The Philippines' push to finalize a long-stalled Code of Conduct for the South China Sea during its ASEAN chairmanship faces a fresh obstacle, with a Western source saying Laos is being leaned on by China to scuttle the agreement. The revelation comes weeks before the 49th ASEAN Summit in Manila.
Throughout its year as ASEAN chair, the Philippines has sought to push the China-ASEAN Code of Conduct (CoC) for the South China Sea to the top of the regional agenda. The CoC is part of a two-decade quest to find peaceful resolutions to maritime disputes that affect a waterway accounting for almost a quarter of world trade.
A CoC would allow ASEAN to negotiate with China as a united bloc. But China has long preferred bilateral negotiations, which allow it to reject international rulings such as the 2016 arbitral award. Beijing has historically used proxies within ASEAN to obstruct the process; Cambodia was notably effective in blocking a joint communique at the 2012 ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting.
According to a Western source privy to recent CoC negotiations, Cambodia no longer has the appetite to play that role, being overwhelmed by organized crime issues and a conflict with Thailand. That leaves Laos as the only ASEAN member China can lean on, the source said. Laos and China recently opened a Military Joint Support and Training base north of Vientiane and held joint exercises in September.
The source said: "Laos has been tapped by China and will have to defend its interests, and it's the only country in ASEAN that Beijing can lean on, and it has been doing precisely that. Laos is going to shatter the Philippine dream of using the chair to pass the Code of Conduct. It's as simple as that."
Philippine Foreign Secretary Maria Theresa Lazaro has demanded respect for international law while handling heated diplomatic tensions as ASEAN chair.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- The Code of Conduct would give ASEAN a united negotiating position against China on disputed waters that see a quarter of global trade.
- Failure to pass it would leave individual states to face China in bilateral talks, a dynamic that favors Beijing.
- The 49th ASEAN Summit on November 16-18 in Manila is a critical deadline for the Philippine chairmanship's ambition.
Background
Negotiations for a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea have dragged on for more than two decades. The Philippines, under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., made the CoC a centrepiece of its ASEAN chairmanship. However, China has historically used member states to stall progress. Cambodia was the most reliable blocker, famously scuttling a joint communique in 2012. With Cambodia now seen as unwilling to repeat that role, attention has turned to Laos, which has deepened military and economic dependence on China.
Key Perspectives
Philippines: Has aggressively pushed the CoC to the top of ASEAN's agenda, demanding respect for international law. China: Publicly maintains a policy of non-interference and sometimes advocates resolving maritime issues through ASEAN, but is reported to have used proxies to obstruct the CoC. Cambodia: Previously blocked the CoC but now lacks appetite to do so, according to a Western source. Laos: According to the same source, has been tapped by China and will scuttle the Philippine-led effort.
What to Watch
- The 49th ASEAN Summit in Manila, November 16-18, where the CoC is expected to be debated.
- Whether Laos exercises a veto or blocks consensus on the text.
- Potential shifts in Myanmar's status or Timor-Leste's alignment as alternative Chinese proxies.
Checked
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 11 supported.
Show each claim
- SupportedLaos is poised to thwart the ASEAN South China Sea Code of Conduct, according to a Western source.The Diplomat: ““Laos is going to shatter the Philippine dream of using the chair to pass the Code of Conduct. It’s as simple as that.””
- SupportedThe Philippines’ push for a unified ASEAN stance faces potential obstruction from Vientiane.The Diplomat: “A CoC would enable ASEAN to negotiate with China as a united entity”
- SupportedThe Philippines has pushed to finalize the long-stalled Code of Conduct during its ASEAN chairmanship.The Diplomat: “Throughout its year as chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the Philippines has aggressively sought to push the China-ASEAN Code of Conduct (CoC) for the South China Sea to the top of the regional agenda and end the long and drawn out diplomatic saga”
- SupportedA Western source said China is leaning on Laos to scuttle the agreement.The Diplomat: “Laos has been tapped by China and will have to defend its interests, and it’s the only country in ASEAN that Beijing can lean on, and it has been doing precisely that.”
- SupportedThe 49th ASEAN Summit in Manila is weeks away.The Diplomat: “ahead of the 49th ASEAN Summit, to be held in Manila on November 16–18”
- SupportedThe effort to find peaceful resolutions to the maritime disputes has lasted more than two decades.The Diplomat: “the long and drawn out diplomatic saga, which dates back more than two decades”
- SupportedThe South China Sea waterway accounts for almost a quarter of world trade.The Diplomat: “a waterway that accounts for almost a quarter of world trade”
- SupportedA Code of Conduct would let ASEAN negotiate with China as a united bloc.The Diplomat: “A CoC would enable ASEAN to negotiate with China as a united entity”
- SupportedCambodia no longer has the appetite to obstruct the process, with organized crime and the conflict with Thailand weighing on it.The Diplomat: ““It’s overwhelmed by the mess created by organized crime, the scam compounds and the conflict with Thailand.””
- Partly supportedChina and Laos recently opened a Military Joint Support and Training base north of Vientiane.The Diplomat: “Late last month, China and Laos announced the opening of a Military Joint Support and Training base north of Vientiane”
- SupportedLaos and China held joint exercises in September.The Diplomat: “Joint military exercises known as “Peace Train 2026” were held in September.”
- SupportedThe story’s direct quote about Laos being tapped by China and shattering the Philippine dream was said by a Western source privy to CoC negotiations.The Diplomat: ““Cambodia does not have the appetite for this,” said a Western source privy to CoC negotiations between ASEAN states over the last 12 months. “It’s overwhelmed by the mess created by organized crime, the scam compounds and the conflict with Thailand. Phnom Penh is now moving closer to the United States and it just can’t deal with any more pressure. Myanmar, not yet; Timor-Leste, watch this space. “Laos? Laos has been tapped by China and will have to defend its interests, and it’s the only country in ASEAN that Beijing can lean on, and it has been doing precisely that. Laos is going to shatter ”