Paxton, the Texas attorney general, returned to Matt's Rancho Martinez in Allen, the restaurant where he celebrated President Donald Trump's endorsement five and a half months ago, days before he beat Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary runoff. This time he asked a mostly full room, many of whom had already voted, to canvass their contacts. "Understand what is actually at stake here: Texas has never been this close to slipping away," Paxton said. He said every poll shows the race will come down to the wire.
About 220 miles south, Talarico closed his campaign at a concert venue in Austin, where supporters treated the Austin state lawmaker's final event as a festive affair, though not without anxiety that his bid could prove another heartbreak. He noted the contest had become the most expensive US Senate race in American history and called the crowd his "slingshot" in a David-versus-Goliath campaign.
"There's that moment in every game, the last play of the last drive, when you have to leave it all on the field," Talarico said, his voice hoarse after dozens of campaign stops. "Austin, we are in that moment."
The race carries Texas Republicans' 32-year unbeaten streak in statewide races into Election Day on Tuesday, and the candidates spent their final tours on dueling themes: the Texas Revolution for Paxton, complete with the "Come and Take It" flag raised at the Battle of Gonzales, and the small-town football show "Friday Night Lights" for Talarico. Paxton had planned to make his last stand at the Alamo, but a last-minute schedule change brought him back to Collin County, where he recalled holding his first political event when he ran for the Texas House in 2002. "It all started for me right here," he said.
At his rally, Paxton ran through a list of Talarico's past comments and votes that he has described for months as too radical for Texas. He repeated jokes about Trump's penchant for renaming bodies of water and, after describing Talarico's past comments on transgender children, quipped that Texans should transition him out of office. He touted his record of suing the Biden administration and described the stakes as existential for the nation, returning to a favourite metaphor about which side of the Continental Divide a drop of rain falls on.
State Representative Mitch Little, a Lewisville Republican who defended Paxton during his impeachment trial, said Paxton was not supposed to have made it this far given that he "fought down the Bush cartel to become the greatest attorney general in the history of the state". State Senator Bob Hall, R-Edgewood, offered the room a summary of the case: "The first reason is James Talarico. The second reason: James Talarico. And the third reason? Freako Talarico!"
Talarico delivered the message he has taken around the state for 14 months, describing an economic system rigged for the ultrawealthy as the product of a political system corrupted by billionaire and corporate influence. He called Paxton the "embodiment" of that corruption, cast the election as a choice between "a senator who serves you, or who serves megadonors", and framed his campaign as a movement of "people power" against big money, namely Elon Musk and the more than $200 million he spent on the race in support of Paxton. "It's the powers that be versus the powers that ought to be, and it's time for us to start flipping over some tables," he said.
Nearly equal numbers of voters with Democratic and Republican primary histories cast early ballots, a trend the Tribune reports has some GOP operatives worried, since Republicans usually enter Election Day with hundreds of thousands more of their primary voters banked. Paxton said more than 1 million Republicans had yet to vote and that he felt confident of winning if his rally attendees mobilised the Republicans in their circles.
His supporters projected a mix of confidence and nervousness. Michael Kern of Plano spent the day door-knocking and found the 500 houses he visited split "about half and half"; he attributed the competitiveness of the race to the economy. "There are a lot of liberal-minded folks that would like to see a change," Kern said. "I'm not one of them. But, I'm glad they're going to the polls." Jannese Knaus of Plano said she felt good "because Trump said he's going to win in a landslide", while David Knaus likened the contest to World War II, saying Paxton was "not always orthodox" and "not always real polished", but that "they know how to get the job done".
On the Democratic side, Nate Hill, a 26-year-old two-time Trump voter from Ponder wearing a black cowboy hat, said Talarico was the first Democrat he had ever voted for. He said he was disappointed that Trump had embroiled the country in a new war in the Middle East and found Paxton "super corrupt"; of the ads attacking Talarico over his past statements on gender and other culture war issues, he said: "They're really pissing me off. They're just lying to people." David Marcham, 67, called the election "one of those moments for not just Texas, but America to stand up and say we're ready for another path".
Paxton needs to carry Collin County, a fast-changing area north of Dallas, or keep it relatively close. Talarico will need large margins in Travis County and strong showings in surrounding suburbs including Williamson County, where he flipped a Republican-held state House seat in 2018, and his victory will hinge in part on persuading enough Republicans to cross over or leave the Senate race blank.