The authors compare four state-of-the-art probabilistic AI weather models—ArchesWeatherGen, U-Cast, WeatherNext2, and GenCast-mini—against the physics-based IFS-ENS ensemble.
Probabilistic AI forecasts retain skill for record-breaking weather extremes
Four AI ensemble models outperform physics-based IFS-ENS for heat and cold records, though advantages diminish with lead time and for wind extremes.
Independent
Bastiaan Van Velthoven · Cas Decancq · Diego G. Miralles · Stijn Luca · Thomas Mortier
Research Digest··3 min read
Van Velthoven et al.
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