Japan is expected to surpass China as the world's largest importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG) this year for the first time since 2022, according to analysts at ICIS and Kpler. The consultancies estimate Japanese imports at 62–63 million metric tons and China's at 61–62 million tons, a slight lead for Japan, amid high LNG prices and sufficient Chinese gas storage that analysts say are limiting purchases.
Chinese LNG buyers acted early to build gas stockpiles amid the Iran war. By the end of September, China's underground gas storage was 80% full, according to Rystad Energy analyst Xiong Wei.
China first became the world's biggest LNG importer in 2021 but lost the lead to Japan in 2022 during extended COVID lockdowns. It regained the top spot in 2023 and held it through 2025.
The Strait of Hormuz crisis halted LNG shipments from Qatar and the UAE. LNG prices in Asia have surged to a four-year high as very few cargoes exit the strait and competition with Europe for winter supplies is intensifying. Japan reduced gas-fired generation in favor of coal this summer as LNG prices remained elevated.
Lower Chinese demand for spot supply could bring relief to other LNG customers in Asia and Europe struggling with high spot prices and intensified competition for supply that does not need to transit the Strait of Hormuz.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- The change in LNG import rankings highlights how the Strait of Hormuz crisis is reshaping global energy trade, with China's stockpiling insulating it from spot market volatility.
- Reduced demand from China for spot cargoes could lower competition and prices for other Asian and European importers this winter.
- Japan's increased reliance on coal underscores the difficult choices energy-importing nations face when a key transit chokepoint is disrupted.
Background
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical passage for LNG exports from Qatar and the UAE. The Iran war has severely restricted shipping through the strait, cutting supply to Asia and Europe. China, anticipating shortages, built underground storage early. Japan, lacking similar capacity, reduced LNG consumption by switching to coal. The result is a very narrow shift in import rankings, with the two countries separated by only one million tons.
What to Watch
- How quickly China draws down its gas storage over the winter; if levels drop significantly, spot purchases may resume.
- Any progress toward de-escalation in the Iran war that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease the supply crunch.
- Whether Japan's coal substitution becomes a longer-term strategy or only a seasonal adjustment.
Checked
11 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 11 supported.
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- SupportedJapan is expected to overtake China as the world’s largest LNG importer this year.Oilprice.com: “Japan is expected to overtake China as the world’s largest importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG) this year”
- SupportedThis would be the first time Japan has led China since 2022.Oilprice.com: “for the first time since 2022”
- SupportedHigh LNG prices and sufficient Chinese storage are limiting purchases.Oilprice.com: “as high LNG prices and sufficient storage in China limit purchases”
- SupportedICIS and Kpler estimate Japanese LNG imports at 62–63 million metric tons and Chinese imports at 61–62 million tons this year.Oilprice.com: “Imports into Japan are estimated at 62 million metric tons, while Chinese imports are expected at 61 million tons this year, according to ICIS. Kpler also sees a small edge of Japan over China in imports this year, at 63 million tons for Japan compared to 62 million tons for China.”
- SupportedChinese LNG buyers acted early to build gas stockpiles amid the Iran war.Oilprice.com: “Chinese LNG buyers acted early to build gas stockpiles amid the Iran war”
- SupportedChina’s underground gas storage was 80% full at the end of September, according to Rystad Energy analyst Xiong Wei.Oilprice.com: “As of the end of September, China’s underground gas storage was 80% full, according to Rystad Energy’s analyst Xiong Wei.”
- SupportedChina became the world’s biggest LNG importer in 2021, Japan took the lead in 2022, and China regained it in 2023 and held it through 2025.Oilprice.com: “China became the world’s biggest LNG importer in 2021, but the extended Chinese restrictions during two years of COVID-related lockdowns in the country pushed Japan to the top spot again in 2022. China then regained the top importer status in 2023, and this extended into 2025.”
- SupportedThe Strait of Hormuz crisis halted LNG shipments out of Qatar and the UAE.Oilprice.com: “the Strait of Hormuz crisis, which halted LNG shipments out of Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)”
- SupportedAsian LNG prices surged to a four-year high as few cargoes exited the Strait of Hormuz and competition with Europe for winter supply intensified.Oilprice.com: “LNG prices surged in Asia to a four-year high as very few cargoes manage to exit the Strait of Hormuz while competition with Europe for winter supply is intensifying.”
- SupportedJapan reduced gas-fired generation in favor of coal this summer while LNG prices remained elevated.Oilprice.com: “Japan, for its part, this summer reduced gas-fired generation in favor of coal as the price of liquefied natural gas remained elevated.”
- SupportedLower Chinese demand for spot supply could bring relief to LNG customers in Asia and Europe facing high spot prices and intensified competition for supply that does not need to transit the Strait of Hormuz.Oilprice.com: “Lower demand for spot supply from China this winter could mean relief for other LNG customers in Asia and Europe, many of which have been struggling with high spot LNG prices and intensified competition for supply that doesn’t need to transit the Strait of Hormuz.”