Migration targets diverge sharply as One Nation, Coalition and Labor gear up for election battle

With the next federal election on the horizon, net overseas migration has become a key point of difference between Australia's main political forces. According to a report by Phillip Coorey in the Financial Review, One Nation, the Coalition and Labor are each developing targets that are expected to vary widely, though specific figures have yet to be formally released.

One Nation has traditionally advocated for sharply reducing migration, arguing that high intake levels strain housing, public services and the environment. The party is expected to push for a net migration target well below pre-pandemic levels, potentially in the tens of thousands.

The Coalition, while historically more moderate on immigration, has in recent years shifted toward tighter caps amid concerns about housing affordability and rental shortages. Its target is likely to be lower than the post-COVID surge but above One Nation's proposal, perhaps in the range of 160,000 to 200,000 per year.

Labor, which has governed since 2022, has generally supported higher migration to address skills shortages and boost economic growth. The government's current planning figure is around 235,000 annually, but some analysts expect the party to defend a similar or slightly reduced number in its election platform.

The starkly different positions reflect broader ideological divides: One Nation frames immigration as a burden on Australian society; the Coalition emphasises managing population growth to ease cost-of-living pressures; and Labor prioritises economic needs and multiculturalism. With housing affordability already a top concern for voters, the debate is likely to intensify as the election approaches.

Critics argue that political point-scoring on migration risks oversimplifying a complex policy area. Business groups warn that overly restrictive caps could exacerbate labour shortages in key sectors such as aged care, hospitality and construction. Conversely, community and environmental organisations caution that rapid population growth without adequate infrastructure planning could degrade quality of life.

As the parties finalise their platforms, the migration targets will be closely watched by economists, industry bodies and community groups. The election outcome could reset Australia's demographic trajectory for years to come.

Why This Matters

The migration targets will directly affect housing demand, rental markets and infrastructure funding in major cities and regional areas.
The election outcome could determine whether Australia's population growth slows significantly or continues near post-pandemic levels, influencing labour supply and economic output.
Voters will face a clear choice about the size and composition of future migration, making this a central issue in campaign debates.

Background

Australia's net overseas migration surged after COVID-19 border closures ended, hitting around 528,000 in 2022-23 before being gradually tightened. The government and Reserve Bank have noted that rapid population growth has contributed to rental shortages and housing price pressures. In response, the Labor government announced a Migration Strategy in late 2023 that aimed to reduce net migration to around 260,000 by 2025-26, but actual figures have remained above forecasts. The Coalition, under Peter Dutton, has promised to cut the permanent migration program and place tougher caps on international students. One Nation, led by Pauline Hanson, has long campaigned for a moratorium on immigration except for skilled workers in critical shortages. This election marks the first time in years that all three parties are offering clearly differentiated targets rather than tinkering with settings.

Key Perspectives

One Nation: Advocates for the lowest net migration target, arguing that reduced intake is necessary to alleviate housing stress, protect wages and preserve Australian culture. The party frames high migration as a handbrake on quality of life for ordinary Australians. The Coalition: Seeks a middle ground, proposing to moderate migration through tighter visa rules and caps on students while still allowing enough skilled workers to support economic needs. The party emphasises that lower migration will help ease housing affordability. Labor: Defends a higher target, arguing that skilled migration is vital to fill labour shortages, support an ageing population and drive innovation. The government also points to its investments in social housing and infrastructure as complementary measures. Critics: Economists and think tanks warn that setting arbitrary numerical targets without considering infrastructure capacity, regional settlement strategies and labour market needs could lead to unintended consequences. Business groups caution against cutting migration too aggressively, while environmental groups argue even current levels are unsustainable without major policy reform.

What to Watch

The specific numerical targets each party formally adopts in their election platforms, expected before the writ is issued.
Costings from the Parliamentary Budget Office or independent modelling on the fiscal and economic impacts of different migration levels.
Campaign reaction from key interest groups such as the Property Council, unions and migrant community organisations.
Any policy trade-offs parties announce, such as increased housing construction commitments or changes to the skilled occupation list.

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