One Nation surge turns Perth seat of Secret Harbour into three-way contest

Just over a year out from the next Western Australian state election, the seat of Secret Harbour — a fast-growing coastal strip south of Perth — is shaping up as a bellwether for the rising appeal of right-wing populism in the state.

Political commentators point to a confluence of factors driving One Nation’s momentum: discontent with cost-of-living pressures, lingering frustration over pandemic-era border closures, and the perceived failure of major parties to deliver on housing and infrastructure in the outer suburbs.

One Nation’s breakthrough in South Australia, where the party won a lower house seat for the first time in April 2026, has given the organisation a template for replicating success in WA. The party is now actively campaigning in Secret Harbour, a seat held by the Liberal Party but considered marginal.

“Secret Harbour is the kind of electorate where One Nation can really make inroads — working-class families, tradies, people who feel left behind by the major parties,” said Hamish Hastie, a political reporter who has been tracking the trend.

Labor holds the surrounding federal division of Brand by a narrow margin, but has not yet publicly acknowledged the threat in Secret Harbour, which is a state seat. The Liberal Party, which currently holds the seat, is facing a challenge from its right flank as well as from Labor.

While One Nation has historically polled well in WA — particularly in the 2017 state election, when it won three upper house seats — its support has often failed to translate into lower house victories due to preference flows and concentrated major-party voting. However, the SA result suggests those dynamics may be shifting.

“The major parties can no longer assume One Nation preferences will flow back to them,” said political analyst Dr. Sarah Mitchell. “If the party continues to build its ground game, seats like Secret Harbour could fall.”

The WA Electoral Commission has not yet released updated enrolment figures, but anecdotal evidence suggests a surge in new voter registrations in the area, potentially driven by the buzz around the three-way contest.

Both Labor and Liberal strategists are expected to increase their focus on the seat in the coming months, with the state election due in early 2027.

Why This Matters

Direct impact on voters: Residents of Secret Harbour will have a real three-way choice in the next election, potentially changing the local policy focus on cost-of-living, housing, and infrastructure.
Broader significance: A One Nation lower house win in WA would be a major breakthrough for the party nationally, following its SA success, and could reshape federal election dynamics.
What happens next: Expect increased campaign spending and targeted advertising in the seat, along with a likely preference deal between the Liberal Party and One Nation, or a Labor push to secure second preferences.

Background

One Nation has long had a presence in Western Australia, winning three upper house seats in the 2017 state election and securing about 8% of the primary vote. However, the party has never won a lower house seat in the state. The April 2026 South Australian election changed that narrative: One Nation candidate Sarah Game won the seat of Frome, becoming the party’s first lower house MP anywhere in Australia. That victory was built on a strong grassroots campaign and frustration with the major parties over housing and cost-of-living issues — themes that resonate strongly in Perth’s outer suburbs. Secret Harbour, a rapidly growing area with a high proportion of young families and tradespeople, exhibits similar demographic characteristics. The Liberal Party holds the seat with a margin of approximately 5%, but both major parties have seen primary vote erosion in recent polls.

Key Perspectives

One Nation: The party sees Secret Harbour as a prime opportunity to replicate its SA success. It is running a local candidate with deep community ties and focusing on bread-and-butter issues: housing affordability, utility prices, and opposition to renewable energy mandates. The party argues that voters are tired of the “major party duopoly.” Liberal Party: The Liberals are fighting to hold the seat, but face a split on the right. Some strategists want to preference One Nation to keep Labor out; others fear that any deal could legitimise the challenger and cost votes in the centre. The party’s state director has declined to comment on preference strategy. Labor Party: Labor is quietly confident that a three-way contest could split the conservative vote, delivering the seat to them on preferences. However, internal polling reportedly shows Labor’s primary vote also slipping, and the party is wary of being squeezed. Labor has not yet chosen a candidate, but is expected to announce one soon with a focus on local issues.

What to Watch

Next opinion poll: Any state-wide or seat-specific polling showing One Nation’s primary vote in WA above 15% would be a major signal.
Preference deal announcements: The Liberal Party’s decision on how to direct preferences will be critical — any deal with One Nation could trigger internal backlash.
Candidate quality: The calibre of One Nation’s candidate in Secret Harbour. The SA victory was driven by a strong local candidate; a similar figure in WA could be decisive.

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