A study by forensic psychiatrist Dr Rajan Darjee has found that 43 of an estimated 126 homicides in Victoria in 2024 and 2025, about one in three, were committed by people with psychosis, a fourfold increase from a decade ago when one in 10 homicides were perpetrated by people with psychotic disorders. Experts have described the rise as the result of 'catastrophic failings' in the mental health system and warned that the public 'should not feel safe'.
Data compiled from assessments by nine forensic psychiatrists showed that half of all stranger homicides in Victoria in the same period and two in three intimate partner and family homicides were committed by people with psychosis. About 84 per cent of the offenders had previously received treatment from mental health services, and half were connected with a service at the time of the incident.
Dr Darjee, adjunct professor at Swinburne University's Centre for Behavioural Science, said the finding that 45 people died was 'astounding' and that the majority of deaths were probably preventable if the offenders had received proper treatment. He warned that least restrictive care policies had become 'negligent' and that compulsory treatment, though used reluctantly, is sometimes 'life saving'.
Professor Patrick McGorry, who chaired the expert advisory committee for the Royal Commission into Victoria's Mental Health System, said the data was the result of a 'public policy failure' to build a modern system of care after the state decommissioned its old psychiatric hospitals in the 1990s. He said the royal commission's recommendations had been 'delayed or poorly implemented' and that the public 'should not feel safe' under the current system.
Colmán O'Driscoll, chief executive of Forensicare and adjunct professor at Swinburne, agreed that compulsory treatment orders should be a last resort but warned against 'swing the pendulum too far the other way'. He said violence among people with psychosis should be conceptualised as a complication of illness and that the health system should see its prevention as core work.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- The fourfold increase in homicides by people with psychosis signals a failing mental health system that is leaving both patients and the public at risk.
- Experts say most deaths were preventable, highlighting a gap between policy intent and actual care delivery.
- The findings challenge current approaches to domestic violence prevention and the reluctance to use compulsory treatment orders.
Background
Victoria decommissioned its old psychiatric hospitals in the 1990s, aiming to replace institutional care with community-based services. The Royal Commission into Victoria's Mental Health System, which ran from 2018 to 2021, produced a reform blueprint that experts say has been poorly implemented. Psychosis is a set of symptoms including hallucinations and delusions that can impair a person's sense of reality; while most people with psychotic disorders are not violent, there is a known association between untreated psychosis and violence.
Key Perspectives
Dr Rajan Darjee: says the homicide numbers are 'astounding' and most deaths were probably preventable; he warns least restrictive care policies have become 'negligent' and that compulsory treatment is sometimes 'life saving'.
Professor Patrick McGorry: says the data is a result of a 'public policy failure' and that the royal commission's recommendations have been delayed or poorly implemented; he argues 'the public should not feel safe' with the current mental health system.
Colmán O'Driscoll: agrees compulsory treatment should be a last resort but warns against swinging too far; he says violence among people with psychosis should be seen as a complication of illness and the health system must make prevention core to its work.
What to Watch
- Whether the Victorian government accelerates implementation of royal commission recommendations, including investment in sustained treatment programs.
- If the trend of short-term admissions for psychosis patients continues, as experts say longer stays are generally needed to stabilise patients.
- Future policy changes around compulsory treatment orders, especially if the system seeks a better balance between least restrictive care and compulsory care when needed.
- Peer review and publication of Dr Darjee's study, which is yet to appear in a journal.
Checked
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 8 supported.
Show each claim
- SupportedOne in three Victorian homicides in 2024 and 2025 involved a person with psychosis, and experts linked the increase to failures in the mental health system.Just In: “43 out of an estimated 126 homicides in Victoria in 2024 and 2025 — about one in three — were committed by people with psychosis”
- Partly supportedA study found a fourfold increase in homicides committed by people with psychotic disorders compared with a decade ago.Just In: “A fourfold increase in the number of homicides committed by people with psychotic disorders in Victoria”
- SupportedPsychiatrists said many of the recent deaths could have been prevented if offenders had received proper treatment.Just In: “many of the recent deaths could have been prevented had the offenders received proper treatment.”
- Partly supportedData from nine forensic psychiatrists showed that 43 of an estimated 126 homicides in Victoria in 2024 and 2025 involved people with psychosis.Just In: “Data compiled by consultant forensic psychiatrist Dr Rajan Darjee suggests 43 out of an estimated 126 homicides in Victoria in 2024 and 2025”
- SupportedHalf of stranger homicides and two in three intimate partner and family homicides in Victoria in 2024 and 2025 were committed by people with psychosis.Just In: “Half of all stranger homicides in Victoria in the same period were committed by people with psychosis, Dr Darjee's research shows, as were two in three intimate partner and family homicides”
- Partly supportedAbout 84 per cent of homicide offenders had previously received mental health treatment, and half were connected with a service at the time.Just In: “almost 84 per cent of homicide offenders in the sample had previously received treatment by mental health services, while half were connected with a service at the time of the incident.”
- SupportedDr Darjee said the figure of 45 people who died was “astounding”.Just In: ““I remember looking at the raw number” — 43 homicides in two years, with 45 victims — “going, this is astounding,” said Dr Darjee”
- SupportedDr Darjee said the majority of the deaths were probably preventable if offenders had received proper treatment.Just In: ““It’s terrible that 45 people have died, especially when you think the majority of those were probably preventable deaths,” Dr Darjee said.”
- SupportedDr Darjee said least-restrictive-care policies had become “negligent” and that compulsory treatment is sometimes “life saving”.Just In: ““With the best of intentions we've instigated these least restrictive care policies but they've become negligent,” Dr Darjee said. “I don't like compelling people [into treatment], I always do it reluctantly, but sometimes it's life saving.””
- SupportedPatrick McGorry said the homicide data reflected a “public policy failure” to build a modern care system after Victoria decommissioned its old psychiatric hospitals in the 1990s.Just In: “Professor McGorry ... said the homicide data was the result of a “public policy failure” to build a modern system of care to replace the state's old psychiatric hospitals, which were decommissioned in the 1990s.”
- SupportedMcGorry said the royal commission’s recommendations had been “delayed or poorly implemented” and that the public “should not feel safe” under the current system.Just In: “the government “has not really invested properly in implementing its recommendations — every single one has been delayed or poorly implemented””
- Partly supportedColmán O'Driscoll said the system risked “swing the pendulum too far the other way”.Just In: “he said the mental health system was at risk of “swinging the pendulum too far the other way””