The Prime Minister’s absence from the campaign trail in the WA byelection has not gone unnoticed. As One Nation’s candidate posted a strong showing, the outcome is being closely analysed by both Labor and the Coalition for what it signals about shifting voter sentiment in the outer suburban seats that often decide national elections.

While official results are still being tallied, initial counts show One Nation polling well above its historical averages in the district, which had been considered a safe seat for one of the major parties. The party’s platform, centred on opposition to lockdowns, migration caps, and cost-of-living relief, appears to have struck a chord with voters disillusioned by the major parties.

The Prime Minister’s decision to stay away was widely interpreted as an attempt to avoid being personally linked to the byelection’s outcome, especially if One Nation performed strongly. Government insiders say the trip was scheduled weeks in advance and was unrelated to the campaign, but political analysts argue it reflects a calculated strategy to limit damage.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has seized on the result, accusing the government of ignoring the concerns of working-class voters in the outer suburbs. “This byelection shows what happens when people feel left behind,” he said in a statement. “The Prime Minister couldn’t even bring himself to show up.”

Meanwhile, One Nation leader Pauline Hanson has framed the byelection as a vindication of her party’s message. “Australians in the outer suburbs are sick of being ignored by the major parties,” she said. “This is just the beginning.”

The result is likely to have national implications. Both Labor and the Coalition are now reassessing their strategies in a belt of electorates stretching from Western Sydney to the outer suburbs of Melbourne and Brisbane, where One Nation has been quietly building a base of support. By-elections often serve as political barometers, and this one suggests a potentially volatile landscape heading into the next federal election.

Voter anger over housing affordability, rising rents, and a sense of cultural change were frequently cited by voters at polling booths. One Nation’s ability to tap into that frustration poses a threat to the major parties’ traditional dominance in these areas.

The government has played down the result, noting that by-elections are historically unreliable predictors of general election outcomes. “One Nation has done well in by-elections before and then faded,” said a Labor strategist who spoke on condition of anonymity. “What matters is how we respond on the ground over the next 18 months.”