One Nation thumps Labor to gain WA state seat of Secret Harbour at byelection

With nearly all votes counted, the ABC’s results show One Nation captured 39.1% of the primary vote — a massive increase of 30.6 percentage points since the March 2025 state election. Labor’s primary vote collapsed to 24.4%, down 22.1 points. The Liberals secured 17.3% (down 7.1%), while the Greens polled 7.5% (down 1.3%).

Despite One Nation’s commanding primary vote lead, a surprisingly weak flow of preferences restricted their winning margin after preferences to 57.0–43.0 against Labor. Preferences from Liberal voters favoured Labor by 50.8–49.2 over One Nation, suggesting Liberal supporters who do not preference One Nation ahead of Labor could cost the party seats in future general elections where they would otherwise be expected to win based on primary votes.

Labor’s loss came despite a WA state DemosAU poll, conducted August 6–25 from a sample of 990, that still placed Labor in a clear election-winning position, leading the Liberals by 54–46 after preferences. At the 2025 state election, Labor defeated the Liberals by 57.1–42.9 after preferences and won 46 of the 59 lower house seats.

Analyst Kevin Bonham noted that Secret Harbour and its two predecessor seats of Peel and Warnbro have historically been safe for Labor against the Liberals. The result shows One Nation can win seats from Labor in areas where the Liberals were unlikely to prevail. Secret Harbour overlaps with the federal seat of Canning, held by Liberal Andrew Hastie, whom One Nation has been targeting.

Secret Harbour is characterised by a higher proportion of residents with vocational qualifications rather than university degrees, and low ethnic diversity — demographics where One Nation performs strongly. The result suggests that federally or at state level, Labor has reason to fear One Nation winning traditional working-class seats that would be unlikely to vote for the Coalition parties.

Why This Matters

This byelection result signals a direct threat to Labor in working-class seats that were previously considered safe, potentially reshaping state and federal electoral maps.
It demonstrates that One Nation can win seats from Labor even in areas where the Liberals are not competitive, challenging the traditional two-party system.
The result could influence Labor's policy positioning and campaign strategy ahead of future elections, particularly in suburban and regional seats.

Background

Western Australia's Labor government won a landslide 46 of 59 lower house seats in March 2025, but byelections often see voters punish incumbent governments — especially those with large majorities. Paul Papalia's resignation triggered the Secret Harbour contest, which covers an area on Perth's southern fringe. The seat has long been held by Labor against the Liberals, but One Nation's strong performance here follows a pattern of minor-party gains in areas with lower university education levels and less ethnic diversity. The federal seat of Canning, which overlaps Secret Harbour, is held by Liberal Andrew Hastie and has been targeted by One Nation.

Key Perspectives

One Nation: The party views this result as proof it can compete effectively against Labor in seats where the Liberals are not viable, and will likely intensify its targeting of Canning and similar working-class electorates. Labor: The government retains a comfortable overall lead in state voting intentions according to recent DemosAU polling, but will need to address vulnerability in seats like Secret Harbour where its support collapsed. Liberals: While the Liberals' primary vote dropped, their preference flows did not uniformly back One Nation — suggesting that Liberal voters may not follow party recommendations to put One Nation ahead of Labor, which could cost One Nation seats at general elections.

What to Watch

Whether One Nation can convert this byelection win into a broader general election breakthrough across similar seats in WA and federally.
The preference behaviour of Liberal voters in future contests — if they continue to break for Labor over One Nation, it may limit One Nation's ability to win even when its primary vote surges.
The response from the WA Labor government, including potential policy shifts or increased attention to working-class electorates.

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