Novo's CagriSema delivers 25% weight loss in women, raising hopes for menopause market

New analysis shows the next-generation obesity drug outperforms earlier trial results among women, with significant effects across menopause stages.

By LineZotpaper

Published20 October 2026

Read Time2 min

Sources2 outlets

Novo Nordisk on Tuesday reported that its experimental obesity drug CagriSema produced an average 25% weight loss in adult women in a post-trial analysis, offering fresh evidence that the combination of semaglutide and cagrilintide may provide a powerful tool for weight management, particularly during menopause.

The analysis, drawn from a late-stage trial of roughly 2,300 women with obesity or overweight, found that those who stayed on CagriSema for 68 weeks lost an average of 25% of their weight, compared with 3% in the placebo group. A separate breakdown by menopausal stage showed weight loss of 26.7% for premenopausal women, 24.8% for perimenopausal women, and 23.1% for postmenopausal women. In both scenarios, the results assumed all patients adhered to the regimen without interruption. Novo also said that CagriSema was linked to reductions in abdominal fat across all groups.

The findings suggest that women may experience slightly more weight loss on CagriSema than the broader trial population of both men and women, which earlier this year showed an average of 22.7% weight loss. The drug, which combines Novo's blockbuster semaglutide (the active ingredient in Wegovy and Ozempic) with cagrilintide, a compound targeting the amylin pathway involved in appetite regulation, is expected to launch early next year.

Weight gain is a common challenge during menopause, driven by declining estrogen that slows metabolism and reduces muscle mass. More than 86 million women in the United States are aged 40 and older, covering the years when perimenopause, menopause and postmenopause typically occur. Novo's interim head of clinical development, Michelle Skinner Moore, said in a statement that it is important to explore investigational products such as CagriSema across the reproductive lifespan because many women with obesity or overweight experience weight gain as they move through menopause.

Despite the positive data, Wall Street has remained cautious. The drug's previous late-stage trial results disappointed some investors, who had expected higher weight-loss figures. Novo nevertheless insists CagriSema is differentiated enough from its existing drugs to attract significant demand. Analysts polled by FactSet project that CagriSema will generate $11.84 billion in obesity-specific sales by 2028.

Analysis

Why This Matters

The analysis zeroes in on a population, women in menopause, for whom weight gain is a well-documented and often stubborn health challenge, and could open a large new market for obesity treatments.
If confirmed, CagriSema's combination of semaglutide and an amylin-targeting drug could offer a new weapon against obesity beyond existing GLP-1s, especially for patients who have plateaued on current therapies.
The contrasting reactions between Novo's confidence and Wall Street's skepticism highlight the intense financial stakes around next-generation weight-loss drugs, where market expectations are extremely high.

Background

Obesity drugs have become a blockbuster category for Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, with GLP-1-based treatments like Wegovy and Ozempic generating billions. Both companies are developing successors that add new mechanisms to enhance efficacy and address side effects. CagriSema pairs semaglutide with cagrilintide, which targets the amylin pathway, a hormone produced alongside insulin that helps regulate hunger and fullness. Menopause-related weight gain is driven by hormonal shifts that slow metabolism and promote fat storage, making it a particularly relevant use case for weight-loss drugs.

Key Perspectives

Novo Nordisk: The company views CagriSema as a differentiated and effective treatment, particularly for women navigating menopause, and plans a launch in early 2027. The new analysis reinforces its belief that the drug can improve upon semaglutide alone. Investors and Wall Street: Many investors were underwhelmed by initial phase 3 results, which showed 22.7% weight loss, below some aspirational targets, and have not fully embraced CagriSema's prospects. Consensus sales forecasts of $11.84 billion by 2028 suggest significant demand, but the stock market reaction has been muted. Women's health advocates: The detailed breakdown by menopausal stage provides much-needed data on how obesity drugs affect women at different life stages, potentially leading to more tailored treatment options.

What to Watch

Novo's full regulatory filing for CagriSema and any further analyses that confirm or challenge the weight-loss durability observed in women.
Launch timing: Novo expects the drug to reach the market early next year, which will determine how quickly it can capture share from existing GLP-1s.
Competitive response from Eli Lilly and other players developing amylin-based or triple-agonist drugs, which could escalate the obesity-treatment arms race.

Sources

Novo's next-generation obesity drug shows 25% weight loss in women in late-stage analysis · Business News
Novo's next-generation obesity drug shows 25% weight loss in women in late-stage analysis · US Top News and Analysis

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12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 5 supported.

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Partly supportedCagriSema delivers 25% weight loss in women.Business News: “In an analysis of roughly 2,300 women with obesity or who are overweight, CagriSema caused 25% weight loss on average at 68 weeks compared with 3% with placebo. The results are based on an ideal scenario in which all patients stayed on treatment without interruptions.”
Not in the sourcesThe findings are raising hopes for a menopause market.Business News: “Obesity drug leaders Novo and Eli Lilly have built new treatments around amylin, which involves a hormone released in the pancreas alongside insulin that helps regulate hunger and fullness, hoping it will give them a new revenue stream beyond existing GLP-1s.”
Partly supportedThe analysis shows CagriSema outperforms earlier trial results among women.Business News: “The results suggest that women may experience slightly more weight loss on CagriSema than a broader population of both men and women with obesity saw in the phase 3 trial.”
Partly supportedThe drug had significant effects across menopause stages.Business News: “A second analysis of around 1,900 women assigned by their menopausal status found that weight loss reached 26.7%, 24.8%, and 23.1% in premenopausal, perimenopausal and postmenopausal women, respectively, at 68 weeks, if all patients remained on the drug.”
SupportedAbout 2,300 women were analyzed, with average weight loss of 25% on CagriSema versus 3% on placebo.Business News: “In an analysis of roughly 2,300 women with obesity or who are overweight, CagriSema caused 25% weight loss on average at 68 weeks compared with 3% with placebo.”
SupportedWeight loss by menopausal stage was 26.7% for premenopausal, 24.8% for perimenopausal and 23.1% for postmenopausal women.Business News: “A second analysis of around 1,900 women assigned by their menopausal status found that weight loss reached 26.7%, 24.8%, and 23.1% in premenopausal, perimenopausal and postmenopausal women, respectively, at 68 weeks, if all patients remained on the drug.”
SupportedThe reported results assumed patients stayed on the drug without interruptions.Business News: “The results are based on an ideal scenario in which all patients stayed on treatment without interruptions.”
SupportedNovo said CagriSema was linked to reductions in abdominal fat across the groups.Business News: “Across both analyses, CagriSema was linked to reductions in abdominal fat, based on waist circumference, among women overall and across menopause stages, Novo added.”
Partly supportedThe earlier trial showed average weight loss of 22.7% earlier this year.Business News: “Initial results from the study showed that CagriSema helped adults lose 22.7% of their weight on average at 68 weeks versus 2.3% in the placebo group.”
Partly supportedMenopause weight gain is driven by declining estrogen, which slows metabolism and reduces muscle mass.Business News: “Declining estrogen levels can contribute to a slowdown in metabolism, making it easier for women to gain weight and harder to maintain muscle mass.”
Partly supportedMichelle Skinner Moore said in a statement that it is important to explore CagriSema across the reproductive lifespan; she is Novo’s interim head of clinical development.Business News: ““Many women with obesity or overweight experience weight gain as they move through menopause, and it is important to explore investigational products such as CagriSema across the reproductive lifespan,” said Michelle Skinner Moore, Novo's interim head of clinical development, medical and regulatory affairs.”
SupportedFactSet analysts project $11.84 billion in obesity-specific sales for CagriSema by 2028.Business News: “Analysts expect CagriSema to generate $11.84 billion in sales for obesity specifically in 2028, according to a consensus estimate compiled by FactSet.”