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine, who worked closely with Acton when she was the state's health director, said airing the ad was wrong and urged Ramaswamy to take it down. President Trump and Vice President Vance backed Ramaswamy, with Vance telling the ad's bipartisan critics to "stop whining." Sen. Jon Husted, who is seeking reelection in a race that could help decide Senate control, has said he would not have run the ad. One GOP operative briefed on polling said, "Vivek's ad put the whole Republican ticket on defense. He better hope Ohio doesn't decide the Senate majority."
Ramaswamy has defended the ad, arguing that Acton has misrepresented her past and avoided addressing substantive issues facing Ohio voters. A Ramaswamy campaign representative declined to comment. A separate Suffolk University poll showed a narrower deficit for Ramaswamy of four points, an improvement over its late September finding that Acton was up by nine.
Trump is scheduled to campaign in Chillicothe, Ohio, with Ramaswamy and Husted on Wednesday evening.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- The poll suggests the attack ad may be shifting the Ohio governor's race in the opposite direction from what Ramaswamy's campaign hoped.
- Ohio's Senate race could help determine control of the Senate, and national Republican operatives worry the backlash could hurt Sen. Jon Husted.
- President Trump's scheduled rally with Ramaswamy and Husted on Wednesday makes the state a focus of national attention.
Background
Ramaswamy, a Republican, and Acton, a Democrat, are competing in Ohio's governor's race. The controversy centers on a campaign ad featuring Acton's estranged mother, who accuses her daughter of lying about her childhood. Acton has described being sexually abused by her stepfather at age 12 and said her mother sided with her abuser. Axios previously reported that Ramaswamy's campaign treated the ad as a potential game-changer and committed $4 million to airing it statewide, despite warnings from some fellow Republicans that it crossed a line.
Key Perspectives
- Vivek Ramaswamy: He has defended the ad, arguing that Acton has misrepresented her past and avoided addressing substantive issues facing Ohio voters.
- Amy Acton: She has said she was sexually abused by her stepfather at age 12, that her mother sided with her abuser, and that she has not seen her mother since 1978.
- Gov. Mike DeWine: Said airing the ad was wrong and urged Ramaswamy to take it down.
- President Trump and Vice President Vance: They backed Ramaswamy, with Vance telling critics of the ad to "stop whining."
- Sen. Jon Husted: Said he would not have run the ad.
- A GOP operative briefed on polling: "Vivek's ad put the whole Republican ticket on defense. He better hope Ohio doesn't decide the Senate majority."
- A source close to the Ramaswamy campaign: Said the candidate was the one pushing for the ad, adding, "This was not planned. But Vivek got what he wanted," and "I probably wouldn't have run it."
What to Watch
- Trump's rally in Chillicothe, Ohio, with Ramaswamy and Husted on Wednesday evening.
- Whether Ramaswamy keeps the ad on the air after the new internal poll.
- Further public polling, including whether Suffolk University's next survey narrows or widens the gap.
Checked
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 12 supported.
Show each claim
- SupportedA GOP poll shows Ramaswamy slipping in Ohio after an ad featuring Acton’s estranged mother began circulating.Axios: “found Acton leading Ramaswamy by eight points — up from a two-point lead in the same poll earlier this month, before the ad began circulating on Oct. 19.”
- SupportedAn internal poll commissioned by a Republican group puts Acton eight points ahead of Ramaswamy.Axios: “The private poll, commissioned by a Republican group and obtained by Axios, found Acton leading Ramaswamy by eight points”
- SupportedRepublicans are anxious that the ad could backfire.Axios: “The poll’s findings underscore Republicans’ anxiety over Ramaswamy’s decision to air the deeply personal attack on Democrat Amy Acton despite warnings from some fellow Republicans that it crossed a line.”
- SupportedThe survey was conducted Oct. 23–26 among 800 likely Ohio voters.Axios: “The Republican group’s internal survey of 800 likely Ohio voters was conducted Oct. 23–26”
- SupportedRamaswamy’s support fell from 45% to 42%, while Acton’s rose from 47% to 50%.Axios: “found Ramaswamy’s support had fallen from 45% earlier this month to 42%, while Acton’s climbed from 47% to 50%.”
- SupportedThe margin of error for each candidate’s result was plus or minus 3.46 percentage points.Axios: “The survey had a margin of error for each candidate’s result of +/- 3.46 percentage points.”
- SupportedThe poll memo said the ad “is having a significant effect on the gubernatorial race.”Axios: “The ad “is having a significant effect on the gubernatorial race,” a memo attached to the poll states.”
- SupportedA source close to the campaign said, “The candidate is the one pushing for it,” and said, “This was not planned. But Vivek got what he wanted” and “I probably wouldn’t have run it.”Axios: ““The candidate is the one pushing for it,” a source close to the campaign said. ... “This was not planned. But Vivek got what he wanted,” according to the source. “I probably wouldn’t have run it.””
- SupportedA GOP operative said, “Vivek’s ad put the whole Republican ticket on defense. He better hope Ohio doesn’t decide the Senate majority.”Axios: ““Vivek’s ad put the whole Republican ticket on defense. He better hope Ohio doesn’t decide the Senate majority,” said a GOP operative who has been briefed on polling in the race.”
- SupportedThe ad features Donna Arthur, who accuses Acton of lying about her childhood and urges Ohioans not to vote for her.Axios: “The ad at the center of the controversy features Donna Arthur, Acton’s estranged mother, who accuses her daughter of lying about her childhood and urges Ohioans not to vote for her.”
- SupportedActon has said she was sexually abused by her stepfather at 12 and that her mother sided with him; her stepfather was charged with sexual assault, fled to Pennsylvania, and died there in 2004 as a fugitive.Axios: “Acton has said she was sexually abused by her stepfather when she was 12 and that her mother sided with her abuser. The stepfather was charged with sexual assault but fled to Pennsylvania, where he died in 2004 as a fugitive.”
- SupportedRamaswamy’s campaign committed $4 million to airing the ad statewide despite warnings from other Republicans.Axios: “Ramaswamy’s campaign treated the ad as a game-changer in the campaign for governor, committing $4 million to airing the commercial statewide despite warnings from other Republicans that it could backfire.”